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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#451

Post by scotty79 »

chasd00 wrote: post #327
scotty79 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That exodus is what crash is. Yes. My question is where "they" are going flee to in anticipation of the crash to actually make the crash happen.

The banks will start to pull back on AI financing because their risk calculations are going up. That will make the news and people will sell their AI stocks and just put cash in a money market fund or something. Stock price decline confirms the bank’s calculations and now they def. aren’t lending to AI companies. That makes the news and now people are really selling their AI stocks which drives the price down further…

> just put cash in a money market fund or something

So you are predicting everybody will escape into dollars. Which by themselves are extremely risky because the world is at the verge of ditching dollar as global currency.

There was already double digit inflation just because during the pandemics US overprinted dollars in relation to the size of the global economy. Imagine what the inflation will be if the dollar economic domain shrinks by half or more.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#452

Post by cjfd »

YZF wrote: post #381
cjfd wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incorrect. The rules based order was first attempted after the first world war and then created after the second one. These are lessen that have been bought with blood. Lots of blood. Megaliters of it. The incredible stupidity of throwing that away is absolutely disgusting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_international_order "The nature of the LIO, as well as its very existence, has been debated by scholars." Nobody is throwing anything away and that thing you think they're throwing away didn't really exist.

Whether or not a 'LIO' exists is not that interesting to me. What is interesting is what actually exists and what has happened in history. What actually exists is an enormous shock after, for instance, world war one where the question arose how it is possible that basically an entire generation of young men was slaughtered. E.g., every small village in France has a memorial of the fallen soldiers during world war one. For many decades after the war commemoration were/are still being held. It used to be that competing for territory was just the normal thing countries did. Then, it became clear that this has a potentially enormous cost in human lives. The obvious conclusion for people who are not sleepwalking through life and through history, is that any political leader who advocates for a change in country borders and does so much as hint to violent means of doing so is totally deranged and immoral. A similar shock has gone through the world after world war two, which, for instance, lead to the creation of the declaration of universal human rights. Among the decent public, it is also concluded that a violation of human rights is deranged in immoral.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#453

Post by dgellow »

robinsoncrusue wrote: post #171

The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in…

> which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point

No chance. Unless that happens after a lots of other countries leave

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#454

Post by pegasus »

dwoldrich wrote: post #428
panarky wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

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Actually, what you're listing above is just another set of beautiful (to you) abstractions. No, "banksters" are not "100% parasitical". The percent is definitely less than 100. But, you know, as they say: the devil is in the details.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#455

Post by scotty79 »

bilekas wrote: post #111
scotty79 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no reality in the market. All prices are speculation, always. If there was any reality involved things like Tesla would crash 3 times already. My question is where the spekulants are going to escape to. I don't think it can be even dollar this time because in this crash dollar most likely will go away as the global currency and the inflation will be devastating.

Ahhhh hehe well there will always be something to speculate on! I don't really know but I know I'm happy I've been hoarding gold. My grandad always drilled it into my mind. Became a habbit over the years!

I wonder what would your granddad say about today's gold prices. And even more curiously how fast they rose in recent years. Gold looks almost as bubbly as the stock market.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#456

Post by mschuster91 »

bborud wrote: post #201
mschuster91 wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, they want Taiwan, but that’s a silly national pride thing. It would not really benefit them to take it by force. We thought the same about Putin, and yet he went and invaded Ukraine. We thought the same about Trump, and yet he went and abducted the president of a sovereign country. Never underestimate nationalist BS or outright mental deficiency.

The difference is desperation. Putin was facing instability and was afraid of ending up like Khadafi. He needed a war. Xi is not facing those challenges. He wants Taiwan, but the Chinese play long games so he can wait.

> Xi is not facing those challenges.

He is facing other challenges, a lot of chickens are coming home to roost - chiefly the demographic collapse, the inevitable result of the one-child policy, but also the rise of wages leading other countries to be the outsourcing target, decades of selling out nature / the environment, a crashing real estate sector, brain drain...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#457

Post by eeeeep »

nate_meurer wrote: post #325
bayarearefugee wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that the Democratic party has fumbled the ball (over and over) and deserves a lot of blame for where we are now, but all of the trans talk in 2024 was driven entirely by the right. The Democratic party wasn't talking about trans people in 2024 (if anything the Democratic campaign was conspicuously avoiding the conversation entirely). The trans "debate" that people remember from that time period was driven ent…

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#458

Post by torginus »

xyzzy123 wrote: post #256
torginus wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I'm less and less inclined to believe in capitalism and money as a concept - we've long past moved the concept of money as universal barter, and into strange and speculative theories about how things ought to be valued, with the most valuable things either emerging from immediately unclear value propositions (impossibly valued companies, high-paid jobs that seemingly dont contribute to society) or artifici…

A bottle of water in the desert and a bottle of water in your fridge don't have the same value.

You're describing gouging and gold rush pricing, which thankfully not a feature any major economic system relies on for everyday operation.

It's entirely reasonable to expect logistical costs to inflate the price of a good, so the price should reflect the market equilibrium value of the service of bringing water into the middle of the desert, not the good.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#459

Post by bertjk »

BobbyJo wrote: post #388
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

> It's mostly in forms of treasuries purchased in USD that pay in USD - this means the indebtedness creates a huge amount of dollars abroad that foreigners have to then spend on US services, driving demand. Strangely enough, this is exactly the opposite of how it works. The dollars abroad tend to stay abroad, as either a more stable alternative to local currencies, or a reserve currency. Likewise, treasuries held abr…

If dollars were being repatriated, but as investment into financial instruments and real estate instead of purchases of goods and services, then that would not affect the trade deficit, right?
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