18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated • Hacker News Board

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#41

Post by HenryKissinger » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:55 AM UTC

caseysoftware wrote: post #38

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

No one is quite sure but we're a LONG way from it.. and that's without addressing the fear/trauma that's been inflicted on otherwise healthy+exceptionally low risk people. From a month ago: Dr. Anthony Fauci now says as much as 90 percent of the population may need to get vaccinated or infected to achieve herd immunity against COVID-19 — admitting in a new interview that he has been intentionally raising the bar base…

People are so impatient nowadays.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#42

Post by travisoneill1 » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:55 AM UTC

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

Should be 1 - 1/R0, right?

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#43

Post by jjoonathan » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:55 AM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #37

jjoonathan wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kaiser is one of the good ones, too. How can it be worse? Well, you can not have insurance, but you already knew that one. You can have an insurance company that's poorly integrated with providers, resulting in "edge cases" that somehow always involve you paying more. A lot more. Here's the one affecting me, though: insurance companies use pricing to ensure that my employer picks a new plan every year, which always h…

> Here's the one affecting me: insurance companies use pricing to ensure that my employer picks a new plan every year, which always has an extremely decrepit sign-up process every year, which no doubt shakes some fraction of the workforce from going through it at all. That's probably not the insurer’s intent, since it's in their interest to have the most people possible enrolled.

People who elect the benefit but don't complete the signup process are still enrolled, they just can't consume the services until they run the gauntlet, discouraging service use and increasing profit.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#44

Post by randmeerkat » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:56 AM UTC

repsilat wrote: post #27

randmeerkat wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to this yahoo article about 65 - 70% of the population needs to be vaccinated until we can get back to normal. That said there still may be mutations or other complicating factors that could throw a wrench in things. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/around-65-75-of-the-populatio...

That number has been thrown around for here immunity. But I don't think it answers the GP's question because * Herd immunity numbers assume no ongoing vaccination -- they more or less say, "If life went back to normal, would the virus slow down or speed up?" * Age-related mortality and age-related vaccination rates are important. If we vaccinate all of the people who are at serious risk, the danger is mostly gone. Th…

Imho you’re underestimating the impact of the disease in general. Disease is much more than who lives or dies, there’s also people who “survive”. A number of asymptomatic covid patients have severe lung damage. Vaccinating “at risk” people who might die doesn’t account for all the people who might live permanently disabled lives as a result of a covid infection.

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/01/14/asymptomatic-covid-l...

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#45

Post by 11thEarlOfMar » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:56 AM UTC

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

I believe we can add the vaccinated and the recovered, yes?

About 25 million have recovered so far. That puts us at about 12% 'immune'.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#46

Post by jariel » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:57 AM UTC

Here is a interactive chart showing various nations [1]

Israel will be #1 by far. They have apparently paid $65/dose or something like that, far ahead of what others have paid, moreover, the dealing looks a little problematic. Obviously, it's worth far, far more than $65 a person, but it may not make too much sense to get into a vicious bidding war as it's unlikely to increase the rate of production and the surpluses would just be going into the hands of Parmacorps.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#47

Post by IgorPartola » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:57 AM UTC

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

The number I have seen quotes form Dr Fauci is 70-85%. However I have seen no studies so far that show that either of the vaccines used in the US slow down the spread of COVID, just that they prevent severe cases. Also neither has been tested in children under 16 which is obviously a large population.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#48

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 3:58 AM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #28

I'm interested in how vaccinating a small number of people can make a big impact on the effects of the pandemic. The risk of death and severity rapidly increases with age. We also have a good idea of the kinds of preexisting conditions put you most at risk. We have already been targeting health care professionals (increases health care capacity) and people over 65 (the majority of the at-risk population). If we are a…

We know of a half dozen human coronaviruses that stay in circulation rather than burning themselves out, so there’s reason to worry this one wouldn’t either. The exact question is probably academic, because it won’t be politically feasible to maintain social distancing when severe cases are down 100x, but we’ll definitely want to keep vaccinating.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#49

Post by xiphias2 » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:00 AM UTC

jariel wrote: post #46

Here is a interactive chart showing various nations [1] Israel will be #1 by far. They have apparently paid $65/dose or something like that, far ahead of what others have paid, moreover, the dealing looks a little problematic. Obviously, it's worth far, far more than $65 a person, but it may not make too much sense to get into a vicious bidding war as it's unlikely to increase the rate of production and the surpluses…

Why not? Bidding should be time based to provide better incentives for the companies to spend money on factories.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#50

Post by IgorPartola » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 4:00 AM UTC

Does anyone know where I can find how many doses have been distributed to each state and how many are stockpiled federally or by the manufacturers? That’s the info I really can’t seem to find and it would be really interesting to see. Also would love to see production numbers day by day if possible. The simplistic estimates I keep seeing on places like CNN basically just take the current daily vaccination rate and use that as the rate for future projections which is obviously incorrect as production and distribution is ramping up.

This site is nice, but also it only shows the percentage of people who got a single dose, which is basically meaningless. We really should stop counting a dose as one vial and stop counting how many people got just one dose.