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Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

nytimes.com

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Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#51

Post by bb2018 »

gammateam wrote: post #41
bduerst wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Liability, mostly. It's hard for the board to sue a machine or for officials to send a machine to prison. Also ML/AI isn't even near strong enough to make the varied decisions necessary to run a publicly-traded company, but it could augment decision makers with recommendations.

I think the public facing role and risk is adequately compensated. CEO's start the company and suffer share dilution. They did their job if the shares are valuable. Future CEOs don't get the same incentive package, and need something somewhat comparable.

Even CEOs who don't start the business and are paid more money that seems necessary are probably worth it. Lloyd Blankfein gets 50M+ at Goldman Sachs but with profits of 10B its hard to argue hiring the best possible CEO won't help improve profits by a tiny percentage.

Is it fair that society lets someone keep so much money? Maybe not. But if you are an owner (directly or through stock) or even an employee who de facto wants the company to succeed, it is mutually beneficial to have such highly compensated executives.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#52

Post by deevolution »

gotocake wrote: post #23
fvdessen wrote: post #15

Isn't replacing people with machines what we've been doing uninterrupted since the beginning of the industrial revolution ? In what sense is replacing a translator with DeepL different from replacing a farmer with a tractor ? We've gone from more than two third of the population working on the fields to less than 5% and people still have jobs. What has changed that makes us think that this time it will be different ?

Replacing people with machines isn’t, and has never been the problem. Telling generations of people who depend on the jobs they have to suck it up and move out of the way of progress without good recourse is. Shrugging and telling people to make do with two or three “gig” jobs is a bullshit answer to their concerns, as are empty suggestions to retrain or find a new job. People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun,…

Progress has always come with some consequences, unfortunately. I'm not saying that we can't do better, but we're only human afterall.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#53

Post by [deleted] »

fvdessen wrote: post #15

Isn't replacing people with machines what we've been doing uninterrupted since the beginning of the industrial revolution ? In what sense is replacing a translator with DeepL different from replacing a farmer with a tractor ? We've gone from more than two third of the population working on the fields to less than 5% and people still have jobs. What has changed that makes us think that this time it will be different ?

[deleted]

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#54

Post by AmericanChopper »

pseudolus wrote: post #50
AmericanChopper wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There are many periods in human history where things have significantly worsened Sure, which is why I said over time. If you look at any isolated period you’re not going to see any trends that take place over longer periods of time. The standard of living world wide goes up over time, and has done so at a very accelerated rate since the industrial revolution. The world is generally becoming a better place, it’s much…

Over the long term it's entirely possible that the current historically anomalous growth rate might be maintained but it's of little comfort to me and, say my children and grandchildren, that my great grandchildren will be living in the land of milk and honey if immediate generations are consigned to some kind of economic purgatory. The negative slopes and valleys that appear, but don't necessarily dominate economic…

Even over the past ten years things have been improving. Even if you ignore the developing economies (where things get better faster) and the rest of the world, the US is still improving. Poverty in the US for example has been trending downwards for decades, including over the last 10 years. I can see how attached you are to this “everything is bad” narrative, but it’s not reflected in reality.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#55

Post by deevolution »

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #49
bksenior wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh. This seems fluffy. This seems more like the Industrial Revolution + Twitter. Just like all the studies that the world is technically better off in every modern metric of improvement (poverty, starvation, mobility..etc, but things feel shitty because you are forced to read about the one dude kidnapping and eating children one state over, I think it's probably just amplified fears (and ultimately seperation of team…

There was far more to it than that. Whole communities arose around the pit, steel works or ship yard. Hundreds or thousands of local families depended on it. Family, friends and everyone in the street was a part of it. When it goes a few shop or driving jobs may be possible but leaves the majority up shit creek with no paddle. > Sure it can crush a generation (see the american midwest from 1960-2020), but most people…

I think this is exactly where VR will help people enormously. The game industry is already outpacing the sports industry in revenue - and in reach. Games provide people with agency, accomplishment, and a community that some people cannot get anywhere else - perhaps the very people you are describing. Its inevitable that people will be replaced by technology - no amount of government regulation is going to slow the massive tides of progress. VR is going to be a very, very important coping mechanism during this period of disruption.

edit: some words

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#56

Post by postingtoofast »

bksenior wrote: post #35
overtone wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun, but because it’s what they know how to do, and it brings home the bacon. Far more than that, coal workers take pride in their work, it's part of their identity and it commands a certain degree of respect as being "hard labor". If it was just about "bringing home the bacon" they might as well take any other job. This is in contrast to working for Wal-Mart or McDonalds,…

Eh. This seems fluffy. This seems more like the Industrial Revolution + Twitter. Just like all the studies that the world is technically better off in every modern metric of improvement (poverty, starvation, mobility..etc, but things feel shitty because you are forced to read about the one dude kidnapping and eating children one state over, I think it's probably just amplified fears (and ultimately seperation of team…

> It's also worth noting that people dont die, jobs just shift unexpectedly. Sure it can crush a generation (see the american midwest from 1960-2020), but most people move to where the work is geographically and intellectually or just die out.

I love that you're so honest. Well, let me tell you something. AI is improving faster than the manufacture of dexterous robotics, of the sort that could, say, create an automated police force. So if things continue to get worse for enough people, I imagine that elitists like you will eventually find your backs up against a wall.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#57

Post by postingtoofast »

AmericanChopper wrote: post #54
pseudolus wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the long term it's entirely possible that the current historically anomalous growth rate might be maintained but it's of little comfort to me and, say my children and grandchildren, that my great grandchildren will be living in the land of milk and honey if immediate generations are consigned to some kind of economic purgatory. The negative slopes and valleys that appear, but don't necessarily dominate economic…

Even over the past ten years things have been improving. Even if you ignore the developing economies (where things get better faster) and the rest of the world, the US is still improving. Poverty in the US for example has been trending downwards for decades, including over the last 10 years. I can see how attached you are to this “everything is bad” narrative, but it’s not reflected in reality.

Life spans in the US have been falling during the past decade. That's a very bad indicator. Do you really have your head this deep in the sand?

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#58

Post by git_rancher »

pacala wrote: post #42
throwaway8879 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly do you mean? Answers like these are too chronocentric. This automation will be no different than the early proto-hominid hunter put out of his job because someone made a spear. Or the scribes that died out because of the printing press. Everything that can be automated will eventually be automated.

Everything can be automated.

Everything is already automated if you consider the universe’s noise to be an organizing force.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#59

Post by threatofrain »

brobdingnagians wrote: post #46

>“The choice isn’t between automation and non-automation,” said Erik Brynjolfsson, the director of M.I.T.’s Initiative on the Digital Economy. “It’s between whether you use the technology in a way that creates shared prosperity, or more concentration of wealth.” This could lead to a scenario with what happened when there was aristocracy. Land was a major necessary means of production and was overwhelmingly owned by t…

But the things they own service the needs of the many; when the many become poor, why do you need to own a factory which produces a phone at scale when there aren't enough people to buy it?

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#60

Post by nopinsight »

overtone wrote: post #31
gotocake wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing people with machines isn’t, and has never been the problem. Telling generations of people who depend on the jobs they have to suck it up and move out of the way of progress without good recourse is. Shrugging and telling people to make do with two or three “gig” jobs is a bullshit answer to their concerns, as are empty suggestions to retrain or find a new job. People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun,…

> People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun, but because it’s what they know how to do, and it brings home the bacon. Far more than that, coal workers take pride in their work, it's part of their identity and it commands a certain degree of respect as being "hard labor". If it was just about "bringing home the bacon" they might as well take any other job. This is in contrast to working for Wal-Mart or McDonalds,…

I agree that pride and identity are important to people’s well being. What are some suggestions to help people gain those back, perhaps in a still viable industry? Until AGI is invented, there will always be jobs available [1] but some jobs are unnecessarily looked down upon despite being important to society and safer than mining.

Since pride in one’s work tends to tie with the value that broader communities put on the work, would a broad-based ongoing PR campaign by well-resourced organizations (incl. local and federal governments) help with that? Perhaps we can put the DeBeers experience with creating a shared cross-generation myth of diamonds representing true love to good use.

Elderly care, for example, would be hard to automate cost effectively over the next couple of decades and possibly longer. If society puts more value and gives more prestige to the job, more people would be willing to train to do it.

(Obviously, the society should help people transition to their new roles as well for example by covering the costs of living and training for a substantial period.)

[1] Lump of labor fallacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy

As concrete examples:

- Has every piece of potentially useful land well-developed as a magnificent public or private space?

- Has all public infrastructure needed been built and well-maintained to the best quality possible?

- Does every person, adult and child, have access to world-class education/training they want or need, including private tutoring if they wish?

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