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Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

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Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#491

Post by Sebb767 »

autoexec wrote: post #481
speedybird wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toilet paper scalpers... Last year I scoffed at the people buying two or three packages of toilet paper. I thought that was selfish, and refused to participate in that hysteria. Then a few weeks later, I was wiping my ass with paper towels for a month because I ran out of toilet paper and couldn't buy more. It got me thinking that I should buy a bidet. It also got me thinking that if I had been "part of the problem"…

It convinced me to keep a reasonable amount in reserve at least. I don't expect another run on it like before, but toilet paper isn't likely to go bad sitting on a shelf. I can keep a few extra packs around 'just in case' and I can't see the price of toilet paper doing anything but going up in the future, so getting a little extra now makes sense.

This mentality actually was part of the problem. One person buying a few packs is nothing compared to a lot of people thinking they need to increase their stock by just one pack.

Not to accuse you, it's the sane thing to do. But part of the shortage wasn't caused by hoaders, but by a lot of people stocking up a little.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#492

Post by autoexec »

evandwight wrote: post #246
valeness wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a pretty privileged viewpoint imo. This one small thing lost the public's trust? Not the fact that cops used to pull me over for no reason because I lived in a poor neighborhood? Not the fact that my family member's lives were ruined because of tiny drug-related infractions? Not the fact that we went on a pointless 20+ year war for no reason (just the one within my lifetime)? Really. Wearing a mask is the bre…

I think you are misinterpreting. They lost faith in medical experts. I don't think hes talking about the US system as a whole but instead trusting the advice that vaccines are safe, masks work, etc. Medical advice.

Can't blame that on the CDC's pandemic response either. Scientists take money to put out fake studies for dangerous products, medical journals publish absolute trash for cash, doctors take bribes from phrama companies, phamra companies bury evidence that their products are killing people and push for more sales, the FDA bypasses it's own process to push out new dangerous drugs as regulatory capture weakens what little oversight exists, and nobody is being held meaningfully accountable for any of it.

If our entire goal was to erode the trust of the American people in science and medicine we couldn't have done a better job. We lost the game before the pandemic and haven't done a thing to turn that around. The sackler family pays a fraction of their profits and get immunity forever. Stella Immanuel still has a medical license. Corporations continue to put profit over human lives and can poison whole populations with no risk of prison time. It doesn't bode well for the future.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#493

Post by SamoyedFurFluff »

18pfsmt wrote: post #485
spookthesunset wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wonderful thing about your statement is it is unclear just what “side” is correct. You say “ The more you push, the more resistance there is. Doesn't matter how right you are and how wrong they are.” That applies a ton to a bunch of ”pro mitigation” people out there who absolutely refuse to look at the data and science. Both strongly show that covid “badness” is very strongly correlated with age to the extent tha…

One only need look at Sweden and their results. They took minimal action, allowed the youngest to remain in school w/o masks, and only canceled large events. We are now starting to see the all-cause mortality stats and they are proving Sweden's approach minimized the most harm.

Do you have a source that Sweden minimized the most harm (and the definition of harm in this case)? I’m not saying this is wrong I just haven’t heard of this fact before and I’m interested in reading the study for myself. Thanks!

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#494

Post by autoexec »

Sebb767 wrote: post #491
autoexec wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It convinced me to keep a reasonable amount in reserve at least. I don't expect another run on it like before, but toilet paper isn't likely to go bad sitting on a shelf. I can keep a few extra packs around 'just in case' and I can't see the price of toilet paper doing anything but going up in the future, so getting a little extra now makes sense.

This mentality actually was part of the problem. One person buying a few packs is nothing compared to a lot of people thinking they need to increase their stock by just one pack. Not to accuse you, it's the sane thing to do. But part of the shortage wasn't caused by hoaders, but by a lot of people stocking up a little.

I agree. it's kind of unavoidable, but I took care to only grab a little extra over a long period, and hopefully if people do the same then the next time there's a problem in supply they won't have the sudden pressure to buy up everything available and the jerks who buy up pallets and fill the backs of pickup trucks will be stuck again with product they can't move.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#495

Post by Izkata »

sk2020 wrote: post #245
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-... The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effective…

There is a data indicating masks are not effect source control for respiratory illnesses. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article I think the single study that supported cloth face coverings of no particular standard of performance was a mechanistic study that depends on the belief that respiratory illness spread is a direct function of the distance water droplets of an arbitrary threshold size travel…

> is a direct function of the distance water droplets of an arbitrary threshold size travel from a simulated sneeze. Which, of course, is so obviously true it needs no supporting evidence.

Except it turned out to be false, the primary mode of transmission for sars-cov-2 is aerosols that can spread throughout a room (hence the need for good ventilation), not droplets that quickly fall to the ground (which was what social distancing and masking was predicated on).

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#496

Post by mint2 »

whimsicalism wrote: post #400
speedybird wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solution, be honest: "Masks work, but we don't have enough and need them for hospitals so you're not allowed to buy any. Wrap a tshirt around your face instead, it's probably better than nothing."

The government cannot easily quickly ban the buying/selling of a certain thing like that. Just not how it works, far too slow moving.

Huh come to think of it, banning the sale of masks would have been the most brilliant strategy to get people wearing masks.

Imagine if instead of putting out a press release, they had quietly banned selling masks by retailers and then 3 days later when people caught wind of it explained the shortage mean they were only for hospital workers.

All the anti government reactionaries that are now anti-maskers would be the most ardent mask wearers.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#497

Post by eftychis »

autoexec wrote: post #476
titzer wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO it was just a stupid call, because in the face of conflicting data, it would have been a better default option to recommend masks. That's easier to walk back than "oops, we were lying because we don't trust you rubes enough not to hoard, even when explicitly instructed not to hoard." In the beginning of the pandemic I, with effectively zero sewing skills, made a cloth mask out of spare clothing. They could have…

I agree. Wanting to keep supplies to healthcare workers wouldn't have even been all that hard. Thanks to the horrific amount of consolidation in retail they could have gone to only a handful of major players like amazon and walmart and said "Please pull these masks off of shelves and help us save them for healthcare workers" and that would have kept them out of the hands of the vast majority of the population. A few…

I am not sure if going to e.g. Amazon or Walmart would have worked. If this is timed incorrectly it is easy to cause needless mob hoarding -- see toilet paper de-buckle...

That said yes blatant misinformation backfired royally. I recall at the point already people were calling bullshit and ignoring the "do not need masks" guideline.

This did not happen only in the U.S. or just due to the masks. E.g. the handling of Astrazeneca and other vaccination complications have instilled fear and also a sense of mistrust.

I think there would be a few people not wearing masks or not vaccinated but the percentage would be much lower -- low enough that we can progress forward. The moment masks and vaccinations became a political tool in the U.S. and there was no political solidarity it was game over. Couple that with lying and can you really blame people not trusting the government?

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#498

Post by Izkata »

valeness wrote: post #206
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-... The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effective…

(speaking generally here at those I've seen share the same rage, not accusing you directly) I just cannot wrap my head around being so upset that a public official lied you're willing to sever friendships, familial ties, and sacrifice your career because you refuse to follow sane and frankly manageable guidelines to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It's not even that the messaging is currently or has been conflicting…

> I just cannot wrap my head around being so upset that a public official lied you're willing to sever friendships, familial ties, and sacrifice your career because you refuse to follow sane and frankly manageable guidelines to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It's not even that the messaging is currently or has been conflicting now. It's like carrying a grudge for years over the smallest of infractions. Are people so bored, they have nothing going on other than to get in a big tizzy about having to wear a mask?

It's rare, but some of us developed actual health issues from the mask itself, be it the reduced airflow or excess humidity from trapped exhalation. I didn't make the connection for myself until this spring when the mandate was lifted and my problems completely went away.

So, I have no intention of wearing masks ever again, regardless of mandates.

It's not just a grudge or being stubborn when people are asking you to actively hurt yourself.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#499

Post by thaumasiotes »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #82
colordrops wrote: post #10

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-... The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effective…

> The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use.

No, that wasn't the real fear.

> But instead of just saying that, the message from the vast majority of public health officials (and media types like Sanjay Gupta) was that "masks don't work for the public". It's not hard to go back to March 2020 and find lots of videos to this effect.

This was the real fear. They were telling you then what they really believed. (And there was plenty of evidence supporting it.) The statements now to the effect that they were lying all along for the greater good reflect the idea that it's better to be perceived as an evil genius than as a buffoon. They do not reflect reality.

Compare https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-p... :

> A few weeks ago, I wrote a blog post on face masks. It reviewed the evidence and found that they probably helped prevent the spread of disease. Then it asked: how did the WHO, CDC, etc get this so wrong?

> I went into it thinking they’d lied to us, hoping to prevent hoarders from buying up so many masks that there weren’t enough for health workers. Turns out that’s not true. The CDC has been singing the same tune for the past ten years. Swine flu, don’t wear masks. SARS, don’t wear masks. They’ve been really consistent on this point.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#500

Post by colordrops »

whimsicalism wrote: post #414
sjwalter wrote: post #411

Dick Thaler, who won a Nobel prize in econ, wrote a book called Nudge (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nudge_(book for more info), which I'd bet good money Fauci and the entire public policy elite have read and internalized. The book is basically about how the ruling class should think about structuring policy and messaging to create the outcomes they desire--"choice architecture". Thaler's work describes how publ…

I'll go mask off: yeah, I think "nudging" is probably necessary in a country where 45% of people legitimately believe in ghosts and 30% believe they've interacted with one before. You've got to be in a serious intellectual bubble to be thinking that most people are carefully considering the options and making the best choices for themselves.

How does that line of thinking not contradict with the entire concept of democracy? "The rulers know better than the proles so they should make the calls." How do we trust these idiots to vote in the right leaders?
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