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The Prospects for War with China

chrisblattman.com

41–50 of 87 posts

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#41
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

counterpoint: The US is free at any time to stop invading other countries, trying to overthrow other countries, and enter into conflicts thousands of miles from their borders. But really, it doesn't seem that they do. The US has invaded or attacked over 120 countries since 1991[1]. Absolutely none of them were a threat to the United States. How many countries has China invaded in the same period? How many has it bomb…

The US isn’t threatening to invade Taiwan. China is.

The article is about prospects of war between the US and China. According to official US policy, which is the One China policy, Taiwan and mainland China are the same country, and any disputes between the mainland and Taiwan is an intra-chinese dispute, not a dispute between two separate countries, and not anything that involves the U.S. at all.

Now if, for some reason, Taiwan declares independence, then it will be up to other nations to recognize that declaration of independence or not. But that has not happened.

Let me ask you, did you recognize the independence of Donetsk People's Republic, Lugansk People's Republic, South Ossetia, Kurdish Republic in Iraq, or The Republic of Tigray? Each of these had de facto control -- they have their own police, flag, they control their territory, etc. Some even have oil. These actually declared independence whereas Taiwan never did.

But you will respond, other nations didn't recognize their independence, to which I will ask, who recognizes Taiwanese independence? Not even Taiwan. So what we have here is the phenomenon of a "breakaway region". That is, territory in one nation that is not under the control of the central government, but under local control in that territory, but which no one recognizes as an independent nation. There are many such breakaway regions in the world. Usually the central government tries to conquer the breakaway region, and sometimes it fails. This is generally not considered an "invasion".

Do you think it was an invasion when Georgia tried to reconquer South Ossetia, or when Ukraine attacked the DNR and LPR or when Ethiopia attacked Tigray? Or did you view that as an internal matter, of putting down a rebellious breakaway region? Think carefully before you answer, as we are looking for consistency. What about Serbia and the province of Kosovo? Moldova and Transnistria?

It does seem like there is a whole lot of cherry picking going on here, where if there is an enemy of the U.S. fighting a breakaway region, then we have to honor the bold independence movement, but when there is a friend of the US fighting a breakaway republic, then we condemn the evil separatists. In both cases, the US ends up fighting on one side of what is really a civil war we have no business involving ourselves in, and because we choose sides purely based on friend/enemy distinctions and not according to any consistent principles, it sure looks a lot like more international meddling.

Therefore I reject any moral impetus that forces the US to get itself involved in trying to support or oppose separatist movements half way around the world, or to pick sides in civil wars. We lack the military capability, we lack popular support, and we need to stop adopting these self-destructive and globally destructive policies.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#42
Curious what anyone thinks of this tactical assessment:

> tlear 19 days ago | parent | context | un‑favorite | on: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

> [China can't retake Taiwan], not even remotely close any time in the next 20 years at least. Can you imagine what a landing beach would look like being pounded by drone spotted artillery? See war in Ukraine. Forget the approach, anti ship missiles, mines, sheer volume of logistics needed. Stepping on the landing beach is a suicide without absolutely astronomical advantage in air power and ability to suffer huge attrition, even then.. 155mm hidden under camo/thermal nets, DJI drone rigged with magazines of small bombs.. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson Childs play, this would make Diep and Galipoli look like walk in the park.

> I would go as far as to say that US Army + Marines + Navy could not land on Taiwan without suffering multiple brigades of attrition AFTER at least a year long blockade and air campaign. It is that hard.

> PRC has to surpass US in GDP, then spend 10-20 years of US level military spending, then maybe.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33248946

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#43

I expect a permanent blockade of Taiwan to prevent inbound sensors and shooters and outbound advanced tech within one year. Today Taiwan and U.S. military are not integrated the way the U.S. is with other Allies and partners: Korea, Japan, NATO, etc. Ukraine is case and point how valuable that integration can be. The PRC will be adamant that Taiwan not receive AI (battlefield mgmt. software, communications, sensors)…

I don't think so. China would have to fire on US military ships to enforce any such blockage. They aren't going to start a war with the US.

At minimum, they'll start doing dangerous intercepts with blockade runners, which PLAN already does with USN in SCS. Around TW, it will be 1,000s of militia ships to make the navigation exceptionally dangerous. They're going to dare US to start war with PRC. There's also simply mining and cratering TW waters + runways to make substantial resupply impossible. US has no solution to a motivated PRC blockade of TW.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#44

I expect a permanent blockade of Taiwan to prevent inbound sensors and shooters and outbound advanced tech within one year. Today Taiwan and U.S. military are not integrated the way the U.S. is with other Allies and partners: Korea, Japan, NATO, etc. Ukraine is case and point how valuable that integration can be. The PRC will be adamant that Taiwan not receive AI (battlefield mgmt. software, communications, sensors)…

I don't think so. China would have to fire on US military ships to enforce any such blockage. They aren't going to start a war with the US.

Who knows if PRC will start a war with the U.S. but they will take Taiwan. That policy position has not changed for 70 years.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to find this joke amusing but not anymore. Not even the most hardcore Taiwanese independence advocate calls China "West Taiwan" because nobody in Taiwan wants to invade China (Except for some of the older generation and they call China "The Republic of China"). The idea of "West Taiwan" is so preposterous but I know it came as a natural byproduct of the "TAIWAN #1" meme, just to piss of Chinese people that wer…

Quoted post unavailable.

Genuinely curious what your intention is with this response.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easier said than done. Preservation of national sovereignty is one of the touchiest issues in modern Chinese politics. This has to do with Chinese history. For China, the modern era essentially began when British gunboats arrived in 1840 and forced the Qing dynasty to open up its ports to the opium trade. There followed a series of conflicts in which China was progressively humiliated and ever more dominated by forei…

Taiwan was never Chinese to begin with and never has been. Just because the Nationalists fled there doesn't give them the right to invade or lay claim to the island. They could, for all I care, invade Taiwan and relocate all the Chinese to China and leave Taiwan well alone.

Taiwan was part of China from 1683 onwards. It became a Japanese colony in 1895, and then was given back to China at the end of WWII, in 1945.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is 100% your own opinion, and no one has said anything about 'nuclear' war. Of course no one wants to fight, if it came down to it, many, including me, would have to defend ourselves.

From what I've seen I've come to the conclusion the Taiwanese will not fight. You talk about defending yourself, but you can just keep still and do nothing. As I expect you will. A nuclear war is a certainty when there's a confrontation between nuclear armed powers. If we lose, we use nukes. If they lose, they'll use nukes. Ergo: it's inevitable there will be an all-out nuclear exchange.

Please tell us what exactly you have seen that makes you come to the conclusion that “the Taiwanese” will not fight?

Were you referring to the Taiwanese people? The Taiwanese army? The Taiwanese government? The specific person that said they would defend themself?

Do you also feel that a nuclear war is inevitable between Russia and the US because of what is happening currently in the Ukraine?

Whether the US joins the fight is very much still up for debate. Whether “the Taiwanese” will fight - is probably better left for actual Taiwanese people to comment on.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#48
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. China would have to fire on US military ships to enforce any such blockage. They aren't going to start a war with the US.

At minimum, they'll start doing dangerous intercepts with blockade runners, which PLAN already does with USN in SCS. Around TW, it will be 1,000s of militia ships to make the navigation exceptionally dangerous. They're going to dare US to start war with PRC. There's also simply mining and cratering TW waters + runways to make substantial resupply impossible. US has no solution to a motivated PRC blockade of TW.

Would the PRC also enforce a no-fly zone?

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Genuinely curious what your intention is with this response.

I love the Spartan response to his invaders with overwhelming numbers. Taiwan is no match for the PRC army but they are a sovereign country and should stand up to the bully.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#50

Curious what anyone thinks of this tactical assessment: > tlear 19 days ago | parent | context | un‑favorite | on: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown > [China can't retake Taiwan], not even remotely close any time in the next 20 years at least. Can you imagine what a landing beach would look like being pounded by drone spotted artillery? See war in Ukraine. Forget the approach, anti ship missiles, mines, shee…

D-Day like beach invasions are unlikely. Blockades and targeted strikes on infrastructure are likely. How long can Taiwan reasonably last without energy and food imports?

They U.S. spends most of its military resources on force projection. Not homeland defense so military spending comparisons are not simple IMO. China has been acutely focused on Taiwan and its military resources reflect that.

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