US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
themoneyillusion.com
US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
1–10 of 267 posts
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#2While I don't disagree that transformers... let alone key transformer.. are critical. By disabling 9 transformers you cannot take down “THE GRID”. You could certainly cause havoc and perhaps take down sections of a grid, perhaps a large one such as new york city. But these would be localized. While ensuring that critical components are local and available is important much of this is being done in the energy sector. It’s not to say there simply are no replacements. However, the energy sector, including transmission, is made up of over 6000 separate organizations. Most of which are not federally controlled or controlled by the local government. Put simply they are for-profit companies. They are critical infrastructure and regulated by the gov, but not a part of.
Put short, this is a serious matter, but not in the way it is presented here. It would be a herculean effort to take out 1 let alone the suggested 9. Especially in a coordinated fashion. EVEN IF it was achieved.. This would only cause localized issues. Not takedown. “THE GRID”
This is a much larger discussion but a few things to consider:
1. There is no singular "grid". It just does not work that way. There are thousands of generation and transmission companies throughout the US. They all maintain there own “grids”. There is connectivity to provide ways to connect grids to sell/buy/shed power. But these connections are controlled and can be simply… disconnected. 2. Without going on a major diatribe on the many different attack vectors and inherent vulnerabilities in the energy sector…. Suffice to say.. The easiest and most sure way to take out a transformer is physical. They would need to be destroyed or disabled. Digital/remote interference would require an immense effort and campaign… we are not talking breaching the 9 locations… we’re talking hacking millions upon millions of connected devices and coordinating load to take out a transformer or the grid as whole…. The coordination and effort necessary for either are staggering. 3. There are in fact spares and inventory… just not in the hands of the feds.
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#3> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population.
This could happen at any time due to a solar flare. The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "normal".
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#4While I don't disagree that transformers... let alone key transformer.. are critical. By disabling 9 transformers you cannot take down “THE GRID”. You could certainly cause havoc and perhaps take down sections of a grid, perhaps a large one such as new york city. But these would be localized. While ensuring that critical components are local and available is important much of this is being done in the energy sector.…
You seem to be assuming some sort of terrorist event. I would have thought the most likely reason for the whole grid to go down is another Carrington event.
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#5While I don't disagree that transformers... let alone key transformer.. are critical. By disabling 9 transformers you cannot take down “THE GRID”. You could certainly cause havoc and perhaps take down sections of a grid, perhaps a large one such as new york city. But these would be localized. While ensuring that critical components are local and available is important much of this is being done in the energy sector.…
You seem to be assuming some sort of terrorist event. I would have thought the most likely reason for the whole grid to go down is another Carrington event.
I'm not assuming anything/anyone specifically but lean towards nation-state, anarchist, terror, etc.
A natural disaster such as a flare, earthquake, fire, etc. are a different story.
The radiation and electrical magnetic pulse from a solar flare could hamper equipment. However recent studies in the last few years by EPRI, INL, and ORNL actually show that much equipment would survive and equipment that did not would be localized.
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#6The book “One Second After” deals with an EMP attack on the US. I don’t understand why we are not better prepared.
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#7> I’d like to ask you guys whether we are prepared for other black swans. Let’s start with a collapse of the electrical system due to solar flares or electromagnetic pulse attacks.
A Black Swan is a "high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare event that is beyond the realm of normal expectations". But we know that the Carrington Event happened in 1859, and that it's only a matter of time before a big solar flare will affect Earth in the same way. So this is not a Black Swan.
But yes, we should prepare for foreseeable rare events.
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#8> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population. This could happen at any time due to a solar flare. The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "norm…
[deleted]
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#9> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population. This could happen at any time due to a solar flare. The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "norm…
> The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "normal".
This is the nature of the US system of competitive federalism. States only coordinate with the federal government when either (a) it's politically expedient, because the ruling party in the same for both at that time, or (b) the federal government forces this issue, at which time lawsuits ensue.
It's helpful to think of the US as more a series of regions that sometimes fall under a shifting umbrella government than an actual, single entity.
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#10Maybe someone who knows a bunch about this stuff can enlighten me. I was kind of under the impression that a large solar flare would damage _all sorts_ of electronic equipment, by inducing currents wires all over the place.
- If we had extra transformers on hand, how would you protect them from also being damaged?
- If a solar flare is powerful enough to damage these transformers, would it also have damaged a large proportion of devices that use power? I.e. even if you could get the electric grid working, would there be working systems of any complexity to use the power?