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The Prospects for War with China

chrisblattman.com

21–30 of 87 posts

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#21

Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with. What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed…

This is 100% your own opinion, and no one has said anything about 'nuclear' war. Of course no one wants to fight, if it came down to it, many, including me, would have to defend ourselves.

That's just your opinion.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security noise on speculation-- China might invade Taiwan. China is free to anytime declare their intention of never invading Taiwan. China is free to anytime officially recognize the fact that the PRC and the ROC are two separate governments of two separate countries. China is free to anytime c…

Taiwan claims that China belongs to them. Why do you not require them to declare anything?

Because they’re not constantly threatening China with war.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#23
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security noise on speculation-- China might invade Taiwan. China is free to anytime declare their intention of never invading Taiwan. China is free to anytime officially recognize the fact that the PRC and the ROC are two separate governments of two separate countries. China is free to anytime c…

counterpoint: The US is free at any time to stop invading other countries, trying to overthrow other countries, and enter into conflicts thousands of miles from their borders. But really, it doesn't seem that they do. The US has invaded or attacked over 120 countries since 1991[1]. Absolutely none of them were a threat to the United States. How many countries has China invaded in the same period? How many has it bomb…

The US isn’t threatening to invade Taiwan. China is.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#24

Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with. What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed…

> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this.

> And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed forces will simply throw away their arms and go home. Do we want our soldiers to lose their lives for a people that hasn't even demonstrated their will to fight for their independence? Fuck that!

For the US, the war over Taiwan is not about Taiwan. It is essential to understand this. It is why the US will definitively go to war. If China takes Taiwan, US influence and interest in the entire region falls like dominoes.

The threat to US hegemony is more important than the market value of a few companies.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security noise on speculation-- China might invade Taiwan. China is free to anytime declare their intention of never invading Taiwan. China is free to anytime officially recognize the fact that the PRC and the ROC are two separate governments of two separate countries. China is free to anytime c…

Taiwan claims that China belongs to them. Why do you not require them to declare anything?

Do you understand that Taiwan would love to do exactly that, but that China would take such a statement as a declaration of independence and would engage in military action?

Taiwan literally wants to do exactly what you proposed. They want to renounce having anything to do with China.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#26
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security noise on speculation-- China might invade Taiwan. China is free to anytime declare their intention of never invading Taiwan. China is free to anytime officially recognize the fact that the PRC and the ROC are two separate governments of two separate countries. China is free to anytime c…

counterpoint: The US is free at any time to stop invading other countries, trying to overthrow other countries, and enter into conflicts thousands of miles from their borders. But really, it doesn't seem that they do. The US has invaded or attacked over 120 countries since 1991[1]. Absolutely none of them were a threat to the United States. How many countries has China invaded in the same period? How many has it bomb…

[deleted]

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#27

Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with. What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed…

> What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. > And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed forces will simply throw away their arms and go home. Do we want our soldiers to lose their lives for a people that hasn't even demonstrated their will to fig…

And a nuclear war will not deprecate U.S. influence in Asia and worldwide? We would simply cease to exist as a nation with 80% of the populace dead, dying from wounds / radiation and starvation.

Losing Taiwan may give us a bloody nose, but it's certainly not an existential threat.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#28

I call it “West Taiwan,” not “China.”

I used to find this joke amusing but not anymore. Not even the most hardcore Taiwanese independence advocate calls China "West Taiwan" because nobody in Taiwan wants to invade China (Except for some of the older generation and they call China "The Republic of China"). The idea of "West Taiwan" is so preposterous but I know it came as a natural byproduct of the "TAIWAN #1" meme, just to piss of Chinese people that wer…

No post body was provided.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#29
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish we could just de-escalate the situation with China. Dial back some of the economic squabbling as well as the military posturing. The West and China need each other economically, and both Biden and Xi are smart enough-- and old enough to remember nuclear terror-- to not want WWIII. I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security…

> I feel like most of the escalation is coming from the West though. They're the ones tossing around sanctions and national-security noise on speculation-- China might invade Taiwan. China is free to anytime declare their intention of never invading Taiwan. China is free to anytime officially recognize the fact that the PRC and the ROC are two separate governments of two separate countries. China is free to anytime c…

Easier said than done.

Preservation of national sovereignty is one of the touchiest issues in modern Chinese politics.

This has to do with Chinese history. For China, the modern era essentially began when British gunboats arrived in 1840 and forced the Qing dynasty to open up its ports to the opium trade. There followed a series of conflicts in which China was progressively humiliated and ever more dominated by foreign powers - the Europeans and Japanese. China had to allow opium in, had to exempt Europeans from Chinese law on Chinese territory, and had to give the Europeans and Japanese enclaves and spheres of influence within China. The British took Hong Kong, the Germans took Jiaozhou Bay, various countries took parts of Shanghai. When Chinese peasants rebelled against foreign influence and started killing Europeans, a eight-nation army landed at Tianjin,[0] marched to Beijing, burned down the Summer Palace, and forced China to pay a massive indemnity. After the Chinese people overthrew the imperial system, the new republic was, in fact, controlled by various local warlords. The Japanese progressively took more of China, before launching a full-blown invasion of the rest of China in the 1930s. A core goal of both the Nationalist and the Communist parties was to re-establish Chinese national sovereignty.

What put an end to all of this was the end of the Chinese Civil War and the establishment of the "New China," as the Chinese call their post-1949 state.

Because of this history, the issue of national sovereignty is incredibly sensitive in China. It's easy to say, "China should just give up its claim to Taiwan," but that would be an incredibly explosive suggestion in China, especially if it were something that China was forced to do under outside pressure.

Finally, I'll add that in China, the ROC is not seen as a separate country from the PRC. Taiwan is seen as the last redoubt of the old Chinese government. This is also how the ROC understood itself until fairly recently. For most people in China, asking them to cede Taiwan is asking them to cede part of China, which is a non-starter.

0. A portrait of soldiers from the eight nations (plus Australia and the British Raj, minus Russia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight-Nation_Alliance#/media/F...

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#30

Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with. What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this. And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed…

> it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with.

While this is the official stance, we all know that in practice, the US sees Taiwan as an independent country to not escalate the situation.

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