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People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

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Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#51

Post by bitwize »

bluedino wrote: post #17

You think guys like Bill Gates think about what they are having for dinner? They don't debate it with their wives. Food just appears. The cook knows what they like and they probably stick to that. I would consider myself "filthy rich" when food just appeared for me.

Other elites use a trick I call Smurfette's closet: fill your closet with identical copies of a single outfit (much like Smurfette has a closet full of that one dress she wears). That way you won't be paralyzed by picking out what to wear. Barack Obama and Steve Jobs have done this.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#52

Post by bitwize »

BurningFrog wrote: post #37

An old Agile technique I keep in mind is that if it's hard to decide which design is better, that means they're equally good! So just decide by flipping a coin and move on to productive work!

If it's hard to decide which is better, try them both and find out. Wisdom from Carmack.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#53

Post by powerhour »

adverbly wrote: post #48
Waterluvian wrote: post #16

My “anti shampoo aisle” strategy (that drives my wife mad) is to stop at the first item that satisfies my requirements. “You didn’t even look at the back of the menu!!” “Good point. I’ll start reading menus from random locations each time.”

> Good point. I’ll start reading menus from random locations each time. Not sure that will do the trick... Imagine a long list with the only two satisfactory items being right next to each other... You'd almost always end up with the first in the list. Picking a random direction is slightly more robust, but still fails sandwich scenarios... You need to shuffle the menu entirely somehow...

That's only a problem if the difference between the two sandwiches is nontrivial. If I'm satisfied by either option, always going with option A is just fine, IMO.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#54

Post by jquery »

changoplatanero wrote: post #26
brian_cloutier wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not a paradox but it can be irrational. When the two choices have similar utility the cost of distinguishing them is high and the benefit of making the correct choice is low. There is a crossover point where it does not matter which option you choose, putting more effort into your decision can only leave you worse off, and this article claims we tend to continue putting in the effort well past that point.

A friend was spending forever trying to decide which of two toothpastes to buy at Target. The cost of avoiding calculating which is better by just buying both was only $3. In cases like that I think it's irrational to spend so much time thinking about it.

A grandmaster logician descends from logic heaven to tell you it was actually rational and asks you to figure out why that it so. What is your response?

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#55

Post by klyrs »

I spend eons shopping for things, and it's not a mistake. The trick is, there's a third option: I don't buy most things I want to buy. I have my criteria, and I won't purchase something I don't want. I'll look again in a month or so. This is an incredibly effective way to save money. But, obviously, it doesn't work when you really need something -- then, I try to tally points for and against, and accept that I'll be dissatisfied.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#56

Post by Folcon »

tacitusarc wrote: post #49
quest88 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me it should be intuitive. My test is "Will I accept either outcome if I flip a coin?". Is so, flip the coin. If not, pick the option that prevents me from flipping a coin.

Personally, I like the strategy of flipping a coin as soon as the preference is not obvious, and then picking the other one if you realize you don’t like the coin flip.

I love this approach, it's effectively a forcing mechanism for revealing preference.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#57

Post by ryanklee »

fizzynut wrote: post #50
ryanklee wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For certain types of decisions, one can safely rely on prior experience. I know to a high degree of certainty that most entrees at a moderate to high quality restaurant have roughly the same value, therefore choosing quickly is best because there's little to discover and little to gain from the discovery. Many aesthetic choices or choices of mere preference are like this. Other classes of issues are known in advance…

I think the process of making good decisions about "big" things should involve practicing making many more decisions about smaller things and evaluating the outcome. There are a lot of insightful heuristics from decision making that can make big decisions much better/easier/etc. I don't think people would spend any more time on big decisions if they made faster/fewer decisions with little "value" to gain, if anything…

For sure, sharpening analysis chops is a good reason, but in a world of finite time, and an overabundance of important decisions to make regarding one's life, there's no shortage of analysis fodder to begin with.

And no doubt that sometimes it's just nice and pleasurable and interesting to deliberate over anything at all, making small things grand, but it's also good to know when it's actually optional.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#58

Post by galaxyLogic »

quest88 wrote: post #24
twblalock wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but how do you know a given decision is one of those decisions?

For me it should be intuitive. My test is "Will I accept either outcome if I flip a coin?". Is so, flip the coin. If not, pick the option that prevents me from flipping a coin.

The issue is it is hard to know whether the two (or more) choices are equally good.

If you have no way of knowing which choice is better then you would flip the coin of course. The problem is there typically is a way to possibly learn more about which is better, AND HOW MUCH, by studying the choices. The "How much" -part is crucial. One choice might lead to core meltdown.

Often such study does not provide any further information about which is better. But it might. You just don't know. Except if you are lucky and the answer is immediately obvious.

So if it looks like you have two choices A and B, it is more typically the case that you in fact have THREE choices:

1. Choose A

2. Choose B

3. Spend more time studying which is better, and how much, A or B

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#59

Post by bodfinch »

bitwize wrote: post #47

This is like a Sally-Ann problem for scientists. The Sally-Ann problem is used to test "theory of mind" in autists: the subject watches Sally place a ball in box A and leave the room. Ann enters the room and removes the ball, placing it in box B. Sally returns to the room, looking for her ball. Which box will she open first? Those supposedly without "theory of mind" will answer box B, because that's where the ball is…

This Pepsi and Coke. I don’t really care the difference, is it cold and is it a Cola? Give it to me
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