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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#211

Post by estimator7292 »

teiferer wrote: post #37
SchwKatze wrote: post #8

I'm kinda new into economy crashes, was a kid in 2008, is there a way to protect of it?

Skill. Knowledge. At your age, your biggest assert is your future earnings potential. The more employable you are, the better you will make iduring and after a downturn. In fact, the highest skill folks tend to even profit from hiccups in the economy.

None of that is true. Not one word of this applies anymore. Being highly skilled means you're highly paid, which puts you first in line for cuts. Talent doesn't get you hired, networks do. "Future earning potential" is just nonsense words, you can't eat "future earning potential".

This advice is from half a century ago. The times have moved on.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#212

Post by thunky »

Noaidi wrote: post #9

No one will ever get the timing right, but if you see the fundamental flaws of the economy, you know a crash is going to come. There were a lot of people who predicted the housing crash, not the timing but the crash. There are several signs that this is happening and the one no one is talking about is gold and silver prices. Don’t worry about the timing, you’ll never get the timing right, just worry about the fundame…

> No one will ever get the timing right, but if you see the fundamental flaws of the economy, you know a crash is going to come.

If you know it's coming but don't know when then you don't know anything. Certainly not enough to bet on.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#213

Post by torginus »

ahartmetz wrote: post #197
torginus wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why people expect the Chinese economy to crash - they can basically make everything, a lot of which is internationally competitive, they can trade for the resources they don't have with the goods that they do - with basically the whole world dependent on them. They have a huge internal base of poor people, and lifting them to a middle class level will alone fuel domestic demand for years to come. T…

The Chinese economy is indisputably strong and real, but rumor has it that its reported growth numbers have been inflated in the last couple of years. And why wouldn't they be - there is an autocratic government whose justification is that what they are doing is increasing economic success. No success is not an option.

Personally I'm less and less inclined to believe in capitalism and money as a concept - we've long past moved the concept of money as universal barter, and into strange and speculative theories about how things ought to be valued, with the most valuable things either emerging from immediately unclear value propositions (impossibly valued companies, high-paid jobs that seemingly dont contribute to society) or artificially created shortages (housing, overpriced infrastructure projects due to government regulation and meddling).

If for example, BYD makes a car that's substantially similar between the China and Europe versions, and sells said car for $15k eqv RMB in China, but $30k in the EU, it makes double the revenue for the same 'value'. Even the argument of the EU being generally richer, and thus the car having higher monetary utility doesnt hold - a well-paid EU surgeon wont pay more for it than your average office worker.

So I feel money is increasingly a poor proxy for actual value/wealth etc.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#214

Post by baby_souffle »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #195
bayarearefugee wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 'this time it's different' I remember reading this a lot in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008 That said, overall I sort of agree with your assessment except for having any optimism that the US changes course. The current looming problems with the US economy are almost entirely unforced errors of the Trump administration (they could have done basically nothing and taken credit for the Biden soft landing and economic growth) b…

Still, he'll be gone one day and I am going to be all in on that day. It'll all be hockey-sticks from that moment on.

Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not.

Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#215

Post by [deleted] »

torginus wrote: post #97
singularity2001 wrote: post #63

Maybe simultaneous with the crash of the Chinese economy, which was predicted for 40 years now

I don't understand why people expect the Chinese economy to crash - they can basically make everything, a lot of which is internationally competitive, they can trade for the resources they don't have with the goods that they do - with basically the whole world dependent on them. They have a huge internal base of poor people, and lifting them to a middle class level will alone fuel domestic demand for years to come. T…

[deleted]

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#216

Post by Nevermark »

red-iron-pine wrote: post #194
trilogic wrote: post #58

What is different this time? Maybe: 1 Online shopping market in the range of 5 trillions 2 Electricity and energy price raise 3 Impossibility to lower interest rates 4 Tech market also in the range of multi Trillions 5 Global education and power expansion ... Meaning that a % of all this money flow goes private pockets destroying medium class, which gets poorer. It is like a memory leak that keeps sucking resources w…

you can couch it in tech metaphors but there is a clear path forward and it involves eating a certain class of people

Big problems are solved by years of investment and good decision making.

Unfortunately, going after causes or correcting symptom in any kind of hurry acts as a massive destabilizer at exactly the moment systemic destabilization provides the motive/momentum for taking action.

Hard course corrections at critical pressure, in a complex system, is a value destroying reset.

Companies can do this. Mass layoffs, capitalization sell off, etc. And then recover over time, because the rest of the economy around them is mores stable and the pain gets diluted. Entire countries doing this doesn't work out so well.

But it would appear, that may be the path we are most likely to take.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#217

Post by deadbabe »

SchwKatze wrote: post #8

I'm kinda new into economy crashes, was a kid in 2008, is there a way to protect of it?

Maximize income and cash flow, when things start to crash, you want to have fresh new money coming in to start buying undervalued oversold assets.

In the meantime, keep investing to avoid eroding the value of your money as the dollar drops in value. It also prepares you for the possibility the crash doesn’t occur for a very long time, long enough to grow your net worth substantially to be better insulated.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#218

Post by datameta »

If Russia's economy is kept afloat after 4 years of full-scale war... Why would one year of Trump 2.0 do us in? Don't get me wrong, a whole lot of problematic actions have been taken in that time-frame but that pales in comparison to 1.25 million casualties and about the same number having left the country (and our population is almost triple theirs) on top of infrastructure destruction.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#219

Post by Nevermark »

philipallstar wrote: post #10

> This is the 11th time that tariffs have happened, and it just isn’t surprising anymore. There are tariffs everywhere, all the time. Canada just dramatically cut its 90% (or something) tariff on Chinese cars. Tariffs haven't just started happening because someone you don't like did them.

Knife: Surgeon. Slasher.

Results are not the same.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#220

Post by tick_tock_tick »

benrutter wrote: post #183
robinsoncrusue wrote: post #171

The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in…

> The question is there is no other place for money to go. Whenever I've heard people speculate on the US bond market losing its footing, the suggestion isn't that "Japan will be the new US" (eg) - it's that investor will spread assets across multiple places (US, Japan, EU, etc) to hedge against risk, rather than just the US.

That's not an answer. Japan and the EU can't handle those flows so again there is no other place to go.
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