18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated • Hacker News Board

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#51

Post by xivzgrev » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:01 AM UTC

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

I don’t think it matters if 100% is vaccinated. What matters is new cases and deaths. As long as those are steady or going up we’re going to be masking and social distancing until the end of time. Once it goes down and stays down, that’s when gradual rule relaxation happens, and mass vaccination is the hoped-for silver bullet for it

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#52

Post by rsfern » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:02 AM UTC

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #45

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

I believe we can add the vaccinated and the recovered, yes? About 25 million have recovered so far. That puts us at about 12% 'immune'.

As far as I understand those who were infected and recovered are still encouraged to get the vaccine. I’m not sure what that does to their priority in the vaccination queue though.

I think the length of time recovery and vaccination confer are still not really nailed down

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#53

Post by dragonwriter » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:03 AM UTC

jjoonathan wrote: post #43

dragonwriter wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's the one affecting me: insurance companies use pricing to ensure that my employer picks a new plan every year, which always has an extremely decrepit sign-up process every year, which no doubt shakes some fraction of the workforce from going through it at all. That's probably not the insurer’s intent, since it's in their interest to have the most people possible enrolled.

People who elect the benefit but don't complete the signup process are still enrolled, they just can't consume the services until they run the gauntlet, discouraging service use and increasing profit.

Under the ACA Medical Loss Ratio rule, insurers must refund premiums if they exceed a certain percentage of reimbursed costs across a plan (there's a couple different tiers with different limits.)

In order to maximize profits, they need maximum utilization, which takes completing the signup, not just idle premium payment.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#54

Post by peytn » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:03 AM UTC

cperciva wrote: post #31

peytn wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t seem like that condition leads to termination. As things return to normal, fewer surveillance tests will be conducted by definition, so the test positivity rate will rise.

In BC we've learned that we need to distinguish between the positivity rate for "testing due to symptoms or known exposure" and "testing for screening" (e.g. the film industry tests all their crew daily). The former positivity rate is much higher, but the latter may be more useful as a long-term trendline to follow.

I could get behind that. Hopefully we learn to make that distinction without enduring too much in the way of suffering.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#55

Post by IgorPartola » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:03 AM UTC

cthaeh wrote: post #29

rmk wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When children are vaccinated. It's not clear if the vaccine confers sterilizing immunity, i.e., you are protected against the bug and also can't spread the disease, so most people who have children or are around children will ideally not take undue risks. I'm not sure if under-16 cohorts' trials are underway already. If they are, and if children are going to be vaccinated before their next school term starts, then so…

Children are almost immune from the virus. Everyone below 40 is also extremely extremely unlikely to die from the virus, just to a lesser extent.

First, that’s factually incorrect. Second, children can transmit COVID even if they don’t get severe cases. Ever send a kid to school or daycare and then spend a year or two sick with everything every child in that school or daycare had? Kids spread cold/flu like viruses probably faster than anyone.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#56

Post by AmericanChopper » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:03 AM UTC

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

Most likely never. I can’t see any other way of interpreting this “new normal” idea that’s been so heavily promoted. Based solely on observations of the past, I would expect governments around the world to hold onto their newly established power, and continue to use it far into the future in whichever ways end up suiting them. After 9/11 the government decided that it needed to temporarily infringe upon everybody’s liberties while they sorted the problem out. 20 years later, that is literally just the “new normal” that we’ve been living with since then (some portions of the patriot act actually failed to be renewed last year, but that’s happened in the past and their expiry didn’t last long, so I’d be very surprised if this time was permanent). I would expect any decision to ease restrictions to be an entirely political one, and I would expect them to be reimplemented again in the future whatever ways end up suiting our current and future governments.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#57

Post by sterlind » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:04 AM UTC

travisoneill1 wrote: post #42

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

Should be 1 - 1/R0, right?

R0 (and vaccine efficacy) may change with variants though. It's a moving target and not a static threshold.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#58

Post by worker767424 » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:05 AM UTC

caseysoftware wrote: post #38

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

No one is quite sure but we're a LONG way from it.. and that's without addressing the fear/trauma that's been inflicted on otherwise healthy+exceptionally low risk people. From a month ago: Dr. Anthony Fauci now says as much as 90 percent of the population may need to get vaccinated or infected to achieve herd immunity against COVID-19 — admitting in a new interview that he has been intentionally raising the bar base…

> on what he thinks the country is ready to hear

He does have a track record of being dishonest about things. Part of the reason he drug his feet on masks was he was worried about shortages. It makes sense, but I really don't like the "I know what's best for you" paternalism.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#59

Post by wcchandler » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:05 AM UTC

IgorPartola wrote: post #47

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

The number I have seen quotes form Dr Fauci is 70-85%. However I have seen no studies so far that show that either of the vaccines used in the US slow down the spread of COVID, just that they prevent severe cases. Also neither has been tested in children under 16 which is obviously a large population.

.7 * 331m =~ 231m.

If we average 1 million per day, we have 231 days to go, which is Aug 25th.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#60

Post by unishark » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:06 AM UTC

> * Herd immunity numbers assume no ongoing vaccination -- they more or less say, "If life went back to normal, would the virus slow down or speed up?"

I'd say ongoing vaccination (after herd immunity is reached) is irrelevant to the herd immunity calculation. Is that what you meant? Though we'd obviously still need vaccinations as much of the world will not have herd immunity for a long time, if ever.

And certainly the percentage needed will differ whether we assume social distancing and travel restrictions are continued or not. Personally I hope we keep a lot of it, at least a long while more. I really hate catching flu's and colds.