Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#321

Post by thepasswordis » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 7:01 PM UTC

LivelyTortoise wrote: post #310

thepasswordis wrote: post #230

You know who doesn't try to hide this stuff from people? Bad actors. Conspiracy theorists, scammers, straight up liars. So you've got on one hand "the experts" who are being vague and seemingly not wanting to tell you anything, and then on the other hand you've got the crazies who will tell you whatever you want to hear. It's something that is increasingly frustrating me about the vaccines. The vaccines have become a…

I watched the video you linked, it's amusing and well presented, but if you pause and read the headlines, a lot of the lower numbers ( So those ones seem kind of disingenuous to include, especially the former. (I don't disagree with your general points though)

Oh yeah, and I don't mean to imply that the video I linked is a good example of truth, just that's the sort of thing that gets shared in conservative spaces.

If the response was "wait, WTF is this video? Fauci always just gives us the bare truth", that would be great.

But unfortunately, some of the things that the authorities have lied about have become the ground truth for conservatives, so videos like the one I linked get taken as truth without any additional inspection.

It's an example of the problem I'm articulating.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#322

Post by h2odragon » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 7:01 PM UTC

psychlops wrote: post #299

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you pretty much 100%. My anger is that, by not being truthful, I feel like health authorities played right into the hands of the conspiracy theorists and everyone trying to sow doubt that this is some big power grab.

Well, it's also a big power grab so that doesn't help.

Everyone is grabbing for their own power, for their own reasons; they feel this tailwind but they assume that it means they're right, not that they're temporarily useful to other parties with their own agendas.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#323

Post by betterunix2 » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 7:02 PM UTC

jimbob45 wrote: post #158

betterunix2 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Censorship is not what causes large numbers of US citizens to refuse this vaccine. If the Republicans in leadership positions took this seriously from the start and did not go around casting doubt on vaccination far more people would get the vaccine. If the previous president had not politicized the response to COVID and had simply told his followers to do what the CDC says we would have many millions more people get…

This is exactly what I'm tracking for the 2022 election - is the public able to separate anti-mask/vaxx choice from anti-vaxxing within their minds? Or will the right be tied to anti-vaxxing by proxy? I'm leaning toward the latter. Most people I talk to think the right is actively pushing anti-vaxxing efforts despite top federal Congressional leadership explicitly encouraging vaccine procurement (and their former POT…

The right's story has generally been that people should get the vaccine if they want to because "freedom." Trump literally said this in front of crowds of his vaccine-hesitant supporters. Prominent Republicans like Rand Paul are going around casting doubt on the credibility of Dr. Fauci and the CDC/NIH, and Republicans have done nothing to address the tidal wave of conspiracy theories making rounds among their constituents.

Get back to me when Trump gets on stage at some rally and says, "Anyone who thinks the vaccine makes them magnetic is a moron." Republicans are free to call it a Trump vaccine if they are saying, "Real Patriots do what their country needs, and getting the Trump Vaccine is what we need Real Patriots to do." If that is what it would take to convince people to get the shot I have no objection. Unfortunately I am not seeing that happen; instead what I see are non-committal statements, shouts of "freedom!" and Republican governors preventing local leaders from imposing mask or vaccine mandates in their states.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#324

Post by speedybird » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 7:02 PM UTC

GloriousKoji wrote: post #177

ssully wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's also worth pointing out that even with them saying masks aren't effective for the public, there was still a run on masks. I don't have the exact date, but when I looked for n95's at my local hardware store in March 2020, they were all gone and this was definitely before we were told to wear masks. And soon after we started getting stories about hospitals running low on PPE. I am not saying what the right…

If they were open and upfront about limited masks and reserving N95 and other PPE for healthcare workers there was a possibility of a social stigma of individuals buying up and using N95 and PPE. Like how scalpers get the stink eye and angry stares when they take all the toilet paper, hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes. Sure the masks might not have all gone to the right place but I imagine it would have been bett…

Toilet paper scalpers... Last year I scoffed at the people buying two or three packages of toilet paper. I thought that was selfish, and refused to participate in that hysteria. Then a few weeks later, I was wiping my ass with paper towels for a month because I ran out of toilet paper and couldn't buy more. It got me thinking that I should buy a bidet. It also got me thinking that if I had been "part of the problem" and bought more toilet paper than I needed, I would've had enough for myself.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#325

Post by speedybird » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 7:04 PM UTC

ssully wrote: post #293

GloriousKoji wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they were open and upfront about limited masks and reserving N95 and other PPE for healthcare workers there was a possibility of a social stigma of individuals buying up and using N95 and PPE. Like how scalpers get the stink eye and angry stares when they take all the toilet paper, hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes. Sure the masks might not have all gone to the right place but I imagine it would have been bett…

Doubtful. Just think about the toilet paper shortage; a common household item that never would have had a supply shortage if people just maintained their regular buying patterns. Now think of masks; a non-household item that a small percentage of households carried. Even if people were reasonable and only bought an amount to cover their needs, that would have introduced hundreds of millions of new buyers for that ite…

Solution, be honest: "Masks work, but we don't have enough and need them for hospitals so you're not allowed to buy any. Wrap a tshirt around your face instead, it's probably better than nothing."

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#326

Post by hammock » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 7:04 PM UTC

sb52191 wrote: post #32

hammock wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That’s the biggest downside Downside for whom?

Society? People who want their fellow citizens to work toward greater goods collectively?

I guess we don't believe in disruption of suboptimal establishment forces anymore on HN.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#327

Post by Jensson » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 7:05 PM UTC

ssully wrote: post #282

Jensson wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US government, and nearly every government, has a history of lying to people. This is something you should work to fix rather than just say things like "but the other party lies a bit more, so I also have to lie to defend myself! And people doesn't listen anyway so why does it matter if I lie?" etc. I see so much bullshit people use to defend their sides lies and deception here. To me ensuring the government st…

I agree to an extent, but at the end of the day it's unrealistic. The government is an entity made up of people with their own biases, problems, and their job on the line if they fuck up. I think there is a meme of honorable government employee who will resign before letting down the American people, but the reality is most people (and government employee's) would be more concerned about covering their ass. This is a…

> This is a long way of me saying that people are liars, the government is made of people, so the government will always lie.

I live in Sweden, and our politicians seems to be a lot more honest than both sides of American politics. So from my perspective you aren't even close to hit the theoretical "politicians are people, people lie" limit. And until you at least gets somewhat close to it I'd argue that you should strive for it rather than let politicians run wild with lies and deception as you do now.

A good start would be to stop with the "Bundle a million unrelated bills and call it the 'Bill of Freedom!'" thing that is going on. Those bills are there to sow division and hate by saying things like "Our enemy are against freedom, vote for us to get the bill of freedom accepted!" etc.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#328

Post by atatatat » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 7:05 PM UTC

psychlops wrote: post #299

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you pretty much 100%. My anger is that, by not being truthful, I feel like health authorities played right into the hands of the conspiracy theorists and everyone trying to sow doubt that this is some big power grab.

Well, it's also a big power grab so that doesn't help.

Never waste a crisis.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#329

Post by croutonwagon » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 7:06 PM UTC

nielsbot wrote: post #217

valeness wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(speaking generally here at those I've seen share the same rage, not accusing you directly) I just cannot wrap my head around being so upset that a public official lied you're willing to sever friendships, familial ties, and sacrifice your career because you refuse to follow sane and frankly manageable guidelines to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It's not even that the messaging is currently or has been conflicting…

It doesn't have to be rational. Vaccines mandates are already common for school children, nurses, (and maybe teachers, but I'm not sure about that one) The rage over masks (and things like "CRT") is being intentionally stoked to win elections. The plan is to make it an us vs them issue. Again, it's intentional and cynical. If you stoke rage about mask wearing (and vaccines) you can position yourself as also being a v…

>It doesn't have to be rational. Vaccines mandates are already common for school children, nurses, (and maybe teachers, but I'm not sure about that one)

Even this argument ignores nuance.

The vaccines in these schedules are mandated for 2 reasons

1. The diseases they treat directly impact their population in a major way in large numbers

2. Immunization not only prevents the negatives impacts of 1, but also prevent the spread.

As an exmaple for #2. Take Pertussis and TDAP. Even adults that have children will often get a booster. The reasoning is sound there, you reduce the chance of transmitting pertussis to an infant. This is especially true for premature babies that may not have had the chance to get the anitbodies from the mother, assuming she got a booster during pregnancy.

As of right now. COVID-19 has a pretty small impact on children directly ( hospitalization rates at their peak were like 1.9 per 100k for under 18 [2]) . And even nationally its much smaller than any of the diseases used to compare it to (like Measles which has pretty severe complications in like 30% of those that contracted it, regardless of age [1])

AND the vaccine isnt particularly proven to reduce spread [3]. To add insult to injury, CDC specifically stopped even recording breakthrough infection rates unless they were severe as of May 1, 2021.

So it would make sense to question a vaccination mandate for those under 18...

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/meas.html [2] https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html [3] https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/do....

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#330

Post by kccqzy » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 7:06 PM UTC

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #82

colordrops wrote: post #10

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

In my opinion the biggest example of this was the poor mask guidance early on in the pandemic that was subsequently reversed. Zeynep Tufekci had a very good piece in the NYT on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-... The real fear was that there would be a run on masks by the public, making them unavailable for hospital use. Also, at the time, there wasn't clear evidence of the effective…

The goal of public health officials is to reduce the overall amount of deaths / infections / disease spread. The goal is not to ensure maximum survivability for a specific individual.

The mask guidance made perfect sense in this light. For the overall benefit of the society, masks were prioritized for health care professionals rather than the general public, in the face of limited supply. But of course wearing a mask improves your individual survivability so you should wear one even if public health officials tell you not to.

The same thing is currently happening with booster (third) shots. For the pandemic to ease worldwide, it is deemed more important to send vaccines to poorer countries with low vaccination rates rather than using them as third shots in rich countries. But if you want to maximize your own chances, of course you should get a third shot.

Public health officials deal with the whole population. You deal with a population size of one. It's a net win for them if their health policy reduced disease by a large proportion in one half of a population but increased it slightly in a different half. It's game over for you if you happen to be on the wrong side.