Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming • Hacker News Board

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#431

Post by sliken » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 8:10 AM UTC

irrational wrote: post #273

mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

A friend had one in college, turns out a 8 year old pick up truck was dramatically cheaper to insure and repair than a similar sedan. Seems like just about everything about the truck was designed to be rugged and reliable. The engine was tuned for less HP, the interior was less attractive, the suspension was less comfortable.

It wasn't fun to drive and was loud on the highway, but it was cheap.

I think there was a break on registration as well.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#432

Post by Havoc » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 8:12 AM UTC

graycat wrote: post #407

Havoc wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Different priorities for different people I guess. And also very much dependent on profession & lifestyle. Couple of the points you raised though I thought that's the exact opposite of what I want. Crumple zones - I want that. My life matters more to me than repair cost. And it's missing a second reason for soft exteriors - pedestrian safety. Deers aren't the only thing getting hit. Suspension, brakes etc designed to…

I was just listing some of the advantages I and maybe others see in, say, the Ford and Chevy versions of pickup trucks. So, there are some advantages in utility; the attractions are not all just style and fashion. Yes, there are disadvantages. Welcome to the ubiquitous problem of engineering design trade offs. I've recently moved from NY to TN -- yup, the fraction of pickup trucks is higher in TN!!! I'm liking TN a L…

Good points - esp on the axle. Didn't realise that's what solid axle meant.

> So, a vehicle that weights twice as much has twice the friction when the brakes are locked

At full lock (or near) the limit factor is likely tire/road. A bit of googling suggests the effect is give or take 10-20% [0]

Regarding bumpers - the plastic used is flexible exactly because of "the audio method" of parking. It bounces right back in most cases. Frankly I just don't see how a chrome finish bumper is going to work out cheaper than plastic.

Maybe if I spend some time living in the US I'd understand. To me the trade-offs, especially on safety seem less than ideal.

[0] https://www.arrivealive.mobi/stopping-sight-and-driver-react...

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#433

Post by sliken » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 8:13 AM UTC

irrational wrote: post #325

ChuckMcM wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect part of the reason is utility vs cost of ownership. You can commute in a pickup but you can't move an apartment in a Prius (well not in one trip :-). If you look at the marginal cost of a second vehicle[1] it is quite high. Thus you may be limited to owning exactly one vehicle, and that vehicle is going to consume a chunk of your income (insurance/gas/maintenance). In that scenario the most financially prude…

But, it's like $50 or less a day to rent a huge uhaul truck. And an SUV can easily haul a boat or other toys, plus keep gear covered and provide seating for more people. If you really need to haul something that wont fit in the back of the suv, you can always rent a uhaul trailer for about $20/day. Heck, you can rent a large flat bed truck from home depot for about $20 for a few hours that can probably haul more than…

The customer of a pick up truck is typically much more cost conscious than a SUV. The reason car companies push people towards SUVs is the profit margins are MUCH higher.

Generally you get MUCH more for your money with a pick up truck over a SUV.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#434

Post by OnlineGladiator » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 9:49 AM UTC

sliken wrote: post #427

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not arguing that an ICE vehicle is more efficient than an electric vehicle - I am saying that adding weight reduces efficiency for both. I was not making a general comparison between the pros and cons of electric vehicles, I was pointing out that one person's comment about better traction for electric vehicles was incredibly disingenuous because ICE vehicles can get the same benefit by simply adding weight - and…

Good weight distribution in ICE cars is pretty exotic. Only fairly performance optimized ICE cars like a Porsche Cayman, BMW m3, and similar performance oriented cars get the ideal 50/50 distribution. Changing that weight distribution is very expensive from a R&D perspective. Sometimes the battery is moved, or the engine is moved a few inches relative to the front axle. This is one of the reasons performance oriented…

I have already specifically mentioned that I am not talking about center of gravity or handling characteristics you'd find in a sports car. I have already written multiple comments about how you can put weight in a truck to add traction to the rear tires. I have already explained that electric vehicles are heavier but more efficient than ICE vehicles. You basically say similar things to what I said, and then come to the 100% wrong conclusion.

> So basically weight distribution is easy to tweak with batteries

No. You can do this when designing the car, but not afterwards. You want more weight in the regular pickup truck? Throw it in the back. You want less? Take it out. You can't take the batteries out of the electric vehicle. All my original comment said was you can add weight to the back of a pickup truck to improve traction on the rear axle. I didn't talk about center of gravity, or performance vehicles, or even mention that electric vehicles are heavier.

I am astounded by the amount of comments taking something I said, responding to it maybe tangentially and then concluding with "well that's why electric vehicles are better!" Let's just agree to disagree.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#435

Post by OnlineGladiator » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 10:02 AM UTC

sliken wrote: post #429

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a controversial statement to say electric vehicles are heavier than gasoline vehicles. Typically an electric vehicle will weigh about 1/3 more than a competing ICE vehicle. Just look at curb weights for vehicles if you don't believe me.

1/3 sounds crazy high. Most would consider the Tesla Model 3 a luxury car. The BMW 3 series and Telsa model 3 are positioned similarly. Both are $40k-$80k, optionally AWD, sold as performance luxury sedans in a range of different performances. If you want to pick two particular models I'd say the model 3 AWD and the BMW 330i xdrive are very similar. The BMW weights 3,763 pounds, so the Model 3P weight 4,072, which is…

I just looked at some numbers and you're right, it does seem like I exaggerated. If you choose the lower weight range for the 3 series though the difference ends up being 14% heavier, and obviously you can choose difference cars to compare. But you are right, 1/3 seems too high. Maybe half that would be more accurate.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#436

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 10:54 AM UTC

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #435

sliken wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1/3 sounds crazy high. Most would consider the Tesla Model 3 a luxury car. The BMW 3 series and Telsa model 3 are positioned similarly. Both are $40k-$80k, optionally AWD, sold as performance luxury sedans in a range of different performances. If you want to pick two particular models I'd say the model 3 AWD and the BMW 330i xdrive are very similar. The BMW weights 3,763 pounds, so the Model 3P weight 4,072, which is…

I just looked at some numbers and you're right, it does seem like I exaggerated. If you choose the lower weight range for the 3 series though the difference ends up being 14% heavier, and obviously you can choose difference cars to compare. But you are right, 1/3 seems too high. Maybe half that would be more accurate.

[deleted]

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#437

Post by sliken » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 11:04 AM UTC

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #435

sliken wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1/3 sounds crazy high. Most would consider the Tesla Model 3 a luxury car. The BMW 3 series and Telsa model 3 are positioned similarly. Both are $40k-$80k, optionally AWD, sold as performance luxury sedans in a range of different performances. If you want to pick two particular models I'd say the model 3 AWD and the BMW 330i xdrive are very similar. The BMW weights 3,763 pounds, so the Model 3P weight 4,072, which is…

I just looked at some numbers and you're right, it does seem like I exaggerated. If you choose the lower weight range for the 3 series though the difference ends up being 14% heavier, and obviously you can choose difference cars to compare. But you are right, 1/3 seems too high. Maybe half that would be more accurate.

I looked at the lighter weight BMW model 3 series. They were either smaller engines (not fair since the model 3 AWD is already faster), or RWD (again not fair to compare to an AWD electric).

Seems like 8% is about right to me.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#438

Post by ryanmercer » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 11:33 AM UTC

WorldMaker wrote: post #327

ryanmercer wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>EVs have been in existance for almost a decade and now EVs have been in existence for nearly as long as ICE vehicles have. The 1867 World Exposition had an electric cycle and you had electric taxis in London in 1897 [1] and by 1912 there were 33,842 electric cars registered in the United States [2]. In the 50's you had Deutsche Post of the GDR using electric delivery vans (I believe an electric vehicle was being use…

> - They're far more expensive than ICE vehicles as there aren't a whole lot of used EVs but there are tons of used ICE vehicles at vary price levels. For now. That's a combination of efficiencies of scale problems. VW Group says that they'll hit the efficiency of scale where EVs are cheaper across the board for every make and model to produce than ICE vehicles sometime between now and 2023 (that's less than four yea…

>You think it would be hard to schedule a 30-45 minute meal somewhere once every two weeks?

Uh, not everyone can afford to go out to eat once every two weeks just to charge their car. Another HN myopic view "I make a lot of money, everyone must make a lot of money".

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#439

Post by cmrdporcupine » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 12:06 PM UTC

appleiigs wrote: post #413

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, an existing pipeline. It was originally built to move oil east decades ago. Then it was reversed because oil coming from the other direction was more economical. Then they reversed it back recently. My overall point is that almost every Albertan I've spoken to doesn't even know about Line 9, and politicians and media there keep repeating points about Quebec and Saudi Oil and Saudi tankers, and being denied acce…

What does it matter if it's existing or not. The pipe helps Canada reduce spending money elsewhere. It helps the environment vs trucks, rail and tankers. A new pipe will help further, whether you think 25% imports is still high or not (it is still high, see next paragraph). You've already shown the benefits of adjusting Line 9. Oil prices are not high. Today WTI is at $54 and Alberta oil (which is also Canada's oil)…

What? I never said oil prices are high. You just didn't read. I said _when_ oil prices are high, central Canada's manufacturing industry suffers.

Stop throwing insults around and read.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#440

Post by pjc50 » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 1:12 PM UTC

mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Do you have projections that include the temperature rise as a result of this?