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When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

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Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#401

Post by saberdancer »

fomine3 wrote: post #286
saberdancer wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even current Oculus Quest can detect and show objects in your environment. It doesn't seem that hard for VR in the future to utilize that and adapt the environment around you to mimic your obstacles. Another possibility is games that create infinite impossible maze (Tea For God). You can walk around in that game for hours without hitting anything. You don't need customized environments, you need some free space aroun…

Virtual barrier won't work if I move quickly. Play The Thrill of the Fight, punch a wall!

Yes, if you run you will hit a wall. If you completely lose track of outside world that is a possibility.

For most people, if they have issues with this constantly they should make their guardian smaller and put the system to be more sensitive and show the guardian earlier. If this doesn't help then you are out of luck but for most people, it works fine.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#402

Post by criddell »

echelon wrote: post #329
pbourke wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t gaming a larger industry than the movies, driven largely by consoles? Seems like gaming had its iPhone moment a generation ago. Edit: gaming is larger than the movie and music industries combined

Games cost a lot more than music and movies. $50, $60, $70 per game... Gamers like to pay for collectables, DLC, limited editions, figurines, steam sales for games they don't play, etc. Meanwhile unlimited music streaming is $9/mo. (Are concerts and merch considered in the "industry" revenues?) Unlimited steaming on Netflix is $13.99/mo for their mid-tier plan. If games had an "unlimited streaming" subscription equiv…

> Games cost a lot more than music and movies. $50, $60, $70 per game...

That's only half the gaming market by revenue. The other half is mobile gaming and those games are typically under $5.

If you count by player, then the mobile market is larger.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#403

Post by croes »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #305
croes wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not a take off but still a niche. The Quest 2 is more likely to just replace other VR headsets.

It's a niche, but now it's a substantial niche rather than an incredibly tiny one like VR was a decade ago. 5m sales/year isn't a lot, but it's a lot more than nothing.

Dollar or devices?

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#404

Post by criddell »

SulfurHexaFluri wrote: post #323
dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

I'm not sure why there's an expectation that the consumer VR market is going to grow by orders of magnitude. I think the market is basically what it's going to be.

It's a great demo but not something I want to spend much time in.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#405

Post by intrasight »

Late to the thread - but was thinking about when I woke up. I think that compelling (eg non FPS games) content will have to wait for a mainstream device. My prediction is that Apple will make a compelling headset within two years. It'll wirelessly tether to the next generation (M2-M3) Macbook. It'll sell for about $1000. And the developer community will jump on board.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#406

Post by Cactus2018 »

strombofulous wrote: post #255
Cactus2018 wrote: post #234

VR Headsets comparison table: "VR System Guide Summer 2020! Updated with Reverb G2, and all recent info. By Evanlyboy" https://imgur.com/a/QVbyeA1 https://old.reddit.com/r/SteamVR/comments/hzkl36/vr_system_g...

Personally I think this one offers more usable information: https://i.redd.it/r6idh33kitp51.png

That is a great comparison.

This was the source cannel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJy8VU1mV08

Note that the image is a contentious summary (people talking about the camera's focus and aperture, and the many comments on the Index's screen shot) https://old.reddit.com/r/virtualreality/comments/j15plf/12_h...

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#407

Post by dougmwne »

tommilukkarinen wrote: post #380
dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

It looks the consensus here is pretty much that anyone who tried the latest tech understands that we have went beyond a certain point here. Comparing to phones, I think this is the point where we have keypad-phones. Content is still limited, but using your imagination you can create good experiences. Personally, I switched to VR/Quest gaming from PC this autumn, and I feel good about it. I feel healthier than sitting…

I have watched a lot of products come and go. It's been quite a while since I saw a product and realized that it would not be silly to pivot my career to take advantage of the opportunity. VR is one of those things.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#408

Post by abraxas »

Noos wrote: post #347
chaostheory wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with Wii Sports is that you couldn't make it a high intensity workout. High intensity workouts are a reality in VR. This is just one example out of many https://www.getsupernatural.com Even boxing is amazing and tiring https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/3008315795852749

Don't need VR for that at all, Konami did a great arcade boxing game that was also quite the workout in 2001, called Mocap boxing: https://www.arcade-museum.com/game_detail.php?game_id=8724

Not sure if serious...

you think this contraption holds a candle to its VR counterpart?

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#409

Post by Dylan16807 »

auganov wrote: post #390
jobigoud wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gaming is a only small part of what VR can do. Education (language learning, geography, biology, engineering...), real estate, porn, psychology, situational training (firemen), scientific visualization and collaboration, spatial painting and other artforms, social interaction, movie shots planning, etc.

All of the things mentioned are already being done without VR headsets. People can go through their entire lives not realizing they've been stereoblind. The world seems as real to them as to anybody else. It's not obvious to me VR is such a huge game changer. Suppose we had 2 computer games. One that perfectly reproduced real world "graphics" and "gameplay", looks like a real life high resolution video. Everything is…

Depending on your definition of "mechanics", the second sounds significantly more immersive to me. If the graphics look like Toy Story, so be it. I don't mind if the movement is slightly janky, considering how imprecise a keyboard or controller is to start with.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#410

Post by Dylan16807 »

rwmj wrote: post #375
mycall wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My bet is when someone makes a spoon that can reproduce any flavor. I think everyone will want that.

Why would that be anything more than a novelty? It completely misses the joy of sharing food and cooking.

Why can't you share while using the fancy spoon?

And while cooking is enjoyable, that doesn't mean you want to spend the time on it every single day, twice or more!

Do you think restaurants are a novelty? Takeout/delivery/fast food?

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