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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#111

Post by bilekas »

scotty79 wrote: post #78
bilekas wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Where it's gonna crash to? You know that the reason things bubble and burst is because speculation outpaces reality at too high a rate, ie : too much "capital" is make up of hopes and dreams. When reality hits and the numbers make sense, all that hope and dreams go pop. Scotty doesn't know!

There is no reality in the market. All prices are speculation, always. If there was any reality involved things like Tesla would crash 3 times already. My question is where the spekulants are going to escape to. I don't think it can be even dollar this time because in this crash dollar most likely will go away as the global currency and the inflation will be devastating.

Ahhhh hehe well there will always be something to speculate on! I don't really know but I know I'm happy I've been hoarding gold. My grandad always drilled it into my mind. Became a habbit over the years!

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#112

Post by FrancisMoodie »

benrutter wrote: post #87

I feel like one of the following is true (and I don't know yet which is the case): - I'm genuinely a lot more pessimistic than is accurate around what is and isn't a bubble - Bubbles are just slower to burst than I expect Possibly some combination of both. But even ignoring AI which is relatively new, it seems "obvious" to me, that whatever value Bitcoin has, investment in the asset is detached completely from that v…

Something I think people forget when it comes to the valuation of bitcoin is just how much of it is used to fund illegal activities (Betting, Drugs, anything on the darkweb,...). I honestly believe much of the valuation is linked to that, but I have no source or proof.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#113

Post by padjo »

Noaidi wrote: post #9

No one will ever get the timing right, but if you see the fundamental flaws of the economy, you know a crash is going to come. There were a lot of people who predicted the housing crash, not the timing but the crash. There are several signs that this is happening and the one no one is talking about is gold and silver prices. Don’t worry about the timing, you’ll never get the timing right, just worry about the fundame…

At any given moment there is always someone predicting that the economy will crash. So someone will always have predicted it. The question is do they actually have some insight or were they just lucky.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#114

Post by lm28469 »

newsclues wrote: post #103
lm28469 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> communist country New things need new words to describe them, I know people love to call bad guys "nazis" or "communists" and that everyone seems stuck with 1939 lingo but come one. 1950s china isn't 1980s china which isn't 2026 china, yet they're all ""communists""

No words are not required. Authoritarian. Totalitarian. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_fascism is an OLD term.

None of these are "communism"... people who don't know better use it as a "china bad" gotcha because it's about as far as their political education allows them to think but it really is way more complex than that.

> Authoritarian. Totalitarian.

Yes these apply, but they're not synonyms of communism. The Iranian government is authoritarian, totalitarian and absolutely not communist

> Red fascism is an OLD term.

But surely you see how dumb this sounds? Fascism is by definition a far right moment, communism is by definition far left moment. By definition fascism is opposed to communism... Of course if we start using literal American propagandists buzzwords ("red fascism") as a basis for modern political discussions we're not going to get anywhere...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#115

Post by padjo »

blargthorwars wrote: post #82
brador wrote: post #70

I keep seeing soon, sliding into, moving towards. USD Currency futures have already collapsed. World trade will move to (not a good idea) RMB or (mistakenly) crypto. Euro is the only real option left and it’s beautifully positioned in the center. Great leadership too.

[flagged]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Sweden

Not even the right order of magnitude

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#116

Post by TYPE_FASTER »

FrancisMoodie wrote: post #110
maxerickson wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Software productivity doubling would be a huge boon for the economy, not a drag. Of course it's very disruptive for people that lose their jobs, but many of them will get similar new jobs, and the overall impact is higher output.

If all companies fire 50% of their engineers, how will anybody find similar new jobs? In an ideal world software productivity doubling WOULD be a huge boon for the economy IF companies used the increased productivity of their engineers as a way to manage tech debt, R&D and other issues that were put in the backlog because historically there were no resources for this. In reality all companies look at increased produc…

The FAANG companies hoarded engineering talent for years. It was really difficult to hire in any market where they were located. What I think will happen/is happening is the combination of AI assisted development and reduction in FAANG engineering headcount will enable business transformation pretty much everywhere.

The impact of that transformation remains to be seen.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#117

Post by incomingpain »

Last 2 reported quarters have 3.8% and 4.4% gdp growth.

Next report is end of february. So it's minimum 4 months away at earliest.

Stock markets are at 10 year peaks.

Unemployment is a little bit high at 4.5%.

Inflation is a little bit high at 2.7%

US government debt is very high at 125%

PMIs are strong across the board.

Also in context, trillions in declared new investments in the usa. Probably trillions more in undeclared new investment trying to avoid tariffs.

No competitor possible on reserve currency status, Euro in about 2013 was looking like hot stuff but they regulated themselves out of it.

So I consider, the crash probability of the US economy is certainly not going to be happening.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#118

Post by piva00 »

Dirak wrote: post #66

[flagged]

> In Europe, people hold cash at negative interest rates because they have so few new ideas and so little innovation to invest in. Where exactly do you think the money will go?

That's a bit reductive, in Europe there's a much bigger culture of saving, most people I know here are very averse on taking debt if unnecessary, only going into debt for large purchases like a house or a car. Even for cars I see many outright purchasing a used one in cash instead of going into financing/leasing.

People hold cash but also invest, it's savings in general that are high, varying between 10-25% of yearly income saved (compared to the US's ~5%).

I think this narrative of "so little innovation" is peddled very much in the software-adjacent circles but it forgets that innovation is not only from software, if you really think Europe has no innovation you are either ignorant or purposefully fostering a bad narrative. No, Europe doesn't have the VC industry, and the software companies' culture of the USA, it does innovate with a different model.

> If you insist on believing the US economy will crash without a well thought out thesis, I think that’s a beautiful thing. When you sell your positions on US companies, I’ll gladly be on the BUY side of that order.

Please do, as I've been cashing out throughout this year anything that has any direct exposure to the USA stock market I need people like you on the other side, thank you very much.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#119

Post by PleasureBot »

FrancisMoodie wrote: post #110
maxerickson wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Software productivity doubling would be a huge boon for the economy, not a drag. Of course it's very disruptive for people that lose their jobs, but many of them will get similar new jobs, and the overall impact is higher output.

If all companies fire 50% of their engineers, how will anybody find similar new jobs? In an ideal world software productivity doubling WOULD be a huge boon for the economy IF companies used the increased productivity of their engineers as a way to manage tech debt, R&D and other issues that were put in the backlog because historically there were no resources for this. In reality all companies look at increased produc…

If software engineer productivity basically doubled as is being claimed in this thread, I think you'd see companies scrambling to lay off everyone else in an effort to hire even more software engineers. They'd be by far the most valuable and productive employees at every tech company and you'd be foolish not to have as many as you can. I'm being a bit facetious but throughout history when a resource or profession takes a dramatic leap in efficiency, the demand for that thing rather than decreasing as is predicted here, only increases since it has become far more valuable & effective.
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