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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#481

Post by jotm »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #473
rmk wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited. Russia intends to use Chernobyl as a deterrent to NATO, according to the report (how, I do not know). It is also not straightforward to put a NATO ally right on Russia's vulnerable flank (it's endless plains and flat ground from Ukraine to Moscow, which has always been a source of strategic vulnerability for Moscow), so admitting Ukraine to NATO was ne…

>Ukrainians overthrew their corrupt government and made moves to establish a genuine western-style democracy with rule of law It's believed by many that the US ran a coup that installed a US puppet. That alleged puppet ended the long-standing arrangement that granted Russia access to its only warm water port. Losing access to this port made it almost a certainty that Russia would annex Crimea, which it did.

It did, and a decade later it launched an all out attack on the whole of Ukraine to "protect" the newly recognized DNR/LNR. A paper thin excuse, something a HOIIV player or a deranged dictator would come up with.

With no strong opposition to that, drunk on success, ~~Hitler~~ Putin can go further.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#482

Post by outworlder »

xtian wrote: post #435
tlear wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You missed the step where he needs to brutalize population into submission. This will take time and mountains of corpses. He can’t just put a puppet there and call it a day. Puppet will be dead by week after. No he has to occupy the country and crush the opposition.

Willing to put money on that?

Risky bet, since this scenario has already happened before.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#483

Post by trashtester »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

I think MAD is only half the equation. Even if Putin didn't possess a single nuke, (EDIT:) Nato might very well have stood by watching today, as the conventional force deployed by Putin is pretty significant in itself.

Similarly, had NATO deployed 500k soldiers fully armed with modern weaponry in Poland, Lithuania and Rumania as Putin was building up his forces, and added a warning that Ukraine would be granted instant membership to NATO if he didn't pull back from the border, he probably would have pulled back from the border.

But NATO doesn't have those forces, primarily because most European countries have neglected their armed forces over the past 30 years. In reality, a conventional confrontation with Putin would be very difficult. Eventually NATO might win, but it would take years.

Given the fact that the EU alone has around 10x the GDP of Russia, the EU could relatively easily have had an army that is 2x to 5x more powerful than Russia's, even without assistance from the Anglosphere (which would have left the Anglosphere able to focus on China).

One may hope that the EU learns from this. Otherwise, I fear the result of today's events will be a massive level of nuclear proliferation. If NATO cannot even keep their neighbours safe, what confidence can more remote countries have that they will be protected if attacked by a nuclear power, such as Russia or China?

And once virtually every country has nukes, they WILL see use.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#484

Post by bluetwo »

jskrablin wrote: post #462
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

MAD works both ways. And some European countries (like the above mentioned France) have nuclear weapons. So I don't think Putin would make it to the French coastline easily. Ukraine should have made use of the material from the Chernobyl power plant while it had the chance. A threat of dirty bomb being delivered to Moscow would have stopped Putin. I guess their politicians are too naive and didn't consider this an op…

Chernobyl is the ultimate dead-man's switch.

It needs 24/7 maintenance.

Do nothing and it melts down and destroyers the globe.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#485

Post by pc2g4d »

ethbr0 wrote: post #273
pkaye wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> America will do nothing except 'strongly condemn' what's happening, just like the rest of the world. People don't want a 'world police' anymore.

Then they're going to have to remember what a world without police looks like.

No post body was provided.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#486

Post by dillondoyle »

I'm very skeptical of the following question, but I found from a reputable reporter on Twitter, and seems like at least not an obvious fake website. But I don't see how this can be true... Anyone smarter than me care to alleviate the following concerns:

Increased radiation. On this map some of the levels go from ~750 nsv/h to 10,200. one at the center went from 2,000 to 65,000 in the last day.

seems crazy and inconceivable?

https://www.saveecobot.com/en/radiation-maps#10/51.3619/30.1...

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#487

Post by outworlder »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #405
sofixa wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His plan isn't to take entire control of Ukraine militarily but to swap the legit government with a puppet one he would control at will. Once he succeed, which is a matter of a few days,he'll gradually withdraw most of the forces, things will slowly return to normal and in a few years Ukraine will essentially (if not effectively) annex itself to Russia I wouldn't be so certain. I don't think Ukrainians would just c…

Genuine question: how much does Russian public opinion matter? It's not like Russia has free elections. Iran's Islamic Republic seems pretty secure despite low public approval. I'm sure public opinion is important, but I don't understand its role in a dictatorship.

Popular opinion in a dictatorship matters very little. Much more important is the opinion of other people in power. Those might see how unpopular the dictator is with the masses as an opportunity and 'forget' to deploy some security measures...

There's a reason sanctions are being applied to rich families.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#488

Post by irthomasthomas »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

I said this below but Putin may not be so MAD. That is, he may feel destruction is not so mutually assured now. MAD was only really feasible when just three countries had nukes. It was abandoned a while back. Russia chose to pursue nuclear supremacy, over conventional defense. They have the biggest arsenal, as well as super-nuclear and super-sonic ICBMs to deliver them. Russia is the only country I know that thinks it might actually be able to win a nuclear war.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#489

Post by [deleted] »

lordnacho wrote: post #477
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

There's this concept in game theory that it's sometimes worth it to hurt yourself in order to hurt an uncooperative player. If you are always thinking "how do I minimize harm to myself" you get salamied to death. Same as in a poker game, you can't fold every time someone raises big, just because you don't know which times he actually has good cards. If you do he ends up with all your chips. Other thing is about MAD.…

[deleted]

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#490

Post by pc2g4d »

shawn-butler wrote: post #140
ncallaway wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU and America have promised to help with economic sanctions on Russia and by providing military aid and lethal aid. The EU and America have explicitly not promised to help out with direct military action against Russia. The United States and Biden have said multiple times that the US will not have forces engage Russia directly in Ukraine. What specific promises are you referring to?

The US makes empty promises. Read the Budapest memorandum in which we made security guarantees so Ukraine would give up its nuclear arsenal[0]. Russian aggression would certainly be much more calculated if Ukraine still had that capability. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...

It is Russia that has abdicated its responsibilities under the Budapest Memorandum. Give it a read, it takes half a minute.
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