Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

repubblica.it

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

431–440 of 480 posts

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#431

Post by gourabmi »

spookthesunset wrote: post #299
gourabmi wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only optimism could kill viruses.

Humans are wired for doomsday scenarios. Our brains love to imagine the worst case scenarios.... probably how we survived as a species for so long. Our brains have not evolved to deal with 24/7 media coupled with social media, HN, Reddit, YouTube and every other information source feeding us a nonstop stream of raw unfiltered data. Dunno where I’m going with this but our brains latch onto stuff like this and run wild…

Perhaps this is a side effect of subscribing to unhealthy number of true crime podcasts and listening to police radio.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#432

Post by mantap »

atomi wrote: post #208
mantap wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a white lie by the media. If they told the truth to the public then they fear it would deprive hospitals of masks and cause worse outcomes for society.

They're obviously not useless. They do keep spittle down. But every person in public would have to wear them in the off chance they're asymptomatic carriers. And a virus will still penetrate most masks through the sides where air is mainly being pulled in from. So there is more nuance than just "masks are useless" I guess you can wear them. But given the choice I'd rather have immunity. And I think we should focus mo…

Masks decrease R0. You don't need everybody to wear them. You just need enough people to wear them for R0 to fall below 1, combined with all the other measures. It's academic because there aren't enough masks but it's a lesson to learn for a future epidemic. Also it's high time that mask wearing becomes culturally normalised in the West as it is in east Asia.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#433

Post by lazzlazzlazz »

grey-area wrote: post #80
lazzlazzlazz wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any chance you could link to those models? I searched around and couldn't find them.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing…

Excellent. Thank you.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#434

Post by cmod »

warabe wrote: post #237

I live in Japan and I experience mild symptoms since last Wednesday but not sure if my symptom is due to Covid-19. In Japan, You have meet two conditions to take a CPR test. 1. the symptoms with fever of 37.5 degrees or more continue for 4 days or more (for the eldery and those with underlying disease, "4 days" becomes "2 days") 2. you have strong laxity (malaise) or breathlessness (dyspnea), or you have underlying d…

I suspect the reason for fewer tests is, as many have pointed out, because of a lack of tests rather than overt political malfeasance. Note: Yesterday they performed 3.4k tests,[0] which is aprox 30% of the total tests to date in a single day. Tests are ramping up as supplies come online.

[0] https://covid19japan.com/

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#435

Post by mycall »

Amarok wrote: post #412
michaelyoshika wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't know why this is downvoted. Doctors can't treat the virus but only the symptoms, even for the flu. From a public health perspective, if you have any symptoms, be it covid-19 or flu, just isolate yourself for the health of others.

It's downvoted because it's dangerous and uninformed medical advice. You can treat flu (influenza) with osetalmivir. People with mild symptoms can still be at risk, further testing is needed [1] Please just phone your emergency line if you suspect you may have it. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22610265

Would not the influenza vaccine be better than using osetalmivir?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#436

Post by tim333 »

nodamage wrote: post #382
surfsvammel wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a more reasonable explanation why they are not testing you. Simply because they wouldn’t do anything with that information anyway. If the test is positive they’ll send you home to quarantine telling you to call back if your fever worsens. If the test would show negative, they’d tell you, guess what; “please call back if your fever worsens, and stay in quarantine anyway”. So the information doesn’t re…

> Unless you are in a risk group, the test doesn’t really make a difference. If the test is positive, you can self-quarantine and notify everyone you've been in contact with that they need testing . Then any one of those people that tests positive can do the same thing, etc. etc. If you don't do any testing, you end up with a bunch of positive but asymptomatic carriers wandering around unknowingly infecting other peo…

Indeed and it probably makes much of the difference why active cases in Korea have kind of leveled off while in Europe they are growing about 25%/day. And just a reminder that's 800x a month.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#437

Post by jamesrcole »

jtbayly wrote: post #388
12elephant wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What no one is talking about is how much social distancing/isolation is needed to avoid hospital saturation. I ran the numbers for Canada, and it looks like we'd need isolation measures for 2+ years. I don't see how that's a feasible solution long-term.

I'd like to see more discussion around this point. I don't care where you got the numbers from. It's been clear from a glance that 3 weeks of cancelled school isn't going to do anything. So now we're looking at 8 weeks. Umm.... According to what? Which is more likely, 8 weeks or 2 years? I don't know, but I'm guessing 8 weeks isn't nearly long enough.

Around 18 months (until sufficient quantities of vaccine) is this group of experts’ estimate

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#438

Post by jamesrcole »

12elephant wrote: post #293
dragonwriter wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah,and the high hospitalization and ICU rates become high case fatality rates once medical infrastructure is saturated, as well as increasing the case fatality rate for every other condition that creates a critical need for inpatient care. That's where Italy definitely is, and where it seems Iran is evn moreso (though they are less public about it.)

What no one is talking about is how much social distancing/isolation is needed to avoid hospital saturation. I ran the numbers for Canada, and it looks like we'd need isolation measures for 2+ years. I don't see how that's a feasible solution long-term.

Around 18 months (until sufficient quantities of vaccine) is this group of experts’ estimate

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#439

Post by jamesrcole »

nicoburns wrote: post #387
12elephant wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What no one is talking about is how much social distancing/isolation is needed to avoid hospital saturation. I ran the numbers for Canada, and it looks like we'd need isolation measures for 2+ years. I don't see how that's a feasible solution long-term.

The numbers I ran for the UK put it at 12 years: No. People in UK: ~66,000,000 Est. proportion of people who will get sick: 80% Est. proportion of sick people who require intensive care: 5% (in Italy it's 10%) So that's 60,000,000 0.8 0.05 = 2,640,000 Number of ICU beds in the UK: ~4100 (90% occupied, but let's ignore that for now) Length of time ICU required: at least 1 week (probably longer, but let's ignore that t…

Around 18 months (until sufficient quantities of vaccine) is this group of experts’ estimate

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#440

Post by jamesrcole »

Engineering-MD wrote: post #428
nicoburns wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The numbers I ran for the UK put it at 12 years: No. People in UK: ~66,000,000 Est. proportion of people who will get sick: 80% Est. proportion of sick people who require intensive care: 5% (in Italy it's 10%) So that's 60,000,000 0.8 0.05 = 2,640,000 Number of ICU beds in the UK: ~4100 (90% occupied, but let's ignore that for now) Length of time ICU required: at least 1 week (probably longer, but let's ignore that t…

I did a similar calculation but came back more optimistically (although still on scale of a year to two). You only need count over 18s as very few cases in this group. It is believed by the UK experts to have a lower fatality rate of 1% and likely lower admission rate due to asymptomatic infections (estimates at 16-75%). Ventilator capacity can increase with stopping surgery and CPAP/other measures can be used in som…

Around 18 months (until sufficient quantities of vaccine) is this group of experts’ estimate

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

Post reply on HN