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Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

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Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#431

Post by huy-nguyen »

na85 wrote: post #242
pbourke wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Alaska cruise season will likely not happen this year. The Canadian government has banned cruise ships from Canadian ports until 1 July. Legally, the foreign-flagged ships of major cruise lines must call at a foreign port between calls at US ports. All Alaska cruises call at Vancouver on their way from Seattle to Alaska. https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/canada-suspends-cr...

Maybe they'll sail under the US flag?

Relevant video. https://youtu.be/m3yyA12PAy0

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#432

Post by CydeWeys »

yostrovs wrote: post #381
bosswipe wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is when everybody takes a hit except the "too big to fail" banks. That's what happened in the last financial crisis, the government bailed out only the big banks by buying their toxic loans at face value. When Obama tried to also bail out individual homeowners it sparked the Tea Party backlash and he pretty much backed off on those plans.

You're twisting history. The tea party backlash was to the bailing out of banks.

Their main issue was being pro-austerity. Most of what they focused on was cutting funding for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other social services. They wanted a smaller government at all costs (though curiously they never called for reducing military spending).

Occupy Wall Street, on the other hand, was the group that was specifically against bailing out the banks. The Tea Party was more about not helping regular people.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#433

Post by yourapostasy »

joshstrange wrote: post #268
listenallyall wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's not the same set, and it's not limited. Employees have different shifts, days off, vacation, callouts, etc. They all still go home after work and interact with their family. And the working conditions essentially guarantee that if one person is carrying the virus, everyone in the kitchen will get it, which is certainly not true in front-of-house. This is a government policy that essentially tells low-paid li…

I agree, if you have never worked in the service industry for long or don't think this is a problem I urge you read through this thread: https://twitter.com/nomedabarbarian/status/12329226617406136... I won't be touching delivery food or fast food (or going to any restaurants) until this is over. I feel terrible for the workers in these industries and I hope we pass some kind of mortgage/rent pause and relief to peop…

We need more than mortgage and rent suspension and relief. IRS has aggregate quarterly-granular data on how much businesses in a NAICS/SIC classification has paid out in wages. But not specifically who; the accountants, payroll processors and business owners who DIY payroll have that information.

We need a simultaneous approach. IRS creates a modified 941 form. Every business who files either 941 or 944 fills out new form. It has enough information to link it already-filed 941/944. And fields for list of employees, and where their pay is usually sent.

Direct helicopter drop fiscal stimulus to employers and employees. Employers in specific NAICS/SIC coded industries closed by law get wages they would normally pay taken care of as a straight grant. Direct deposit wages to employees directed by employees, cash at SSA or similar FedGov office parking lot drive thrus for the unbanked. Statistical modeling to roughly make up tip wages. Link to landlord-submitted data or statistical data is used to model and impute an additional grant package to cover a business’ rough revenue figure. Utilities-submitted data is used to estimate a third grant package. Wages, rent and skeleton utilities are granted month by month, retroactively if necessary to stricken industries. Healthcare is emergency Medicare-for-all for impacted employees. Any remaining revenue funds required are through unsecured loans at Fed funds rate.

This gives us a chance to resume our economic footing faster to status ante quo than letting businesses go under and wait a decade for the economy and equities market to recover.

Link quarantine peer pressure to grants. Each time someone from the business steps out of quarantine orders and is caught by LEO, their grant is reduced by 30%, and everyone else in their workplace has theirs reduced by a proportion (1 / total-employees&owners), with a message saying who stepped out.

Should do similar for industries deemed strategically critical and employees must come in. Sanitation, defense, energy, emergency response, transport and delivery, etc.

Take the currency hit on this grant tsunami, and hope for a rocket ride back up starting in a couple years when the vaccine is out to make up the monetary weakness.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#434

Post by CydeWeys »

diebeforei485 wrote: post #365
na85 wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe they'll sail under the US flag?

Then they'd have to pay U.S. wages and working conditions. Avoiding that is the whole reason they are foreign flagged.

More generally, just US laws period. That affects a lot more than just worker compensation and conditions.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#435

Post by grumple »

mc3 wrote: post #127
cavisne wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such a bailout is feasible. During the financial crisis houses were physically built and purchased without enough people with the income to cover the loan. The difference here is that there is no underlying financial issue. People will still want to go to restaurants and bars after this is over, and it will end.

What about solvency, and the knock on effect to creditors. They can't pay the booze supplier and they go out of business etc. This could go on for months. Most businesses don't make those sweet SaaS margins. Same for airlines.

This is why the money has to go to the bottom so it can bubble up. All debts get paid off along the way. Government bails out the small business, the small business pays the distributor, they pay their creditor, etc. Investors still make money at the top.

If bubble up economics becomes a thing I want full credit.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#436

Post by anewguy9000 »

dillondoyle wrote: post #343
topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

I hate myself for saying this but if one wants a cold calculous thought experiment, what about thinking about the mortality age? mostly older people, not only don't work but are also often a net burden to society.

its a hard but fair and valid moral question

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#437

Post by generalpass »

dang wrote: post #414

All: the debate about economic effects vs. health effects is turning nasty in places and could get a lot worse. Let's not go there. Please find ways to make your substantive points that don't nudge HN threads in that direction. If you comment, make sure you're up to date the site guidelines. Note this one: " Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier…

I just upvoted Dang. These, indeed, are troubled times.

;-)

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#438

Post by cmendel »

saiya-jin wrote: post #386
m0zg wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that "millions will die" is just pure panic. But I'd like to point out that China is most definitely _not_ out of the woods yet. And won't be until there's a cure. This merry-go-round could start again there at a moment's notice.

I don't get this sentiment, I mean numbers are pretty clear at this point. We have +-2% mortality rate, and that when system is not utterly overloaded and those critical patients (15-20%) are getting artificial ventilation and very personalized treatment. Without it, most if not all would die. So real mortality, once health systems will crumble from the load (we will see in 1 week here in Europe), might be more aroun…

Sure, though that number that you have memorized for the world population is wrong. We're at approx 7.8 billion rather than 4 billion.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#439

Post by IgorPartola »

murraybhenson wrote: post #370
briandear wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bob’s Drywall Supply has net 60 for a delivery of drywall. Constructor Bill now can’t pay. Bob’s Drywall is a creditor and is on the hook for a product he already shipped. Now Bob’s Drywall Supply can’t pay the company that provided him with Net 90 terms. So Bob and Bill are now insolvent. And they fire their employees. Suggesting that creditors somehow deserve “pain,” is just cruel. Creditors don’t “inflict pain” on…

The company, Construction Materials Inc, that supplied Bob's Drywall Supply should accept a delay in payment. In order to ensure payment comes as quickly as possible, an order block (no new orders are accepted from Bob's) or a shipping block (orders are accepted but not shipped) or both are placed on Bob's account. Now, of course, what of Construction Materials, Inc? Surely they buy the raw materials from someone and…

At some point it hits Joe the employee and he can’t wait 6 months to get paid because he lives paycheck to paycheck and will starve by then. Overall you are right until it comes to individuals. A dry wall supplier can close its doors for six months and their products will t go bad. Joe the employee can’t just not eat for six months. If we do this systematically we would arrive at UBI. We would also need to delay all tax collection and so forth.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#440

Post by AlgorithmicTime »

llampx wrote: post #398
dillondoyle wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate myself for saying this but if one wants a cold calculous thought experiment, what about thinking about the mortality age? mostly older people, not only don't work but are also often a net burden to society.

Yes we've already extracted all the value we could extract from them. Better get rid of the useless husks asap. Do you realize how that sounds?

Of course he realizes how that sounds, that's why he prepended "I hate myself for saying this" rather than just saying the cold facts un-prepended.
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