The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs • Hacker News Board

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#441

Post by uncoder0 » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 10:11 PM UTC

ars wrote: post #388

madeofpalk wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!). Would that be significant safer and more efficient to make it worthwhile? If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I p…

> If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I previously expected. Like 20 years sooner. It is 100% certain without any doubt whatsoever that this is how it will start. It will start with dedicated interstate roads (or lanes) just for driverless trucks, and then cars. After some time all freeways will be 100% driverless. I do…

Can you elaborate on why you don't see mixed use ever happening? Do you think its regulatory, liability or technological... or maybe some combination of the three?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#442

Post by OrwellianChild » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 10:30 PM UTC

lloyd-christmas wrote: post #300

positr0n wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but those 30 deaths are people knowingly working a job that society understands is dangerous, not a family in a minivan driving to grandma's house that was unlucky enough to be in the wrong part of the highway at the wrong time. That is a huge difference to most people.

> not a family in a minivan driving to grandma's house. A total of 3,660 people died in large truck crashes in 2014. Sixteen percent of these deaths were truck occupants, 68 percent were occupants of cars and other passenger vehicles, and 15 percent were pedestrians, bicyclists or motorcyclists. The number of people who died in large truck crashes was 16 percent higher in 2014 than in 2009 [1] One incident would hard…

Thanks for bringing data and scale to the conversation...

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#443

Post by quanticle » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 10:34 PM UTC

UVB-76 wrote: post #164

MertsA wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were able to dispense with the cab and any human interfaces/amenities, that would cut out a big chunk of weight and drag. It would look radically different but just think of all of the components on a truck that are only there for the driver. No need for a cab, AC system, heater, pedals, steering wheel and linkages, airbags, seats, pretty much all of the glass and windows, doors, etc. The added sensors, teleme…

Even if we remove all the facilities for a driver, i likely you would still need a human guard. Although thinking about it, the guard could travel in a separate vehicle, and could be responsible for overseeing an entire convoy of trucks at one time.

I don't know what became of it, but at one point there was a DARPA initiative to do just that for military convoys. The reasoning was that automated trucks would allow soldiers to treat the convoy as a "dumb herd" that would follow and be overseen by a squad of heavily armed and armored "sheepdogs". This would improve protection for soldiers, while simultaneously improving the efficiency of battlefield logistics.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#444

Post by sqeaky » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 10:43 PM UTC

beachstartup wrote: post #419

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that will be the near future; we've already done the exact same thing with airline pilots, who spend most of a flight on autopilot (hence the expression). This allows them to do long shifts with much lower mental pressure. I'm even imagining 24 hour drivers, who let the truck drive autonomously at night on quiet roads at low speeds while they sleep and live in the truck. A bit like lonely spaceship pilots fro…

i think this is a likely first application. you can boost schedules and efficiency massively by simply allowing a truck to drive itself to the next waypoint overnight (maybe not even the whole night -- just to the next safe stopping area) when the driver would normally be sleeping. if there's an emergency, simply stop and pull over and alert the driver. this is probably also much easier to sell to existing industry a…

I can't wait for the day that putting 0 human drivers on the road is a PR positive, because no road tripping families are put at risk.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#445

Post by sqeaky » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 10:44 PM UTC

ars wrote: post #388

madeofpalk wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!). Would that be significant safer and more efficient to make it worthwhile? If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I p…

> If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I previously expected. Like 20 years sooner. It is 100% certain without any doubt whatsoever that this is how it will start. It will start with dedicated interstate roads (or lanes) just for driverless trucks, and then cars. After some time all freeways will be 100% driverless. I do…

> I don't anticipate mixed use (driverless + drivers) ever happening.

but it already has?!

I mean there are already self driving cars being tested on public roads. Technically not driverless, but almost.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#446

Post by sqeaky » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 10:55 PM UTC

intended wrote: post #316

karmacondon wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The company making the vehicles will be responsible for any damages, and paying a massive insurance premium I'm sure. There will be legal consequences for gross negligence and anyone damaged will be made whole. I don't see how that's any different than the system we have now. And the emotional appeals cut both ways. How long before the parents of a child killed by a drunk or sleeping truck driver say "Why was he driv…

That's partly an effect of being on HN. In non tech circles - the vast majority of the world - people are pretty famous for measuring risks by perception and not statistics. The idea of a robotic truck taking away jobs while also being a risk to life? America would take up mass transit before it buys into that system. Man I can see the headlines and political/ emotional arguments now. Godless SV tech priests rob Amer…

America is not a single unified entity. All it takes is one trucking business to outcompete another for all the trucking companies to follow suit in the following decade.

As for individuals, the government might gives tax breaks or ban the things. I think it is most that likely early adopters will use them and brag to everyone how much they save on fuel and airline tickets and how more (work, reading, video games, etc... ) they can do while travelling. Of course there will be holdouts, but they will be quickly outnumbered.

Eventually so few manual drivers will be on the road that they are the exception and 99% of the accidents will be their fault. Then states will start banning driving manually.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#447

Post by sqeaky » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 10:56 PM UTC

gnaritas wrote: post #413

gambiting wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you might be surprised - companies would be insured against a total recall due to software/hardware failure, which would far exceed the cost of any accident a computer could get into, so I guess the premiums might stay relatively high.

> Companies would be insured against a total recall due to software/hardware failure I don't think that's true at all. Recalls are a manufactures problem, the local trucking company is just going to have normal auto insurance just as with his human drivers.

When a recall does happen how do the trucking companies keep on trucking?

I mean surely this happens now, how do they solve this problem?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#448

Post by sqeaky » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 10:59 PM UTC

snuxoll wrote: post #431

dspillett wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but at least from the PoV of public perception the situation is easier to deal with in a way that allays fear. In your example that one drive is taken off the road. That drive is not a problem, and people assume that the remaining drivers are, for the most part, fine and unlikely to make the same mistake. In the automated truck example you can't take that one driver off the road because barring equipment failure…

Human beings don't have the ability to just attain knowledge and experience by a software updated, autonomous vehicles do. Yes, every autonomous truck on the road may be controlled by the same software exhibiting the same behaviors, but unlike a human they can all automatically be updated with new behaviors and share experiences with each other. This is precisely the goal of IBM's Watson if you will remember, an indi…

Likely it will be even better than you describe. Multiple competing companies all with their own software copying what the other teams are doing right. When one fails the others will continue on with lessons learned.

Probably a lot like software development today except with a lower threshold for error, and hopefully the appropriate increase QA.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#449

Post by mark-r » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 11:14 PM UTC

braythwayt wrote: post #73

michaelbuckbee wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was my thought as well. That a new 'tugboat captain' or 'harbor pilot' type role emerges for last mile driving.

But here’s the question: Do these ‘last mile’ drivers sit in the cab? Or operate the rigs from thousands of miles away, like drone pilots, with displays showing 360 degrees around the rig and access to all of its sensors? Last mile driving may not look anything like truck driving.

The video stream bandwidth and requirement for near-zero latency will make remote control very challenging, if not impossible. I'd say the last-mile driver will be in the truck.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#450

Post by draw_down » Tue, Apr 26, 2016, 11:43 PM UTC

anoonmoose wrote: post #264

ilamont wrote: post #218

The demonstration in Europe shows that driverless trucking is right around the corner. The primary remaining barriers are regulatory. What about the roads themselves? I'm curious how an autonomous truck will handle a snow-covered highway, fog, potholes, and tight corners caused by narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc. This is a way of life where I live (Boston area). The article about the Russian driverless van…

Is there any evidence that a technology with billions of dollars in potential would not be used if it was only 99.99% ready? I feel like lots of dangerous stuff has been deployed when it was nowhere near 99% in the past, and I'm not sure why this technology would be any different. People talk about it like it's a lot different, but how safe are regular cars? Nuclear power? Coal power? Honestly I don't even know what…

I don't know what 99% means in this context, but humans are pretty terrible drivers, so I'd be cool with robot-driven automobiles as soon as possible. If the accident rate is below that of humans then it's ready in my opinion.