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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#421

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

sigmar wrote: post #324
panarky wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

>I can only hope the doomer narrative dominates until I can get a few shares at a reasonable valuation. I conjecture that some amount of the "doomer posting" is a consequence of other people realizing what you realized here and attempting to sway public sentiment for personal gain.

I doomer post because I see three basic possibilities:

* It's a bubble, it crashes (no moat etc.)

* It's not a bubble, we get superintelligence, it's not nice, it squishes us all like bugs

* It's not a bubble, we get superintelligence, it's nice, we all get UBI

From the perspective of your personal financial security, the range of scenarios where you want to invest in Anthropic seems rather narrow. And I don't like to fund the creation of something which might squish me like a bug.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#422

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

nostrademons wrote: post #164
reacharavindh wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As unlikely it is to happen at scale, as a thought process - what would happen if people start selling those index funds in a mad rush? Just drives the transaction volume because those with that new money will just buy something else in the market? I know SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will probably be a drop in the bucket in terms of scale of these funds, (free float % etc). But, is it realistic to take the money out…

If people actually dumped index funds for cash en masse it would be catastrophic. To attach some numbers, MSFT averages about 35M shares in daily volume, and that includes all the market makers, HFTs, etc. BlackRock (iShares) owns 593M shares of MSFT and Vanguard owns another 482M. Together, the amount of shares that index funds own is about a month and a half of total trading volumes. I'd bet that such a crash would…

Yeah I think it's more realistic to reallocate to ETFs which skip the frothy stuff. I wrote a comment about this in the other thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48367563

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#423

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

acdha wrote: post #228
latentframe wrote: post #210

AI may be the first major technology cycle where access to capital and power and physical infrastructure matters almost as much as the software itself

Railroads seem like a good parallel: right of way, coal, and iron all were huge factors for success. That was greater CAPEX but the parallel does break down somewhat since railroads had huge, immediate demand and everything but fuel had much longer service lives.

>railroads had huge, immediate demand

Wikipedia states most capital in the late 1800s railroad bubble in the USA was "involved in projects offering no immediate or early returns" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#424

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

throwaw12 wrote: post #125

I know market will buy it, but where would it find the money to fund the stock purchase? Would it crash other company stocks so that investors start selling and purchasing Anthropic shares, or how does it work?

Presumably, current Anthropic shareholders will buy buying other company stocks to diversify.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#425

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

sschueller wrote: post #45

Where will it be listed? I am considering selling all my index ETFs in those markets until the this blows over.

Historically speaking, this looks like a fantastic time to sell stocks. Here's the Shiller P/E line graph:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Valuations are literally at 1999 levels, and that's before the coming IPOs. No wonder they chose this moment to IPO.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#426

Post by kasey_junk »

derwiki wrote: post #345
ai_fry_ur_brain wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to everyones 50 year old mother who doesnt even know how to login to their account, let alone modify their allocations.

50 isn’t old? I would expect a 50 year old mother to be competent.

I learned computers and investing from my mother. She’s pretty competent approaching 80.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#427

Post by kasey_junk »

ai_fry_ur_brain wrote: post #290
EugeneG wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of this... During Apple's 1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO), Massachusetts regulators banned residents from purchasing the stock. The state's securities regulators deemed the offering "too risky" and "over-valued," enforcing a state rule that prohibited IPOs with a price exceeding 25 times earnings.

Well we are far more corrupt and in the last stages of late stage capitalism. 15 day waiting period for Nasdaq 100. Your 401k is now the exit liquidty for the country's 5k richest people. I really dont see how America doesnt collapse on the weight of its own corruption. But maybe the was the plan all along....

Just to put some numbers on it, under current rules and valuations, if all 3 of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic were to go public with their current valuations and be part of the nasdaq 100, and you were 100% allocated to that, you’d have ~8% portfolio exposure to them. I suspect if you are the type of person who is 100% allocated to QQQ I’d guess you’d want _more_ exposure to those symbols than that.

For someone holding VTI its closer to 3% and a 2050 fund its more like 1.5%. Indexing is how most people are investing in their retirement accounts because controversies like these just don’t matter much. Hedging this off is going to cost more than its worth.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#428

Post by [deleted] »

ai_fry_ur_brain wrote: post #290
EugeneG wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of this... During Apple's 1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO), Massachusetts regulators banned residents from purchasing the stock. The state's securities regulators deemed the offering "too risky" and "over-valued," enforcing a state rule that prohibited IPOs with a price exceeding 25 times earnings.

Well we are far more corrupt and in the last stages of late stage capitalism. 15 day waiting period for Nasdaq 100. Your 401k is now the exit liquidty for the country's 5k richest people. I really dont see how America doesnt collapse on the weight of its own corruption. But maybe the was the plan all along....

[deleted]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#429

Post by acdha »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #423
acdha wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Railroads seem like a good parallel: right of way, coal, and iron all were huge factors for success. That was greater CAPEX but the parallel does break down somewhat since railroads had huge, immediate demand and everything but fuel had much longer service lives.

>railroads had huge, immediate demand Wikipedia states most capital in the late 1800s railroad bubble in the USA was "involved in projects offering no immediate or early returns" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873

That’s a specific bubble half a century into railroads transforming the American economy. While there were plenty of bad investments, that’s because so much of the economy depended on railroads to move goods and people.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#430

Post by bradleyjg »

martinald wrote: post #343
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

Let's get it in perspective though. The S&P500 market cap is currently $70T. Assume that Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX all IPO and get included in SPY with the new fast listing rules. They are likely to be worth $3-4T combined, which means 'retail' investors are going to have perhaps 5% of their portfolio in it. _Arugably_ that's a pretty fair allocation for retail investors to have to these "moonshot" style companies…

The index don’t use the full market cap, they use free float. Except for nasdaq and the Dow which just pick numbers out of the air.

At least at first the spacex free float will be quite modest.

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