Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite • Hacker News Board

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#31

Post by overtone » Sat, Jan 26, 2019, 2:03 AM UTC

gotocake wrote: post #23

fvdessen wrote: post #15

Isn't replacing people with machines what we've been doing uninterrupted since the beginning of the industrial revolution ? In what sense is replacing a translator with DeepL different from replacing a farmer with a tractor ? We've gone from more than two third of the population working on the fields to less than 5% and people still have jobs. What has changed that makes us think that this time it will be different ?

Replacing people with machines isn’t, and has never been the problem. Telling generations of people who depend on the jobs they have to suck it up and move out of the way of progress without good recourse is. Shrugging and telling people to make do with two or three “gig” jobs is a bullshit answer to their concerns, as are empty suggestions to retrain or find a new job. People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun,…

> People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun, but because it’s what they know how to do, and it brings home the bacon.

Far more than that, coal workers take pride in their work, it's part of their identity and it commands a certain degree of respect as being "hard labor". If it was just about "bringing home the bacon" they might as well take any other job.

This is in contrast to working for Wal-Mart or McDonalds, there's no pride in it, it's not part of people's identity. People want to move on from these jobs, but there are less and less opportunities to move on to.

> So if you want people to do more than spit on us as we pass, we should put effort into ensuring a safety net for them when the work we domtskes their livliehood away.

A safety net is well and good, but if people lose their jobs and get stuck in the net, it destroys them. Again, it's about pride and identity.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#32

Post by asynchrony » Sat, Jan 26, 2019, 2:03 AM UTC

Can we all get smarter? Children easily become experts at any modern device. If we automate everything and pour resources into cheap and scalable education could we make the majority of the population into information workers? Just a thought.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#33

Post by bduerst » Sat, Jan 26, 2019, 2:05 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #16

We need to make progress on automating the job of the CEO. The CEO is just an intermediary between investors and profitable activity. Why should they be so expensive? ROI would improve if CEO costs could be cut, especially for underperforminmg CEOs. There's already a hedge fund where an AI has a board vote on acquisitions. This isn't that far out of reach.

Liability, mostly. It's hard for the board to sue a machine or for officials to send a machine to prison.

Also ML/AI isn't even near strong enough to make the varied decisions necessary to run a publicly-traded company, but it could augment decision makers with recommendations.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#34

Post by bduerst » Sat, Jan 26, 2019, 2:08 AM UTC

gotocake wrote: post #23

fvdessen wrote: post #15

Isn't replacing people with machines what we've been doing uninterrupted since the beginning of the industrial revolution ? In what sense is replacing a translator with DeepL different from replacing a farmer with a tractor ? We've gone from more than two third of the population working on the fields to less than 5% and people still have jobs. What has changed that makes us think that this time it will be different ?

Replacing people with machines isn’t, and has never been the problem. Telling generations of people who depend on the jobs they have to suck it up and move out of the way of progress without good recourse is. Shrugging and telling people to make do with two or three “gig” jobs is a bullshit answer to their concerns, as are empty suggestions to retrain or find a new job. People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun,…

It's been a problem since the luddites in the 19th century, and as we move further into the 21st, human adaptability is going to become a stronger selling point.

Nobody really cared as the blacksmith, farm hand, or the secretary lost jobs. Coal mining is a celebrated profession for some reason.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#35

Post by bksenior » Sat, Jan 26, 2019, 2:08 AM UTC

overtone wrote: post #31

gotocake wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing people with machines isn’t, and has never been the problem. Telling generations of people who depend on the jobs they have to suck it up and move out of the way of progress without good recourse is. Shrugging and telling people to make do with two or three “gig” jobs is a bullshit answer to their concerns, as are empty suggestions to retrain or find a new job. People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun,…

> People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun, but because it’s what they know how to do, and it brings home the bacon. Far more than that, coal workers take pride in their work, it's part of their identity and it commands a certain degree of respect as being "hard labor". If it was just about "bringing home the bacon" they might as well take any other job. This is in contrast to working for Wal-Mart or McDonalds,…

Eh. This seems fluffy.

This seems more like the Industrial Revolution + Twitter. Just like all the studies that the world is technically better off in every modern metric of improvement (poverty, starvation, mobility..etc, but things feel shitty because you are forced to read about the one dude kidnapping and eating children one state over, I think it's probably just amplified fears (and ultimately seperation of teams) than it was during other large periods of change.

It's also worth noting that people dont die, jobs just shift unexpectedly. Sure it can crush a generation (see the american midwest from 1960-2020), but most people move to where the work is geographically and intellectually or just die out.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#36

Post by AmericanChopper » Sat, Jan 26, 2019, 2:08 AM UTC

pseudolus wrote: post #29

AmericanChopper wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because “world continually gets better over time” isn’t a headline that gets clicks. But one that makes people afraid of something does. That fear is also a great way of promoting a number of different political agendas, which is why you’ll see all sorts of people stirring it up.

The "world continually gets better over time" is historically a relatively new concept. There are many periods in human history where things have significantly worsened. As they say in finance - past performance is not indicative of future results.

>There are many periods in human history where things have significantly worsened

Sure, which is why I said over time. If you look at any isolated period you’re not going to see any trends that take place over longer periods of time. The standard of living world wide goes up over time, and has done so at a very accelerated rate since the industrial revolution. The world is generally becoming a better place, it’s much better than it was 100 years ago, and still even better than it was 10 years ago. New technology, and the progress of emerging economies makes life better for the whole world. There’s plenty of people who have an interest in selling fear, especially when it comes to technology, but that deception has been around for as long as technology itself. They said all the same things about mechanization back then as they say about automation now. The sad truth is that good news is critically dangerous to too many people with agendas, that it’ll end up getting ignored or denied with ignorant passion.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#37

Post by hammock » Sat, Jan 26, 2019, 2:09 AM UTC

overtone wrote: post #31

gotocake wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing people with machines isn’t, and has never been the problem. Telling generations of people who depend on the jobs they have to suck it up and move out of the way of progress without good recourse is. Shrugging and telling people to make do with two or three “gig” jobs is a bullshit answer to their concerns, as are empty suggestions to retrain or find a new job. People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun,…

> People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun, but because it’s what they know how to do, and it brings home the bacon. Far more than that, coal workers take pride in their work, it's part of their identity and it commands a certain degree of respect as being "hard labor". If it was just about "bringing home the bacon" they might as well take any other job. This is in contrast to working for Wal-Mart or McDonalds,…

Have you ever known a McDonald's worker, or a coal worker? I have known plenty of bottom-barrel blue collar workers who do it begrudgingly and some fast food employees who take pride in their work.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#38

Post by hammock » Sat, Jan 26, 2019, 2:10 AM UTC

ianhawes wrote: post #18

fvdessen wrote: post #15

Isn't replacing people with machines what we've been doing uninterrupted since the beginning of the industrial revolution ? In what sense is replacing a translator with DeepL different from replacing a farmer with a tractor ? We've gone from more than two third of the population working on the fields to less than 5% and people still have jobs. What has changed that makes us think that this time it will be different ?

Please do not tell people about DeepL.

Why? I'm fascinated by any meaningful, superior-quality tech innovation these days that doesn't come from FAANG or a pre-existing unicorn. There don't seem to be many.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#39

Post by jackcosgrove » Sat, Jan 26, 2019, 2:11 AM UTC

overtone wrote: post #31

gotocake wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing people with machines isn’t, and has never been the problem. Telling generations of people who depend on the jobs they have to suck it up and move out of the way of progress without good recourse is. Shrugging and telling people to make do with two or three “gig” jobs is a bullshit answer to their concerns, as are empty suggestions to retrain or find a new job. People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun,…

> People don’t work a coal face because it’s fun, but because it’s what they know how to do, and it brings home the bacon. Far more than that, coal workers take pride in their work, it's part of their identity and it commands a certain degree of respect as being "hard labor". If it was just about "bringing home the bacon" they might as well take any other job. This is in contrast to working for Wal-Mart or McDonalds,…

I think this debate underestimates the psychological value of contributing through work and the identity and belonging that come from that. And I don't even think obsolescence becoming common will help to normalize this state. People want to contribute, and it hurts when they aren't needed.

Re: Automation Agenda of the Davos Elite

#40

Post by pacala » Sat, Jan 26, 2019, 2:12 AM UTC

triviatise wrote: post #8

airbreather wrote: post #2

So when a significant portion of the population has no work because they have been replaced by machines, who will buy what the machines make (or do)? Seems like a short sighted race to extinction. Not everything that can be done should be done. Footnote:in the long run if society survives the initial shock, I predict it will actually lead to a resurgence in artisanal crafts to manufacture bespoke items that are prize…

there is an infinite amount of work to be done. There are needs unfulfilled today because there arent enough people and therefore the price is too high. There will always be work that machines cant do.

Examples? Especially, an infinite series of examples?

The point of life is to keep entropy forces at bay for long enough to raise the next generation. As living beings, the core point of humans is to gather enough food and build a good enough shelter to survive through the next winter.

Society will succumb to nihilism, depression and lack of meaning long before those 'infinite' amount of work will ever be tapped.