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When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

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Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#321

Post by zmmmmm »

causality0 wrote: post #290

VR is a magical experience but for me it just isn't worth the hassle. VR is going to have to get to the "pick up and play within 60 seconds" level of convenience before I spend any more money on it. Getting my glasses to fit correctly in the headset is a pain. Adjusting the focus when I put it on is a pain. Software that tells me everything is working fine when I have no picture is a pain. Setting up the play area ev…

If you haven't used a Quest headset then you should update your thoughts after doing that. It pretty much solves the points you raise.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#322

Post by SamBam »

iguanayou wrote: post #142
jmiskovic wrote: post #66

On same note, developing VR from inside is incredible and it quickly turned into my #1 hobby. At first you are surrounded with blank space, then you slowly fill it out with whatever reality rules you can think of. I went with code-only approach (no binary assets) and built a primitive development environment that works in VR. Now I have a neat little virtual shed with different experiments and demo projects. Geometri…

Or you could build actual things in an actual shed? This is the same impulse that drives people to build furniture, boats, and model train layouts. To me, the real physical objects are much more fulfilling.

I like making furniture too (it's a stereotype for many devs), but I don't look down my nose and pretend that there's some objective reason that my hobby is "more fulfilling" than someone else's (particularly when that person's hobby also involves being creative and using their brain). I mean, sheesh.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#323

Post by SulfurHexaFluri »

dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited.

I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine.

VR is ready today if its something you want. Its fun, cheap enough and has loads of games. If you hold out for something better you will always be waiting because there will always be something much better in 5 years.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#324

Post by SulfurHexaFluri »

m463 wrote: post #316
dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

I think you're right -- new technology is overestimated (overhyped) in the short term, and underestimated in the long term. I think of speech recognition over the years where the promise never met reality and then it quietly started answering most corporate phones. I have tried VR many times over the years (I vividly recall there was an interesting arcade game back around 1990 that used it). I got a vive. I tried oth…

For me the kinds of games I mostly play do not translate well to VR. Or at least yet. But for stuff that does translate like shooters, its unreal how much better they are in VR.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#325

Post by pbourke »

SulfurHexaFluri wrote: post #323
dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

Isn’t gaming a larger industry than the movies, driven largely by consoles? Seems like gaming had its iPhone moment a generation ago.

Edit: gaming is larger than the movie and music industries combined

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#326

Post by edmundsauto »

lwansbrough wrote: post #319
edmundsauto wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterpoint: you have entrenched your opinion and are unwilling or unable to update it, despite acknowledging that your inputs are 5 years out of date. To point to specifically inaccurate or misleading statements of yours: 1. "still requires controllers" - incorrect, hand tracking is a thing, and on its way to a user friendly input. It's not clear why controllers are a negative - do you similarly criticize the PS5 f…

> hand tracking is a thing, and on its way to a user friendly input Which is about where it was last time I checked in. Most VR games require use of controllers do they not? As long as you have cumbersome interfaces like handheld controllers or hand tracking that doesn't handle occlusion you can't maintain a suspension of disbelief. If it's not clear why controllers are a negative, you're not really getting what VR s…

Hand tracking on the Oculus was only added last year, so perhaps your 5 year old opinion is out of date. Your experience is also not particularly insightful regarding the future of VR - your expectations appear to be for a finished, polished device, and anything short is sufficient for declaring a whole category dead.

Progress isn't linear. There have been significant jumps in the past few years. Sales appear to be supply constrained. Many people have lots of joyful experiences.

That said, your conclusion may be correct. Predicting the future is hard, and your subjective perspective doesn't justify the certainty with which you comment.

That said, this is probably not a constructive conversation for either of us, or HN. I wish you a pleasant day.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#327

Post by rubicon33 »

gonehome wrote: post #133
dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

The headsets are pretty cool - I’ve played with all of them except for the Valve Index. Though there’s something unpleasant about them that keeps me from going back when the novelty wears off. I think it might be because I don’t want to be standing and moving around when playing a game and if you’re not doing that, the motion is kind of unpleasant. I’m not sure this is something it can really overcome. I think an AR…

Long time PC gamer, DK1, DK2, CV1, Index, Quest 1, and Quest 2 owner here.

I understand where you're coming from, but I disagree.

When I first got into VR back in 2013 it was cool for a minute, then the novelty wore off. I dabbled with it over the years, but it never stuck. I felt like you do.

2016 the CV1 came out and I was briefly reunited with a strong interest in VR which, eventually, faded. The next few years I didn't play much, and when I did, it wasn't for very long.

The problem was entirely CONTENT and it is FINALLY in 2020 starting to come around.

We have seen some absolutely excellent AAA games released that are loads of fun and not just glorified tech demos (though to be sure, those still exist).

- POPULATION:ONE

- Metal of Honor: Above and Beyond

- Half Life: Alyx

- Asgard's Wrath

Any many more. I'm finally finding myself using my VR headsets DAILY. In fact my Oculus CV1 which came out 4 years ago is still my all around favorite!

I think as content improves (especially multiplayer content) and the headsets get more comfortable and easy to put on / take off, we will hopefully see continued expansion of this medium. It's THE way to game, if you ask me. Nothing is more engaging then jumping off a building, spreading my arms to fly, then pulling them together to grip my gun and land a quick snipe on someone in mid air. Keyboard and mouse can suck it.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#328

Post by vtange »

pbourke wrote: post #325
SulfurHexaFluri wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

Isn’t gaming a larger industry than the movies, driven largely by consoles? Seems like gaming had its iPhone moment a generation ago. Edit: gaming is larger than the movie and music industries combined

Yes it's true it's larger than books and movies, but games in the end just compete with other forms of media for customers' entertainment dollars.

Unless we can come up with a use case for VR beyond gaming and fulfilling escapist fantasies. It will likely just be another contender for entertainment dollars.

Smartphones on the other hand essentially made it possible to do anything a general desktop pc could do for people on the go without having to be tethered to a chair infront of a desk. Phones can be used for payment, notetaking, etc. There are people who use smartphones and don't play games at all.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#329

Post by echelon »

pbourke wrote: post #325
SulfurHexaFluri wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

Isn’t gaming a larger industry than the movies, driven largely by consoles? Seems like gaming had its iPhone moment a generation ago. Edit: gaming is larger than the movie and music industries combined

Games cost a lot more than music and movies. $50, $60, $70 per game...

Gamers like to pay for collectables, DLC, limited editions, figurines, steam sales for games they don't play, etc.

Meanwhile unlimited music streaming is $9/mo. (Are concerts and merch considered in the "industry" revenues?)

Unlimited steaming on Netflix is $13.99/mo for their mid-tier plan.

If games had an "unlimited streaming" subscription equivalent, the industry's revenue would be much smaller.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#330

Post by wlesieutre »

jsemrau wrote: post #271
wlesieutre wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That depends entirely on your living situation. If you live on your own, a VR headset becomes just the opposite - you go from being isolated to being in a room full of people. Those people can be on the opposite side of the world, but you're carrying on a conversation and playing mini-golf with them. Or for local play, there are one-vs-many party games where one player wears a headset and interacts with a group of pe…

>That depends entirely on your living situation. If you live on your own, a VR headset becomes just the opposite - you go from being isolated to being in a room full of people. That is a really depressing and dystopian future that I am not sure if I want to live in. Yes, MMOs and games like GTA-O, Roblox, or Fortnite are in the same area already now available. But in my opinion this only increases the actual isolatio…

Telephones increase my isolation compared to taking face-to-face but I’m still glad to have the option
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