Solar storm of 1859
US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
11–20 of 267 posts
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#12> I’d like to ask you guys whether we are prepared for other black swans. Let’s start with a collapse of the electrical system due to solar flares or electromagnetic pulse attacks. A Black Swan is a "high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare event that is beyond the realm of normal expectations". But we know that the Carrington Event happened in 1859, and that it's only a matter of time before a big solar flare will af…
A Black Swan is probably more about the POV of an actor as opposed to somebody who knows this, then it's not a black swan.
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#13Maybe someone who knows a bunch about this stuff can enlighten me. I was kind of under the impression that a large solar flare would damage _all sorts_ of electronic equipment, by inducing currents wires all over the place. - If we had extra transformers on hand, how would you protect them from also being damaged? - If a solar flare is powerful enough to damage these transformers, would it also have damaged a large p…
I'm also not super knowledgeable in this area but let me have a shot:
* The transformers could be stored in a manner designed to keep them from being damaged by this event (off? physically disconnected? In large pieces?)
* I think things are surge protected at local levels so appliances would be fine.
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#14> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population. This could happen at any time due to a solar flare. The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "norm…
That 90% number seems really hard to believe. Additionally, from the referenced article:
> There is no published model disclosing how these numbers were arrived at, nor are we able to validate a primary source for this claim. Testimony given by the Chairman of the Congressional EMP Commission, while expressing similar concerns, gave no estimate of the deaths that would accrue from a prolonged nationwide grid collapse.
I'm highly suspicious that that number is exaggerated in order to inspire action on what still seems like a worthwhile issue.
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#15> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population. This could happen at any time due to a solar flare. The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "norm…
> The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "normal". This is the nature of the US system of competitive federalism. States only coordinate with the federal government when either (a) it's politically expedient, because the ruling party in the same for both at that time, or (b) the federal government forces this issue, at which time lawsuits en…
It's pretty interesting that most countries in Europe are unitary states while most countries in the Americas are federal states. Maybe due to the centuries of warfare in Europe the states that survived were unitary states that could better handle external threats. Or maybe it's a holdover from a tradition of monarchy that the Americas never had.
Interestingly, Germany is also a federal state. Yet we never seem to hear about federal regions of Germany disagreeing with each other and fighting with the Federal government like we hear about the US. Any Germans want to spill the tea on German inter-regional political drama?
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#16Maybe someone who knows a bunch about this stuff can enlighten me. I was kind of under the impression that a large solar flare would damage _all sorts_ of electronic equipment, by inducing currents wires all over the place. - If we had extra transformers on hand, how would you protect them from also being damaged? - If a solar flare is powerful enough to damage these transformers, would it also have damaged a large p…
It is true that the solar flare will induce current in any exposed wire. However the following factors increase the current. The length of the wire, the thicker the wire, how poorly insulated it is, and the stronger the magnetic surges caused by the flare.
Long distance transmission lines are very long, fairly thick, and very exposed. The result is that the surges that they experience are several orders of magnitude stronger than, say, inside of your washing machine or a transformer unconnected to the wire. That surge doesn't hurt the wire, but it can blow the transformer when it hits it.
And hence the problem is mostly in blown transformers. If you have other transformers on hand, you swap them in and most of the system should be up.
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#17curious as to how a post like this gets allowed. this is quite obviously click-bait, a personal blog post that is pretty dramatically un-informed. is HN going the route of Fox/CNN/DailyMail???
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#18> In testimony before a Congressional Committee, it has been asserted that a prolonged collapse of this nation’s electrical grid—through starvation, disease, and societal collapse—could result in the death of up to 90% of the American population. This could happen at any time due to a solar flare. The coronavirus has made it pretty clear that America is completely unprepared for any sort of major deviation from "norm…
That 90% number seems really hard to believe. Additionally, from the referenced article: > There is no published model disclosing how these numbers were arrived at, nor are we able to validate a primary source for this claim. Testimony given by the Chairman of the Congressional EMP Commission, while expressing similar concerns, gave no estimate of the deaths that would accrue from a prolonged nationwide grid collapse…
That quote seems to come from the testimony of R. James Woolsley [1], who was referencing this commission report from 2008: http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.p... [pdf]
Unfortunately discussion in this thread will be dead before anybody will finish comprehensively reading that report.
With the recent failure of the federal government during what should be a significantly easier to manage emergency, I find the 90% to be more believable than I would have just a year ago.
[1]: https://www.powermag.com/expect-death-if-pulse-event-hits-po...
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#19I wonder how many other rare disasters there are that cost only 300M to prepare for.
If it's just a couple, then sure, fund this one.
But if there are thousand of possible rare disasters - how can you possibly fund them all?
Re: US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
#20Maybe someone who knows a bunch about this stuff can enlighten me. I was kind of under the impression that a large solar flare would damage _all sorts_ of electronic equipment, by inducing currents wires all over the place. - If we had extra transformers on hand, how would you protect them from also being damaged? - If a solar flare is powerful enough to damage these transformers, would it also have damaged a large p…
It is true that the solar flare will induce current in any exposed wire. However the following factors increase the current. The length of the wire, the thicker the wire, how poorly insulated it is, and the stronger the magnetic surges caused by the flare. Long distance transmission lines are very long, fairly thick, and very exposed. The result is that the surges that they experience are several orders of magnitude…
I can see a couple of rather obvious problem with this. The electrical grid is, well, connected - the long, high-voltage sections are connected to the lower voltage sections which are connected to the even lower voltage sections. Those connections are through transformers, but if the surge is big enough to destroy even the largest transformers what's to stop it from blowing through all of the transformers and frying the delicate low-voltage control electronics of every grid connected device, including ones critical to operating the grid and power plants? Also, smaller devices are naturally going to be a lot more sensitive than huge transformers, so even if they don't experience the same level of voltage and current this could still be enough to destroy them.