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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#461

Post by bernardlunn »

pietro wrote: post #369
massysett wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What about the roads themselves? I'm curious how an autonomous truck will handle a snow-covered highway, fog, potholes, and tight corners caused by narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc." It won't; at least, it won't need to handle narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc. The autonomous truck need not drive the whole route that a human driver does now. Drive down the Ohio Turnpike and you will see numerous p…

> The autonomous truck need not drive the whole route that a human driver does now. Exactly. They'll be more like trains than trucks as we know them; they'll simply have more tracks available.

Makes sense. Do the hundreds of straight highway miles driverless, then transfer to human driver for tricky last bits. Dumb question - why not use trains?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#462

Post by Piskvorrr »

rtkwe wrote: post #248
peterwwillis wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Braking distance is a factor of speed, weight, brakes, tires and road surface. A 40 ton truck can only stop so fast with rubber tires on typical brakes on a typical highway road surface. Race cars are designed to stop faster than passenger cars. Their brakes are huge, they're designed with exotic components to transfer heat to air faster, designed to take higher heat for longer, the cars are designed to flow air over…

> Race cars are designed to stop faster than passenger cars. Their brakes are huge, they're designed with exotic components to transfer heat to air faster, designed to take higher heat for longer, the cars are designed to flow air over the brakes, and they cost much more and don't last as long, and have advanced computerized systems to optimize brake utilization. A lot of that isn't to brake faster but to keep the br…

In other words, look at aircraft, not at racecars. What you have described is practically the only mode of operation for wheelbrakes there ("brakes catch fire during emergency braking? No biggie, just keep an eye on them while they cool.").

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#463

Post by chiph »

This will work, until they realize that the drivers were responsible for doing a pre-trip inspection of the truck and trailer (looking for bad tires, burnt-out lights, worn air-hoses). The warehouse workers aren't going to do this, as their boss is going to be telling them "Just get the thing loaded and don't worry about that."

The result will be increasing accident rates, not only involving the trucks, but also cars near them (when a truck tire blows, the explosion is significant). Russian dash cam footage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prTiFClMM0A

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#464

Post by marviel »

beachstartup wrote: post #458
sqeaky wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't wait for the day that putting 0 human drivers on the road is a PR positive, because no road tripping families are put at risk.

not going to happen in the US. you may not like it, but that has nothing to do with reality.

Reasoning pls

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#465

Post by usrusr »

acveilleux wrote: post #327
madeofpalk wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!). Would that be significant safer and more efficient to make it worthwhile? If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I p…

They started truck automation in mining and container terminals in ports. Areas with no other traffic and the possibility of active guidance (beacons along/embedded in the route and so on.) Highways are the next obvious use. I could see automated trucks driving down the transcanadian highway for example or similar long interstate stretch. I gotta say though, if we're going that way, why not go intermodal, add a RR ri…

Rail suffers a lot from inflexibility and the massive redundancy required to survive the occasional track maintenance. Trailer-on-railroad does not really improve on that. A true logistics moonshot would have to go all the way to "roadgoing, powered railcars" that could platoon on that double-track and maybe opt into some form of power delivery (overhead line?) where available, switching on the fly between rubber/air and steel wheelsets as required.

The beauty of this expensive approach is that it would not only obviate waiting for a train going in the right direction and the requirement for mode switching terminals (those are just the fair weather sailing benefits), but also eliminate the inherent fragility of highly interdependent railroad schedules. Where conventional rail quickly breaks down completely, road can gracefully degrade towards a massive traffic jam slowly grinding forward on some dirt road fallback route.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#466

Post by rlucas »

mschuster91 wrote: post #19
thescriptkiddie wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

> For long haul, you can just use trains. RoLa (Rollende Landstraße) as we call this in Germany, or just transporting the flatbed carriages, requires a SHITLOAD of manual work, unlike containers where you don't even need people on the locos in the yard anymore. Not to mention that long-haul-via-rail is only viable in the US... in Europe, it virtually doesn't exist anymore. It just isn't profitable due to various exte…

> 2) freight trains don't get priority over passenger trains

Interestingly in the northwestern u.s. (and I suspect throughout the western u.s.) the main rail corridors prioritize freight.

Discovered this while, as a regular Seattle - Portland traveler, I found myself stationary while lumber rolled by. Amtrak's leases are subordinate to the freight lines.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#467

Post by gnaritas »

sqeaky wrote: post #447
gnaritas wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Companies would be insured against a total recall due to software/hardware failure I don't think that's true at all. Recalls are a manufactures problem, the local trucking company is just going to have normal auto insurance just as with his human drivers.

When a recall does happen how do the trucking companies keep on trucking? I mean surely this happens now, how do they solve this problem?

It doesn't happen. For that to happen every trucking manufacture would have have to recall every truck and that's simply never happened. Recalls are generally more along the lines of part Y has an issue, bring the truck in and we'll replace that part.

The same will be true of automated trucking, parts will be recalled, and companies will have multiple different trucking manufactures to choose from so the notion that all the trucks will be recalled just isn't realistic.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#468

Post by sqeaky »

intended wrote: post #457
sqeaky wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America is not a single unified entity. All it takes is one trucking business to outcompete another for all the trucking companies to follow suit in the following decade. As for individuals, the government might gives tax breaks or ban the things. I think it is most that likely early adopters will use them and brag to everyone how much they save on fuel and airline tickets and how more (work, reading, video games, et…

Think Monsanto, not Ford/GM. And why would I want more places I can work, at least when I drive I am not expected to be working.

Your inability to dictate where and when you work will not dictate my ability choose where and when I will work.

Also Monsanto has nothing to do with anything here, unless you care to explain.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#469

Post by Grishnakh »

peterwwillis wrote: post #168
schiffern wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. How does this change if truck design and "per-axel" fee incentives were rationalized[1][2] to instead maximize the number of axles? Doubling the number of axles reduces road damage by 94%. Currently semi trucks account for 6% of vehicle miles driven[3] and 99% of all traffic damage to roads. But would this measur…

Braking distance is a factor of speed, weight, brakes, tires and road surface. A 40 ton truck can only stop so fast with rubber tires on typical brakes on a typical highway road surface. Race cars are designed to stop faster than passenger cars. Their brakes are huge, they're designed with exotic components to transfer heat to air faster, designed to take higher heat for longer, the cars are designed to flow air over…

Brake heating is not a real issue with emergency braking, only with frequent braking which race cars do. That's why "upgrading" to "big brake" systems on passenger cars is usually a waste of money and reduces performance: unless you're driving on a track where you have to brake a lot, and the cumulative braking keeps the brakes hot, you're not helping. Even worse, the brake pad compounds used for race cars are different, and are designed to maintain performance even when very hot, whereas passenger car brakes have to have great performance when cold.

The bottom line is: a single panic stop on the highway isn't limited by your brakes on a passenger car, it's limited by your tires. The more friction your tires have with the road, the faster you'll slow down.

So yes, if you want a 40 ton truck to stop faster, it's completely doable: just increase the amount of rubber in contact with the road. Adding more wheels will do that quickly. However, more tires means more rolling friction which means less fuel economy and fuel economy is critically important to long-haul trucking. Also, adding more axles causes maneuverability problems in the city. Notice that on standard trailers, the rear axle set can be moved forward and back. They set them in the rearward position for long hauls, and in the forward position for shorter hauls.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#470

Post by Grishnakh »

watt wrote: post #309
schiffern wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. How does this change if truck design and "per-axel" fee incentives were rationalized[1][2] to instead maximize the number of axles? Doubling the number of axles reduces road damage by 94%. Currently semi trucks account for 6% of vehicle miles driven[3] and 99% of all traffic damage to roads. But would this measur…

If there's no driver in the equation (no monthly salary to pay), I guess the the incentive will shift towards having more, smaller trucks.

Not necessarily. More, smaller trucks will mean your transport costs will go up because you get less economy of scale. Eliminating the driver helps mitigate that of course, but going to smaller trucks then eliminates the savings you got by eliminating the driver. Having more, smaller trucks would be more versatile however, if you don't need to transport full truckloads of cargo between certain points.

Also, drivers as I understand it aren't paid monthly salaries, they're paid by the mile.

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