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Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

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Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#51

Post by verttii »

barry-cotter wrote: post #35
rider5 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn’t guerilla warfare in the alleys and tight buildings be an absolute nightmare

Guerrilla warfare relies on willingness to abide by the laws of armed conflict for its effectiveness. If you’re willing to kill everyone and the rebellious population realises it you win. See Chechnya. Also, Hong Kong is a city. In cities guerrilla warfare just plain doesn’t work. If it did the Israelis would not have been able to occupy the Gaza Strip and West Bank for decades. This without the willingness to disreg…

When pondering guerilla resistance it should be noted that Hong Kong is not Singapore - they have no army or any military trained population. There's just angry civilians.

There won't be any guerilla resistance in Hong Kong in the case of an armed intervention.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#52

Post by verttii »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #15
tenpies wrote: post #13

To be honest, the real protests should begin as key organizers magically "disappear" over the next few months. I can only imagine the amount of intelligence Beijing has collected over these last few days and what sort of operations they have in mind. The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand.

> The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak) authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But that option went o…

It's highly unlikely that any country would impose sanctions on China for such measures. Hell, we don't even have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan anywhere because everyone fears losing the chance to do business with China.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#53

Post by lacker »

627467 wrote: post #42

I sense a lot of exaggeration in hn regarding the likelihood of armed intervention in the relationship between hk mainland. China has nothing to gain from overt belligerence with its own special region which is clearly regulated by legal framework (unlike Taiwan). I support the cause of Hong Kongers, the general the idea of maintaining both their political and social difference within greater China. I even accept tha…

It sounds like you’re saying the Chinese government won’t intervene because the status quo is acceptable. But the Chinese government might not be the side to escalate. There’s a lot of protesters now and a lot of subfactions of the protesters. If this keeps up, the protesters might get organized enough for some faction to decide the right move is an escalation to violence.

IMO these situations are fundamentally unpredictable, and a violent outcome is quite possible.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#54

Post by baybal2 »

bpye wrote: post #14
baybal2 wrote: post #6

I continue seeing military hardware being moved all around Dongguan https://imgur.com/a/qrsJ9af I saw a whole lot of bridge layers with troops yesterday, now that. Occasional troop movements can't be said to be unusual around here (74th army has bases all across the plain in between Huizhou and Guangzhou.) I used to see the almost every day, but never before saw them on the move whole day long.

Has this been covered in any articles? I can't say I've seen it.

I don't think so, but local chat groups were all abuzz about that for weeks

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#55

Post by wbl »

verttii wrote: post #52
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak) authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But that option went o…

It's highly unlikely that any country would impose sanctions on China for such measures. Hell, we don't even have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan anywhere because everyone fears losing the chance to do business with China.

We still sanction China for Tianmen square.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#56

Post by twblalock »

627467 wrote: post #42

I sense a lot of exaggeration in hn regarding the likelihood of armed intervention in the relationship between hk mainland. China has nothing to gain from overt belligerence with its own special region which is clearly regulated by legal framework (unlike Taiwan). I support the cause of Hong Kongers, the general the idea of maintaining both their political and social difference within greater China. I even accept tha…

If the protesters do not give the mainland government a way to back down without saving face, then the mainland government simply cannot back down -- especially not during a trade war that is already hurting the government's image.

I suspect the most likely outcome, if the protests continue, will be the resignation of Carrie Lam followed by statements from Beijing about how she screwed up. They will want to pin the blame on her. If the protesters don't go home after that, the possibility of armed intervention will not seem so remote.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#57

Post by seanmcdirmid »

csomar wrote: post #36
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. Huh? No, it doesn't. It has military bases in nearby Okinawa, however. I'm sure the USA setting up a military base in Taiwan would really piss China off, and it would also be not very useful since the Ryukyu Islands are right next door anyways. The USA simply provides Taiwan with weapons, and occasionally meanders an aircraft carrier around (or used t…

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_C... Taiwan existed because of the US. Basically, the other side of the civil war got defeated and come hiding in Taiwan behind US military. Otherwise, it'd have been invaded by China since. It seems currently that there is no official military presence. However, there is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances I think it's enough to deter China…

Taiwan exists because Mao decided to spend all his international capital on a Korean invasion rather than a Taiwan one, making the USA care about Taiwan again.

In an alternate dimension where Mao held back, we would have had a unified Korea and China, strange.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#59

Post by JumpCrisscross »

twblalock wrote: post #56
627467 wrote: post #42

I sense a lot of exaggeration in hn regarding the likelihood of armed intervention in the relationship between hk mainland. China has nothing to gain from overt belligerence with its own special region which is clearly regulated by legal framework (unlike Taiwan). I support the cause of Hong Kongers, the general the idea of maintaining both their political and social difference within greater China. I even accept tha…

If the protesters do not give the mainland government a way to back down without saving face, then the mainland government simply cannot back down -- especially not during a trade war that is already hurting the government's image. I suspect the most likely outcome, if the protests continue, will be the resignation of Carrie Lam followed by statements from Beijing about how she screwed up. They will want to pin the b…

> the mainland government simply cannot back down

This is false. Beijing has many other options.

Xi's ineptitude and status as a lifetime leader does entrench China more than it should be. But there are many options between total escalation and total retreat.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#60

Post by OrgNet »

wbl wrote: post #55
verttii wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's highly unlikely that any country would impose sanctions on China for such measures. Hell, we don't even have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan anywhere because everyone fears losing the chance to do business with China.

We still sanction China for Tianmen square.

> But, unfortunately, the sanctions have rarely been enforced and U.S. companies skirt the sanctions with impunity. In 2011, Cisco sold over 500,000 cameras to the city of Chongqing specifically to watch its citizens.
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