371–380 of 661 posts
I think one key question is can Anthropic replicate this on some other segment. Like with people working with financials.
Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.
"what do you call a rouge trader that makes money?"
"Managing director"
If someone makes money on time, everything is forgiven. Money blinds us.
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
One more unimpressive release of ChatGPT or Claude, another 2 Billion spent by Zuckerberg on subpar AI offers, and the final realization by CNBC that all of AI right now...Is just code generators, will do it.
You will have ghost data centers in excess like you have ghost cities in China.
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This is very pessimistic take. Where else do you think the innovation would come from? Take cloud for example - where did the innovation come from? It was from the top. I have no idea how you came to the conclusion that this implies monetization is going to be awful. How do you know models are expensive to run? They have gone down in price repeatedly in the last 2 years. Why do you assume it has to run in the cloud w…
> Take cloud for example - where did the innovation come from? It was from the top. Definitely not. That came years later but in the late 2000s to mid-2010s it was often engineers pushing for cloud services over the executives’ preferred in-house services because it turned a bunch of helpdesk tickets and weeks to months of delays into an AWS API call. Pretty soon CTOs were backing it because those teams shipped faste…
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
The whole LLM era is horrible. All the innovation is coming "top-down" from very well funded companies - many of them tech incumbents, so you know the monetization is going to be awful. Since the models are expensive to run it's all subscription priced and has to run in the cloud where the user has no control. The hype is insane, and so usage is being pushed by C-suite folks who have no idea whether it's actually ben…
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At heart, not really. The whole point of all of this is to motivate humans to get off their butt and reduce entropy.
A painting on a wall is merely an inanimate object. A company has agency; it seeks to add economic value to itself over time including changing people’s perceptions. I don’t see how your comments have any bearing to the point I was making. What am I missing?
Whatever it is, the signal it's sending of Anthropic insiders is negative for AI investors.
Other comments having read a few hundred comments here:
- there is so much confusion, uncertainty, and fanciful thinking that it reminds me of the other bubbles that existed when people had to stretch their imaginations to justify valuations
- there is increasing spend on training models, and decreasing improvements in new models. This does not bode well
- wealth is an extremely difficult thing to define. It's defined vaguely through things like cooperation and trade. Ultimately these llms actually do need to create "wealth" to justify the massive investments made. If they don't do this fast this house of cards is going to fall, fast.
- having worked in finance and spoken to finance types for a long time: they are not geniuses. They are far from it. Most people went into finance because of an interest in money. Just because these people have $13bn of other people's money at their disposal doesn't mean they are any smarter than people orders of magnitude poorer. Don't assume they know what they are doing.
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We do seem to be hitting the top of the curve of diminishing returns. Forget AGI - they need a performance breakthrough in order to stop shoveling money into this cash furnace.
According to Dario, each model line has generally been profitable: i.e. $200MM to train a model that makes $1B in profit over its lifetime. But, since each model has been more and more expensive to train, they keep needing to raise more money to train the next generation of model, and the company balance sheet looks negative: i.e. they spent more this year than last (since the training cost for model N+1 is higher),…
He says "You paid $100 million and then it made $200 million of revenue. There's some cost to inference with the model, but let's just assume in this cartoonish cartoon example that even if you add those two up, you're kind of in a good state. So, if every model was a company, the model is actually, in this example is actually profitable. What's going on is that at the same time"
notice those are hypothetical numbers and he just asks you to assume that inference is (sufficiently) profitable.
He doesn't actually say they made money by the EoL of some model.
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That assumes he would have stopped with the shenanigans, which is a pretty big if.
Proudly proclaiming on the Conversations With Tyler podcast that given a double or nothing bet with a 51% chance of success he'd keep playing forever.
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…