alphabet is "worth" 2.45 trillion on the public market, is anthropic worth a bit less than 10% of google going forward? I don't think that's entirely unreasonable...
Alphabet 2024 revenue: 350 billions dollars Anthropic 2024 revenue: 1 billion dollars Unreasonable doesn’t even start to capture it. Anthropic being worth 10% of Alphabet is beyond insane.
How old was alphabet in 2024? And anthropic?
How much was google revenue in 2003? It was 1.5 billions (2.6 in today's USD)
Not saying the price is justified, but the comparison is not very fair.
>"Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses." Things working out in the end doesn't make what he did not a crime at the time. He was a common paper hanger, albeit with billions instead.
> Things working out in the end doesn't make what he did not a crime at the time Morally speaking, no. Practically speaking, it does. He would not have seen jail time.
Practically speaking I think everyone involved would've had a good incentive to brush it off behind closed doors and not rock the boat. Crypto is entirely based on vibes (there are very few - if any - legitimate applications) and rocking the boat would cause losses across the entire industry.
yeah, had CZ not made those tweets... He only had to weather another 2 months of the BTC bear market. BTC began to rebound in Jan 2023. Of course hindsight is 20-202
CZ was a minor factor. Someone internal leaked the balance sheet. Hindsight says, don't do fraud.
Fraud is only called fraud if you get caught and defraud the wrong people. Corporation-on-consumer fraud is generally OK and a lot of businesses we consider "legitimate" do it as standard practice. Fraud against investors and "the rich" can still be papered over and forgotten if everyone ends up richer in the end. SBF just got unlucky.
Impressive round but it seems unlikely this game can go on much longer before something implodes. Given the amount of cash you need to set of fire to stay relevant it’s becoming nearly impossible for all but a few players to stay competitive, but those players have yet to demonstrate a viable business model. With all these models converging, the big players aren’t demonstrating a real technical innovation moat. Every…
I'm not so confident in that yet. If you look at the inference prices Anthropic charges (on the API) it's not a race to the bottom - they are asking for what I feel is a lot of money - yet people keep paying that.
So many negative comments here! The fact that one of the top players in a new market segment with significant growth potential can raise $13B at a 20x revenue valuation is not the bubble indicator you think it is. It's at least possible that the investment pays off. These investors almost certainly aren't insane or stupid. We may still be in a bubble, but before you declare money doesn't mean anything any more and st…
> These investors almost certainly aren't insane or stupid.
I'm sure this exact sentence was said before every bubble burst.
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
The whole LLM era is horrible. All the innovation is coming "top-down" from very well funded companies - many of them tech incumbents, so you know the monetization is going to be awful. Since the models are expensive to run it's all subscription priced and has to run in the cloud where the user has no control. The hype is insane, and so usage is being pushed by C-suite folks who have no idea whether it's actually ben…
Nevertheless, prices for LLM at any given level of performance have gone down precipitously over the past few years. Regardless of how bad it seems the decisions being made are, the decision making process both is making an extreme amount of money for those in the AI companies, and providing extremely cheap and high quality intelligence for those using their offerings.
So many negative comments here! The fact that one of the top players in a new market segment with significant growth potential can raise $13B at a 20x revenue valuation is not the bubble indicator you think it is. It's at least possible that the investment pays off. These investors almost certainly aren't insane or stupid. We may still be in a bubble, but before you declare money doesn't mean anything any more and st…
These are the same investors who got scammed by SBF who didn't even have a basic spreadsheet that explained the finances.
> Headline: OpenAI raises 400 Trillion, proclaims dominion over the delta quadrant
> Top comment: This just proves that it's a bubble. No AI company has been profitable, we're in the era of diminishing returns. I don't know one real use case for AI
It's hilarious how routinely bearish this site is about AI. I guess it makes sense given how much AI devalues siloed tech expertise.
The whole LLM era is horrible. All the innovation is coming "top-down" from very well funded companies - many of them tech incumbents, so you know the monetization is going to be awful. Since the models are expensive to run it's all subscription priced and has to run in the cloud where the user has no control. The hype is insane, and so usage is being pushed by C-suite folks who have no idea whether it's actually ben…
Nevertheless, prices for LLM at any given level of performance have gone down precipitously over the past few years. Regardless of how bad it seems the decisions being made are, the decision making process both is making an extreme amount of money for those in the AI companies, and providing extremely cheap and high quality intelligence for those using their offerings.
Remember when you could get an Uber ride all the way across town for $5? It is way too early to know what prices for these services will actually cost.