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Tesla Q1 2021 Results

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Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#401

Post by AlexC04 »

habeebtc wrote: post #208
cs702 wrote: post #132

Whatever you may think of Tesla and Musk, you have to agree that they've accomplished something rather incredible. Few would have thought this possible not that long ago: * 185K vehicle deliveries in Q1, +109% versus a year ago [a] * 2.7K supercharger stations, +41% versus a year ago * 24.5K supercharger connectors, +44% versus a year ago * 92 MW of solar generation deployed in Q1, +163% versus a year ago * 445 MWh o…

I have two separate and (mostly) unrelated feelings. Musk has done something remarkable as you say. At the same time, the market cap is nuts and a portent of doom. Bigger than all car companies combined, by market cap? A market crash could take down Tesla and set back electric car adoption by 20 years.

If you're still seeing tesla as a car company you're missing their home-energy business and their utility business.

Look at the australian mega-battery project. They've reduced power outages and normalized the grid.

As household solar+battery installs grow, they're going to eat into the massive utility business.

They're much bigger than cars because they are not just cars.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#402

Post by andy_ppp »

iso1631 wrote: post #281
sharken wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Europe there is still too few charging facilities. Basically an EV only makes sense if you own a house and can get your own charger. The V2 supercharger still needs around 20 minutes for an 80% charge, while the new BMW iX3 needs around 30 minutes for 80%. The Tesla V3 supercharger is promising, but the killer feature will be a unified charging platform and not one for each car maker.

> Basically an EV only makes sense if you own a house and can get your own charger. New houses in the UK have required chargers as part of planning permission for 5 years. Most people have, or can have, a 3KW socket installed in their driveway, very cheaply (like 2-3 tanks of fuel) 73% of cars in the UK are parked on private property overnight. Most cars do under 8,000 miles a year, or 160 miles a week, 77% of cars p…

>>> Most cars do under 8,000 miles a year, or 160 miles a week

It's not a useful stat - the only useful one is how many journeys per year can I not do in an electric vehicle in the UK with one 30 minute stop or about 15 mins of charging.

I think the answer is very few because the UK is small, but averages don't really cut it when you plan a drive to Scotland and can't get there without 2 extra hours of delay compared to a petrol vehicle.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#403

Post by volta83 »

stkdump wrote: post #396
volta83 wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not really a thing in Europe. Renting a big nice car for a 1 week holiday (so ~10 days) sets' you back 1000$, which is a bit over the average net monthly income over here. You can rent a small shitty car for much less, but then you might as well just use your own car. If money is not an issue, renting a car, picking it up, etc. is a bit of a pain. Since money is not an issue, you might as well spend more on a…

I don't think your number is accurate, at least not for western europe. Also you have to compare what you save in terms of purchase price (and electricity cost, because you drive a lighter car) with what it costs for renting over the lifetime of the car. The salary level doesn't really factor in directly. The real reason more people don't do it, is that a car is a status symbol and most people like wasting money on i…

You can buy a used VW Golf 4 years old with You can probably re-sell it 4 years later with 100k km for 6k EUR.

There isn't an electric car that can compete with this today.

You could buy a Tesla 3 for ~30k EUR, and then rent at 500 EUR every 3 months (being extremely cheap), and in those 4 years, just the renting almost matches the entire price of the VW Golf.

For the numbers of the electric car to even make sense long term you'd need cheap ass electricity, which at least in central Europe you only get if you charge at home. The moment you charge outside, gas is almost always cheaper than electricity.

That still leaves insurance, repairs, etc. on the table. Repairing a popular car like a Golf is dirt cheap.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#404

Post by jpgvm »

hurril wrote: post #400
habeebtc wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have two separate and (mostly) unrelated feelings. Musk has done something remarkable as you say. At the same time, the market cap is nuts and a portent of doom. Bigger than all car companies combined, by market cap? A market crash could take down Tesla and set back electric car adoption by 20 years.

No, a market crash would not touch Tesla as the stock and the company are two different things. The fact that a lot of people want to pay top dollar to own a share of the pie is not the Tesla operations churning out cars (or not.)

This is correct. To add TSLA took advantage of it's massive stock price rise to pad it's coffers with a number of stock offerings.

They now have a warchest of billions of cash and cash equivalents (like BTC) that they can use to expand without going back to the public market for cash for a while. Especially with their cash flows looking a lot better now.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#405

Post by read_if_gay_ »

yuribro wrote: post #395
kozak wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you say "in their driveway", you are already excluding everyone who doesn't have a driveway. I can recall maybe two or three people I know who have their own driveways.

If the GP's statistics are correct, how does your anecdote changes anything? More than 70% of all car owners is a very viable market.

73% parking on private property doesn’t mean 73% have their own driveway, and it was only mentioned that it’s cheap to install a charger in a fairly recent driveway.

I suppose GP’s question is how does that 73% figure change when you look at people who can realistically have a charger installed in their parking spot.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#406

Post by f6v »

zarkov99 wrote: post #374
legulere wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wouldn’t, even traditional car manufacturers like VW are massively ramping up their electric car production. They just don’t have Elon musk for PR

They also do not have the technology, the software capabilities or the charging network. In fact all they have is PR right now. Their EV offering is at 5 to 8 years behind Tesla and and they are moving slower in R&D.

> the software capabilities

Am I wrong or the cars were running software for at least a decade? What kind of software can’t VW develop?

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#407

Post by hurril »

jpgvm wrote: post #404
hurril wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, a market crash would not touch Tesla as the stock and the company are two different things. The fact that a lot of people want to pay top dollar to own a share of the pie is not the Tesla operations churning out cars (or not.)

This is correct. To add TSLA took advantage of it's massive stock price rise to pad it's coffers with a number of stock offerings. They now have a warchest of billions of cash and cash equivalents (like BTC) that they can use to expand without going back to the public market for cash for a while. Especially with their cash flows looking a lot better now.

Yes. A lot of the stock rockets do this now, so sure - that connects the stock to the company.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#408

Post by f6v »

aero-glide2 wrote: post #272
habeebtc wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have two separate and (mostly) unrelated feelings. Musk has done something remarkable as you say. At the same time, the market cap is nuts and a portent of doom. Bigger than all car companies combined, by market cap? A market crash could take down Tesla and set back electric car adoption by 20 years.

Lets start with two assumptions. In 10 years, majority of cars sold will be electric. Majority of cars sold will have self driving capability. Tesla is a leader in both. Much of the traditional knowledge companies have about ICE engines do not help them build a better electric car. That knowledge is worthless for the future. Stock price represents future value.

> Majority of cars sold will have self driving capability.

Self-driving is always around the corner, just 5 years away.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#409

Post by volta83 »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #397
volta83 wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Outlier in which sense ? There is a lot of people from southern Europe and northern africa (morroco, algeria, etc.) living in central Europe (France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Switzerland, etc.). There is a lot of people from East Europe (Poland, Ukraine, Czec republic, Croatia, Turkey) living in Central Europe as well. How do you think these people travel to visit their families every couple of months ? They do 100…

How do you think these people travel to visit their families every couple of months ? They do 1000km per way trips with the car. The average annual milage across the whole of the EU is 12,000Km per year, it's even lower in Eastern Europe. Most people aren't making these sort of trips regularly. You are an outlier.

> The average annual milage across the whole of the EU is 12,000Km per year, it's even lower in Eastern Europe.

I do these trips every 2 months.

My average mileage is 9,000 - 10,0000km per year.

I don't really know what point you are trying to make with average mileage or where you got that number from.

But average mileage doesn't say anything about the frequency and the length of the trips people do on their cars.

Most people I know don't have a car. The ones that do have a car commute to work via public transportation or bike. They only use the car on the weekends, or holidays.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#410

Post by darkwater »

iso1631 wrote: post #281
sharken wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Europe there is still too few charging facilities. Basically an EV only makes sense if you own a house and can get your own charger. The V2 supercharger still needs around 20 minutes for an 80% charge, while the new BMW iX3 needs around 30 minutes for 80%. The Tesla V3 supercharger is promising, but the killer feature will be a unified charging platform and not one for each car maker.

> Basically an EV only makes sense if you own a house and can get your own charger. New houses in the UK have required chargers as part of planning permission for 5 years. Most people have, or can have, a 3KW socket installed in their driveway, very cheaply (like 2-3 tanks of fuel) 73% of cars in the UK are parked on private property overnight. Most cars do under 8,000 miles a year, or 160 miles a week, 77% of cars p…

> 73% of cars in the UK are parked on private property overnight.

Define "private property". Is a private, shared (like in tens/hundred of vehicles shared) parking a "private property" by this statistic?

I found a study [1] based on the results of a survey (2021) from the European Union that states:

> Several conclusions can be derived in terms of the significance of driving patterns in relation to the potential use/substitution of a larger portion of the car fleet with electric drive vehicles. In particular, the average distance that is daily driven in 6 members states ranges from an average of 40 km (UK) to an average of 80 km (Poland). Such distances can be comfortably covered by battery electric vehicles that are currently already available on the market. Further R&D improvements in battery systems could ensure that the “range anxiety” factor is minimized. Considering the long recharging time of the energy storage systems of an EDV, the duration of the parking profiles is a good indicator for the estimation of potential recharge time availability. In our survey it has been revealed that the parking time after the last trip of a day amounts to more than 16 hours per day. This duration is more than sufficient to comply with the potential need for a full slow recharge of an average EDV battery. Also, almost 10% of the drivers in the survey park in a private garage or their home, places where a recharging point could easily be installed. The active parking time, defined as the parking periods between which the car is used during a day for several purposes, amounts to 6 hours.

[1] http://publications.europa.eu/resource/genpub/PUB_LDNA25627E...

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