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People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

robkhenderson.substack.com

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Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#31

Post by fellowniusmonk »

Waterluvian wrote: post #16

My “anti shampoo aisle” strategy (that drives my wife mad) is to stop at the first item that satisfies my requirements. “You didn’t even look at the back of the menu!!” “Good point. I’ll start reading menus from random locations each time.”

I like this! I have a slightly different one but I'll try yours next time I am out.

Mine is:

'I like being surprised, if you have any love it or hate it "controversial" items I'd like to try that, otherwise surprise me :-)'

Along with a genuinely friendly demeanor it is almost always a delight.

Worst case scenario they just give me the most popular item on the menu, occasionally I get something weird tasting but never bad and always fun.

No menu required.

That's my hack when life is demanding that I make too many decisions and I'd like someone else to be taken care of that at meal time.

(Only when the server and environment doesn't seem soul crushing/crushed, I would never do this at a chotchkie's.)

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#32

Post by rileymat2 »

quest88 wrote: post #24
twblalock wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but how do you know a given decision is one of those decisions?

For me it should be intuitive. My test is "Will I accept either outcome if I flip a coin?". Is so, flip the coin. If not, pick the option that prevents me from flipping a coin.

But the original question remains, how do you know that until you have analyzed it?

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#33

Post by paulpauper »

Researchers found that people spent longer choosing between options that were roughly equal in value than between options in which there was a large value disparity.

“Value” here means how much participants said they would be willing to pay for each item at the start of the study.

When shown a disfavored food alongside a favored food, people chose fast. When shown a favored food alongside another favored food, people took a while. But this is irrational (at least in the economic sense).

When making decisions, we spend too much time choosing between options with roughly equal utility.

How is this a paradox. I don't get it. Of course, if having to choose between a king-size KitKat vs. kid size Reece's or kid size Snicker's most will choose the KitKat because it's bigger, but otherwise will deliberate longer between the roughly equally-sized candy. Because they are not homogenous except for size. If they were identical, then it would be the same. Food has many other values besides utility, such as taste, which cannot be inspected in the same way size can be.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#35

Post by beckingz »

quest88 wrote: post #24
twblalock wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but how do you know a given decision is one of those decisions?

For me it should be intuitive. My test is "Will I accept either outcome if I flip a coin?". Is so, flip the coin. If not, pick the option that prevents me from flipping a coin.

Flip a coin and it will make your decision for you.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#36

Post by ryanklee »

rileymat2 wrote: post #32
quest88 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me it should be intuitive. My test is "Will I accept either outcome if I flip a coin?". Is so, flip the coin. If not, pick the option that prevents me from flipping a coin.

But the original question remains, how do you know that until you have analyzed it?

For certain types of decisions, one can safely rely on prior experience. I know to a high degree of certainty that most entrees at a moderate to high quality restaurant have roughly the same value, therefore choosing quickly is best because there's little to discover and little to gain from the discovery. Many aesthetic choices or choices of mere preference are like this. Other classes of issues are known in advance to be both trickier and yield real, effective outcome differences, these are often big life decisions that act as life's value centers, e.g., which house, which partner, which employer, etc.

It's of course possible to be wrong in either direction -- this difference matters though i think it doesn't and vice versa -- but in general, we tend to be pretty good about taking seriously the things that really are serious, but pretty bad at not wasting time on things that don't matter much. This shows up in the paradox of choice, but really just imagine someone hemming and hawing over two brands of cereal in the aisle at Trader Joe's and you get the picture.

So the practical problem isn't really "how do you know until you analyze," because we more often fall into opposite the trap and waste time systematically attempting to optimize choices where there is little value to be gained. We should step back in more cases and remind ourselves that most differences make no difference at all. Save your time and energy for the ones that do.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#38

Post by alexanderdmitri »

chii wrote: post #29
brian_cloutier wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not a paradox but it can be irrational. When the two choices have similar utility the cost of distinguishing them is high and the benefit of making the correct choice is low. There is a crossover point where it does not matter which option you choose, putting more effort into your decision can only leave you worse off, and this article claims we tend to continue putting in the effort well past that point.

> this article claims we tend to continue putting in the effort well past that point. it's because people have the irrational belief that their thinking and reasoning more about a problem/decision makes their outcome better. I think the common symptom found in software is design analysis paralysis. A software team end up using tonnes of time fretting about design choices (often as a committee), rather than just use t…

> it's because people have the irrational belief that their thinking and reasoning more about a problem/decision makes their outcome better.

i'm not sure this is correct. i bet it often comes down to whether we've found an [emotionally] satisfying answer/outcome.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#39

Post by em-bee »

havblue wrote: post #34

"Honey, a lot of these houses are great! We keep getting outbid because we won't put money down fast enough!" "You just want us me make a decision and get it over with!" "Yes! Exactly!!!"

it's worse. all of these options are only 80% of what i want. i finally give up and pick one. when it's to late to change i find a better one.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#40

Post by [deleted] »

julienb_sea wrote: post #14

The irrationality presumes: 1. That the decision-making activity itself is wasteful. 2. That the decision-making time would, if not consumed by decision making, be spent elsewhere in a more productive manner. These are hardly safe assumptions. The discussion itself can be enjoyable. The faster decision making can create less certainty in the decision and encourage regret, or create conflict with others. The time gain…

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