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Anthropic raises $13B Series F

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#451

Post by SchemaLoad »

powerapple wrote: post #354
llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

Also not all compute was necessary for the final model, a large chunk of it is trial and error research. In theory, for $1B you spent training the latest model, a competitor will be able to do it after 6 months with $100M.

Not only are the actual models rapidly devaluing, the hardware is too. Spend $1B on GPUs and next year there's a much better model out that's massively devalued your existing datacenter. These companies are building mountains of quicksand that they have to constantly pour more cash on else they be reduced to having no advantage rapidly.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#452

Post by SchemaLoad »

worldsayshi wrote: post #97
llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

And we're still sort of on the fence if it's even that useful? Like sure it saves me a bit of time here and there but will scaling up really solve the reliability issues that is the real bottleneck.

I feel like it's pretty settled that they are a little bit useful, as a faster search engine, or being able to automatically sort my emails. But the value is nowhere near justifying the investment.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#453

Post by xenobeb »

nikanj wrote: post #321
xpe wrote: post #222

Remember the YouTube acquisition? Many probably don’t since it was 2006. $1.65B. To many, it seemed bonkers. Narrow point: In general, one person’s impression of what is crazy does not fare well against market-generated information. Broader point: If you think you know more than the market, all other things equal, you’re probably wrong. Lesson: Only searching for reasons why you are right is a fishing expedition. If…

$183B makes sense because 20 years ago something else was valued at $1.65 billion and money has decreased in value 100-fold?

[flagged]

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#454

Post by Zigurd »

jjmarr wrote: post #440
xp84 wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't those cost like $400,000 a piece to outfit, though? I mean this with tremendous respect because I think they're the only ones doing it "right," I feel like Waymo is kind of 'bruteforcing' autonomous driving using money. There's an inherent limit to the impact of a technology (and thus its long-term value) based on its cost, and even stipulating that Waymo has solved it in general, I think a valuation should be…

Historically speaking there was an 80 year period in which transporting mined, natural, lake ice from the US Northeast/Norway around the world was economically competitive with ice machines depending on local market conditions. Machine ice became competitive in India and Australia in the 1850s, but it took until the start of World War 1 (1914) for artificial ice production to surpass natural in America. And the indus…

One of the most interesting statistics about Waymo is how few of them there are. The only service area with what you could call a large number of vehicles is the Bay Area. The news reports I've seen about it say under 1000 there and fewer than 3000 nationally. Uber's CEO was quoted as saying that a Waymo completes more rides than 99% of Uber drivers. It's a pity he didn't make a comparison against the median Uber driver. But it's plausible that a Waymo could replace 10 Uber drivers or more. That ratio flows through to revenue.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#455

Post by utyop22 »

fancyfredbot wrote: post #420
kittikitti wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are the same investors who got scammed by SBF who didn't even have a basic spreadsheet that explained the finances.

I see two of nineteen investors were also invested in FTX (Insight and Ontario teachers). With hindsight that's a bad investment although they probably recovered their money here so probably not their worst. Does this actually tell you they are stupid or insane? I think that's one possible interpretation but another is that these funds choose to allocate a controlled portion of their capital toward high risk investme…

They recovered their money but what about the opportunity cost? Its actually an economic loss. In retrospect given the risk it was a pretty terrible investment.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#456

Post by jedberg »

1oooqooq wrote: post #185
ankit219 wrote: post #41

Their projections for ARR at the end of this year at a high of $9B[1] at the end of this year. And reported gross margins of 60% (-30% with cloud providers partnerships). All things considered, if this pans out, it's a 20x multiple. High yes, but not that crazy. Specially considering their growth rate and that too at a decent margin at gm level. [1]: It was $3B at the end of May (so likely $250M in May alone), and $5…

exactly. what are people who make these investments even betting on? it certainly is not revenue or dividends. so it can only be a bet the stock will go up faster than other less risky stocks. and we continue to pretend that market generates any semblance of value.

> what are people who make these investments even betting on?

They they achieve AGI or a close approximation, and end up wealthier than god.

That's basically the bet here. Invest in OpenAI and Anthropic, and hope one of them reached near AGI.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#457

Post by xnx »

xenobeb wrote: post #449
yieldcrv wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Locally run video models that are just as good as today’s closed models are going to be the watershed moment The companies doing foundational video models have stakeholders that don’t want to be associated with what people really want to generate But they are pushing the space forward and the uncensored and unrestricted video model is coming

The problem is the video models are only impressive in news stories about the video models. When you actually try to use them you can see how the marketing is playing to people's imagination because they are such a massive disappointment.

Not my experience. Have you used Veo 3?

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#458

Post by utyop22 »

fidotron wrote: post #212
xpe wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t like to think of predicting the future as “a conclusion” of some assumptions. I don’t think it puts you in a frame of mind such that you’re genuinely curious.

> Remember the YouTube acquisition? To many, it seemed bonkers. Because of the legal uncertainty about what they were doing. There was no fundamental technological impediment. Here the technology simply doesn't exist and this is a giant bet that it can be magically created by throwing (a lot) more money at the existing idea. This is why it's "dumb money" because they don't seem to understand the dynamics of what they…

Yep people skip over the history re YT - the battles fought re. copyright and broadcasters and so on.

Sure it was overcome, but not because of YT or Google, but because of external forces causing those people fighting it to converge on hosting their content on the platform.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#460

Post by willhslade »

m101 wrote: post #372
jdoliner wrote: post #5

Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.

A joke for finance types I was told a while back: "what do you call a rouge trader that makes money?" "Managing director" If someone makes money on time, everything is forgiven. Money blinds us.

Rogue
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