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The Prospects for War with China

chrisblattman.com

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Re: The Prospects for War with China

#51

Post by Apocryphon »

thoughtstheseus wrote: post #50
Apocryphon wrote: post #42

Curious what anyone thinks of this tactical assessment: > tlear 19 days ago | parent | context | un‑favorite | on: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown > [China can't retake Taiwan], not even remotely close any time in the next 20 years at least. Can you imagine what a landing beach would look like being pounded by drone spotted artillery? See war in Ukraine. Forget the approach, anti ship missiles, mines, shee…

D-Day like beach invasions are unlikely. Blockades and targeted strikes on infrastructure are likely. How long can Taiwan reasonably last without energy and food imports? They U.S. spends most of its military resources on force projection. Not homeland defense so military spending comparisons are not simple IMO. China has been acutely focused on Taiwan and its military resources reflect that.

Drones as an anti-blockade counter?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/10/29/vide...

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-unleashes-mass...

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#53

Post by AnimalMuppet »

UltraViolence wrote: post #32
CogitoCogito wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. … > And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. You make a lot of confident assumptions here which you cannot know for sure.

Biden knows what I know: that it's too costly for the U.S. to disengage economically from China. He's trying to do something about it at least, but Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen. So he's blu…

> Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen.

That's the second time you've made that claim, and it's just as implausible as it was the first time. Companies go bankrupt because of debt. Apple has approximately zero debt, and approximately one gazillion dollars of assets. Losing China's manufacturing would cripple Apple's income. Bankrupt them? No, that's not a logically plausible outcome.

> And I've become convinced the Taiwanese will not fight their own kind, no matter how much they hate the Communists.

That's the second time you've made that claim, too, with no more supporting evidence than you gave the first time. You're convinced? Great, it's good for you to know your own mind. But the rest of us care whether your claim corresponds to reality, and how convinced you are is not supporting data.

Putin has claimed all along that Ukrainians were "their own kind", but the Ukrainians didn't see it that way...

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#54

Post by stale2002 »

thoughtstheseus wrote: post #44
stale2002 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. China would have to fire on US military ships to enforce any such blockage. They aren't going to start a war with the US.

Who knows if PRC will start a war with the U.S. but they will take Taiwan. That policy position has not changed for 70 years.

They won't take Taiwan without hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of their own citizens dying.

The US has sold Taiwan quite a lot of weapons already and continues to do so.

And the fact that china has been threatening to invade the country of Taiwan for 70 years, and yet haven't done so, actually more proves that it is all just talk in the first place.

What's more likely is they they will just continue to saber rattle and not do anything. It's mostly just internal propaganda, and not a real plan.

They don't want those hundreds of thousands or millions of their own citizens to die either.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#55

Post by dirtyid »

Apocryphon wrote: post #48
dirtyid wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At minimum, they'll start doing dangerous intercepts with blockade runners, which PLAN already does with USN in SCS. Around TW, it will be 1,000s of militia ships to make the navigation exceptionally dangerous. They're going to dare US to start war with PRC. There's also simply mining and cratering TW waters + runways to make substantial resupply impossible. US has no solution to a motivated PRC blockade of TW.

Would the PRC also enforce a no-fly zone?

I think likely, but depends on how things escalate, if shooting war commercial aviation will stop anyways. There might be grayzone shenanigans like chaffing ELINT planes trying to support TW. Basically all the perks UKR has access to, PRC will attempt deny to TW.

Ideally for PRC before it goes hot, PRC will try to assert control over TW civil aviation, prevent flights from landing or redirect flights to PRC first to process. No person/thing is going in and out TW without PRC supervision, including foreign or TW nationals PRC wants to hold for leverage.

IMO above is significant but not discussed topic, there are 750k and growing foreign nationals on TW that PRC has leverage over if things turn ugly. 750k "illegally" working on TW without PRC consent, some directly with the ROC government to undermine PRC interests (technically spies). PRC making air space too dangerous = only viable exfiltration is evacuation across maritime routes, one determined by PRC via changing what is / is not accessible with mines. There's going to be international pressure to setup evacuation routes which gives PRC an "in" onto the island, We're talking about thousands of ships moving 750k bodies... the way to TW filled with PLA, the way back filled with civilians, the entire strait satuated with civilian activity that makes targetting an embedded invasion fleet and other outside interventions difficult, i.e. is JP going to restrict US access to basing if means 20k JP nationals get last pick on evacuation priority.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#56

Post by Apocryphon »

dirtyid wrote: post #55
Apocryphon wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would the PRC also enforce a no-fly zone?

I think likely, but depends on how things escalate, if shooting war commercial aviation will stop anyways. There might be grayzone shenanigans like chaffing ELINT planes trying to support TW. Basically all the perks UKR has access to, PRC will attempt deny to TW. Ideally for PRC before it goes hot, PRC will try to assert control over TW civil aviation, prevent flights from landing or redirect flights to PRC first to…

Just imagining the U.S. trying to send supply planes as a Berlin airlift 2. Also Elon Musk making empty social media boasts to send humanitarian aid via SpaceX suborbital rocket deliveries. As with the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Black Sea blockade boats, would be interesting to see how TW and external forces try to workaround a blockade.

> 750k "illegally" working on TW without PRC consent, some directly with the ROC government to undermine PRC interests (technically spies).

This doesn't make any sense. If they are collaborating with the ROC government, why would they want to be sent back to the mainland? Are you saying the PRC would demand them back as spies? Strange sticking point to bring up during a blockade, which is tantamount to wartime. Feels like there would be bigger fish to fry at that point.

Repatriating 750k people would be a bureaucratic paperwork nightmare, let alone a logistical one, and it is not a feat that either government would take seriously.

At most the PRC would demand it and the ROC might humor them as an attempted concession/negotiating move but no way would they attempt to send hundreds of thousands of people in a single year, let alone at once.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#57

Post by CogitoCogito »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #46
UltraViolence wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan was never Chinese to begin with and never has been. Just because the Nationalists fled there doesn't give them the right to invade or lay claim to the island. They could, for all I care, invade Taiwan and relocate all the Chinese to China and leave Taiwan well alone.

Taiwan was part of China from 1683 onwards. It became a Japanese colony in 1895, and then was given back to China at the end of WWII, in 1945.

The China of 1895 no longer exists. There are now three successor countries: Taiwan/ROC, China/PRC and Mongolia. Taiwan has never been part of the country today known as “China”.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#58

Post by CogitoCogito »

rsj_hn wrote: post #41
CogitoCogito wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US isn’t threatening to invade Taiwan. China is.

The article is about prospects of war between the US and China. According to official US policy, which is the One China policy, Taiwan and mainland China are the same country, and any disputes between the mainland and Taiwan is an intra-chinese dispute, not a dispute between two separate countries, and not anything that involves the U.S. at all. Now if, for some reason, Taiwan declares independence, then it will be u…

> The article is about prospects of war between the US and China. According to official US policy, which is the One China policy, Taiwan and mainland China are the same country, and any disputes between the mainland and Taiwan is an intra-chinese dispute, not a dispute between two separate countries, and not anything that involves the U.S. at all.

The US has never recognized PRC claims to Taiwan. The US “One China Policy” does not include “Taiwan is part of PRC territory”.

But I’ll admit the US policy is a bit vague and confusing so many people (including apparently you) don’t understand US policy in this matter.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#59

Post by CogitoCogito »

UltraViolence wrote: post #32
CogitoCogito wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. … > And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. You make a lot of confident assumptions here which you cannot know for sure.

Biden knows what I know: that it's too costly for the U.S. to disengage economically from China. He's trying to do something about it at least, but Apple has already signaled that only 25% of iPhones will be made outside of China by 2025. That will leave the company completely vulnerable if were to be cut-off from its Chinese suppliers. I predict the company will simply go bankrupt if that were to happen. So he's blu…

> So he's bluffing to prevent China from invading, that's only logical. If push comes to shove, however, he'll pull back from the brink. Taiwan simply isn't worth fighting over, even if it would mean losing influence in Asia.

> And I've become convinced the Taiwanese will not fight their own kind, no matter how much they hate the Communists.

Well I guess all we can do is wait and see if these predictions of yours come through.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#60

Post by dirtyid »

Apocryphon wrote: post #56
dirtyid wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think likely, but depends on how things escalate, if shooting war commercial aviation will stop anyways. There might be grayzone shenanigans like chaffing ELINT planes trying to support TW. Basically all the perks UKR has access to, PRC will attempt deny to TW. Ideally for PRC before it goes hot, PRC will try to assert control over TW civil aviation, prevent flights from landing or redirect flights to PRC first to…

Just imagining the U.S. trying to send supply planes as a Berlin airlift 2. Also Elon Musk making empty social media boasts to send humanitarian aid via SpaceX suborbital rocket deliveries. As with the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Black Sea blockade boats, would be interesting to see how TW and external forces try to workaround a blockade. > 750k "illegally" working on TW without PRC consent, some directly with…

It's a consideration for:

> things turn ugly

PRC's leverage start after shooting starts (like TSMC), when PRC closes air and maritime space and specifies repatriation corridors will stop first on mainland for processing. International community sees all the cratered TW runways and entire TW coast except some West locations are saturated with mines and conclude, there's no other choice - can't airlift or merchant fleet into what's not accessbile. The process will be an abbreviated shitshow done as quickly as possible (Dunkirk style) because foreign nationals are already trapped in a warzone (like in openning of UKR war).

Countries take repatrioting thier citizens seriously, and since PRC has ultimate veto over entry/egress to island, they have leverage, especially if there is a timer ticking down to when the island will run out of water and food. No one wants their nationals trapped and dying on hunger game island. Unless TW starts holding foreign nationals hostage, they maybe compelled by international pressure to agree to PRC coordinated evacuation points, which may include beach heads under PRC occupation (or relunctantly surrendered to PLA), where every ship that arrives to pickup evacuees is going be loaded with PLA. It's an undertaking that will require thousands of ships over weeks of intensive activity that will make the strait not engagable to defenders or outside meddlers due to intermiggling of civilian and military activies. Imagine fallout if a TW / US missile sinks a boat full of Philippinos (or imagine if PRC engineers false flag of that). Maybe international community can also convince PRC not to do this, but what incentive is there for PRC to listen? The one's that will sanction will sanction anyways and get last dibs and buy PRC some time, the ones who cooperate will get priority. Of course all speculation, but there are many exploitable dynamics inherent in TW being an island with unrecognized sovereignty.

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