US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M

Post by [deleted] » Sun, May 03, 2020, 11:18 PM UTC

_bxg1 wrote: post #14

xkapastel wrote: post #3

> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population. This could happen at any time due to a solar flare. The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "norm…

That 90% number seems really hard to believe. Additionally, from the referenced article: > There is no published model disclosing how these numbers were arrived at, nor are we able to validate a primary source for this claim. Testimony given by the Chairman of the Congressional EMP Commission, while expressing similar concerns, gave no estimate of the deaths that would accrue from a prolonged nationwide grid collapse…

Post by FlyMoreRockets » Sun, May 03, 2020, 11:19 PM UTC

williamdclt wrote: post #35

ars wrote: post #19

I wonder how many other rare disasters there are that cost only 300M to prepare for. If it's just a couple, then sure, fund this one. But if there are thousand of possible rare disasters - how can you possibly fund them all?

If there's 3.3 thousand similar disasters, it would cost ~1 trillion to prepare. How much did covid-19 cost?

Post by mrslave » Sun, May 03, 2020, 11:23 PM UTC

pilsetnieks wrote: post #36

realtalk_sp wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly it might cost Berkshire even less to just reinsure against the risk.

I'm suddenly tempted to write a not-quite-serious novel about a time period up to and including a post-apocalyptic dystopia that occurred simply because almost all emergency measures in the world were replaced by insurance policies. In the end people subsist on irradiated rats and mutant vegetables but they're doing great because each of them are owed millions of pounds by Lloyd's of London which may or may not exist…

Post by roywiggins » Sun, May 03, 2020, 11:27 PM UTC

beambot wrote: post #37

wcoenen wrote: post #7

> I’d like to ask you guys whether we are prepared for other black swans. Let’s start with a collapse of the electrical system due to solar flares or electromagnetic pulse attacks. A Black Swan is a "high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare event that is beyond the realm of normal expectations". But we know that the Carrington Event happened in 1859, and that it's only a matter of time before a big solar flare will af…

Events like the Carrington & Covid seem to fit: high profile, hard to predict and rare. IMO, both qualify as Black swan. At some point, you have to pick a threshold on the probabilities involved... These events are likely independent & identically distributed (i.e. hard to predict for any year), and I'd call sub-1% annual chance pretty rare. But I'm receptive to a different threshold... But you can't just say "Black…

Post by thebean11 » Sun, May 03, 2020, 11:37 PM UTC

beambot wrote: post #37

wcoenen wrote: post #7

> I’d like to ask you guys whether we are prepared for other black swans. Let’s start with a collapse of the electrical system due to solar flares or electromagnetic pulse attacks. A Black Swan is a "high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare event that is beyond the realm of normal expectations". But we know that the Carrington Event happened in 1859, and that it's only a matter of time before a big solar flare will af…

Events like the Carrington & Covid seem to fit: high profile, hard to predict and rare. IMO, both qualify as Black swan. At some point, you have to pick a threshold on the probabilities involved... These events are likely independent & identically distributed (i.e. hard to predict for any year), and I'd call sub-1% annual chance pretty rare. But I'm receptive to a different threshold... But you can't just say "Black…