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Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

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Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#51

Post by excerionsforte »

chaostheory wrote: post #7

Under XJ, China is declining. One of the big reasons for China's meteoric rise was that stupid laws weren't being enforced properly or at all, and free speech was on the rise which in turn led to more creativity and economic freedom. Under that old reality, I was worried that China would inevitably surpass the West, but Zhou Enlai & Deng Xiaoping's golden egg laying goose is dead now in exchange for more centralized…

I'll humor and agree with this take given it can take greater than 7 years for macro effects to occur stemming from policies and choices that countries make.

Example is the former One Child policy which took a long time for the effects to be seen. Another example is that pumping money into the economy doesn't have immediate effects.

India had its own policies (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-30040790) that would take decades for effects to be seen.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#52

Post by perardi »

bigpumpkin wrote: post #46
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

1.China has 4 times the population of America, and 1/6 the per capita output. Take your pick on what you think the long term per capita output ratio will be and you'll easily reach a conclusion on the relative size of the two economies. 2. The US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances. However, managing the divergent interests of the members in the alliances won't be easy. 3. China does not have eno…

The US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances.

I really hate to bring up the T factor…but I think this is more in doubt than it used to be, given the current administration.

Taiwan will be the key trigger for a possible war.

I cannot imagine the horror that would ensue if China tried to assert power over Taiwan. Just the potential of losing TSMC alone…

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#53

Post by jl6 »

Simulacra wrote: post #10

I would like to see some analysis of what a nuclearized Japan, or Australia, would do. China has emerged as the single greatest threat to democracy, human rights, prosperity, and peace around the world. They can only do this because a foreign investment. If companies like Apple etc. did not make their products in China, Then perhaps I could see a future of China rising peacefully. Otherwise they are a grave in mortal…

Democracy and human rights - sure.

Prosperity and peace? I think China actually has a good track record there. Actions you might perceive as un-peaceful (building islands, modernizing military) could also be interpreted as defensive.

The world could achieve great peace and prosperity under a “Pax Sinica”, at the cost of individual liberty. That IMHO is the bigger threat: that authoritarianism will sneak in under the cover of prosperity - a Faustian bargain that too many will be willing to accept.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#54

Post by roenxi »

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

> So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy?

Well, who can comment on the World's #1 (India, after all, is a country). But exactly what mistakes will China have to make not to be bigger than the US (if they aren't already)?

They have 4 times as many people and all the indications are that they are making bigger real investments in infrastructure and industrial capacity than the US. I would wish for some of the pro-growth policies from China to come to the Western powers.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#55

Post by oefrha »

lobotryas wrote: post #27
rapsey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

Even more precisely the vast majority of Chinese people are unified. They are patriots who think China is the best country ever and all the rest are just jealous of their success. Downvote me if you want, but that’s certainly the look that CCP is happy to push. Comparatively the People of the West are divided. Not just the US but also Europe. They are divided not just by politics, but also by their world view, and fe…

> Even more precisely the vast majority of Chinese people are unified. They are patriots who think China is the best country ever and all the rest are just jealous of their success.

That’s out group homogeneity (or maybe just propaganda-driven thinking — Western media certainly portrays China that way) and not even remotely true to anyone who can read the Chinese language to some extent. Go to allegedly tightly controlled Weibo and check out comments under most sociopolitical news — I mean actual news, not “happy 71st birthday PRC” kind of stuff, and witness the shouting match between different groups, with an astonishing amount of “unpatriotic” opinions everywhere (astonishing if you think the Chinese should have one voice, that is). There are also a substantial group of people who quite literally worship developed countries — ironically more prevalent among people who have never set foot outside the country, I’d say — and will quickly label any domestic problem as uniquely Chinese, even when they’re not. There’s even a Chinese saying about this, “the moon is rounder in foreign lands” (everything is better in foreign countries). Even different group of patriots can be seen warring against each other sometimes over political issues.

People on the opposite side of the world aren’t nearly as different once you get to know them.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#56

Post by sudosysgen »

scarmig wrote: post #19
Simulacra wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if foreign companies keep investing. If there is another Wuhan virus, then as possible the world may step back tremendously from China

China is looking to move away from export focused growth and has been developing a rich domestic market. More broadly, the world has been stepping back a bit from China anyway, because its labor costs have risen significantly compared to other potential manufacturing centers.

In truth, the Chinese share of manufacturing has recently surged.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#57

Post by yongjik »

rapsey wrote: post #4
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

I think it's the other way: the strength of the West is that it's largely leaderless, and its "regional" leaders regularly gets switched out, so even a bad leader cannot leave much long-lasting harm.

China is at the mercy of bad decisions made by its single unopposed leader - in a quest to command fear, it's needlessly antagonizing pretty much all its neighbors, which seems to me like a result of flawed leadership.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#58

Post by whimsicalism »

bboygravity wrote: post #48
whimsicalism wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Aren't the root issues as simple as that? Not at all. The '"nice" thing about a totalitarian king/emperor/dictator is that improvements in prosperity come quickly' has historically almost never been the case. It is actually quite anomalous for a non-democracy to see these sorts of quality of life improvements. > easy example: Mao Mao is not such an easy example, given that there is a continuity of government from M…

> Just look at the number in China in absolute poverty over the last 100 years. Honestly, your comment seems remarkably ill-reformed. Last 100 years? I was thinking more towards the last 2500 years or so of Chinese and Western history. Will edit my previous comment to clarify. > It is actually quite anomalous for a non-democracy to see these sorts of quality of life improvements. Could you give some counter examples…

> Could you give some counter examples to these non-democracies

Given that outside of Greece, the Roman republic, Italian city-states, and a few other exceptions - every single one of thousands of regimes was non-democratic for thousands of years, it seems like those are anomalous and your comment is shot through with historical survivorship bias.

> Could you give some counter examples to these non-democracies that went from 0 to very powerful

I'm also just pretty unconvinced by these examples. I would have agreed if you had said, dictatorships tend to be much more militarily aggressive and expansionary, but I disagree that that results in quality of life improvement.

I don't think any of those examples lifted anywhere close to the same proportion of their population out of poverty. China lifted 880 million out of poverty.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#59

Post by crazybones »

lobotryas wrote: post #27
rapsey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

Even more precisely the vast majority of Chinese people are unified. They are patriots who think China is the best country ever and all the rest are just jealous of their success. Downvote me if you want, but that’s certainly the look that CCP is happy to push. Comparatively the People of the West are divided. Not just the US but also Europe. They are divided not just by politics, but also by their world view, and fe…

Emm. As a Chinese, I disagree. Most Chinese don't think China is the best country. Just look at how many people wants to migrate to other countries. It does seem like Western media is trying to depict Chinese as patriots though.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#60

Post by throw51319 »

puranjay wrote: post #6
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

It has been nearly impossible to find objective analysis of China. Most sources are either soft propaganda or irrational jingoism. What are some good sources for a rational discussion about China's growing dominance?

Seriously. There are so many right wing that think they are a paper tiger, and there's so many left CCP apologists that cloud the discussion in their own way.

The West needs a completely unbiased body to release a report to the world about where stuff stands. Nobody wants a conflict. We realize our systems are like two huge tectonic plates about to grind against each other... but let's fix it

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