Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

Post by actionfromafar » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 1:28 AM UTC

m000 wrote: post #233

datameta wrote: post #218

If Russia's economy is kept afloat after 4 years of full-scale war... Why would one year of Trump 2.0 do us in? Don't get me wrong, a whole lot of problematic actions have been taken in that time-frame but that pales in comparison to 1.25 million casualties and about the same number having left the country (and our population is almost triple theirs) on top of infrastructure destruction.

Entirely different cases. Russia never relied on the strong rouble for its economy to function. Or having unfettered access to most of the world's markets. So it had some know-how on weathering the storm. But OTOH, if Trump is erratic enough to trigger a world-wide de-dollarization trend, and close down markets that were traditionaly open (e.g. Europe), then US would be facing an unprecedented storm that would be muc…

Post by ulfw » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 1:32 AM UTC

leptons wrote: post #231

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

Trump famously bankrupted 3 casinos . The US economy will be the 4th.

Post by SllX » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 1:34 AM UTC

dyauspitr wrote: post #249

SllX wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Should the US become an unfriendly power to the rest of the western world, it will find the demand for its currency plummeting, which I don't want to outline is a big issue. Right now this is much more of a maybe, possibly, eventually, over a long enough time horizon. As of the end of 2025, USD still made up 57% of foreign reserves vs 20% for the Euro and 3% for the Chinese renminbi. Nearly all commodities are stil…

That number has been dropping by a percent every year for USD over the last 10 years. It used to be 65% USD in 2015

Post by generativenoise » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 1:35 AM UTC

pphysch wrote: post #240

torginus wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great website, not going to downplay the problem, but you can check out other countries, and see that a lot of places - particularly in the West - are f*cked. That China is too, is not much of an upside, Honestly its kinda shocking how bad things are going to get, and Im not sure what can be done if anything at this point.

China is probably the among the best countries in the world to handle so-called "demographic collapse". Elders are relatively healthy and multigenerational households more common. Leader in robotics. News flash: you don't need a billion hard-working peasants in 2026 to be productive.

Post by ulfw » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 1:43 AM UTC

bborud wrote: post #30

mschuster91 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China wants but China won't. They lack the military capability of force projection that is the basis of the US dollar dominance, their currency cannot be used as a reserve/trading currency due to capital transfer controls (that have no sign of ever going away because otherwise everyone who has money in China will move it immediately out of the reach of the CCP), foreign investors have gotten very skeptical over the y…

China doesn’t need to project force. Economics might is sufficient. Yes, they want Taiwan, but that’s a silly national pride thing. It would not really benefit them to take it by force.