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Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

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Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#401

Post by seanmcdirmid »

phkahler wrote: post #379
jonahbenton wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mortgage interest rates at all-all-all time lows. It's a little ridiculous to say that given that mortgages are, say, a 50 year old product. All time not very long. But debt and interest have been with us for thousands of years and it is likely that there has never been such low cost liquidity for durable assets (houses) as there is now. When you think about why THAT is, it should make you worried to buy that house.

There's only one way for interest rates to go from here, and home prices vary inversely with those rates. For middle class folks still working, I'd say save your money and wait for the next housing collapse. Sure, interest rates may be higher but you'll have cash. Or I could be wrong...

Unless you need a place to live now, especially during WFH craziness related to COVID...

Also, Trump or even his successor might juice the economy quantitative easing, meaning that cash you are saving in the bank becomes worth less anyways. This isn’t an easy decision to make.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#402

Post by tjr225 »

lr4444lr wrote: post #344
jeffbee wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is generally true. You can bike right out of San Francisco over the Golden Gate Bridge and be away from the city in minutes. You can walk or bike out of the west side of silicon valley into a huge area of contiguous parkland. If you leave San Jose in the right direction you could hike for days without seeing anyone.

You can bike right out of Philly and Boise and get the same things. Maybe even more beauty. Why should we pay SF prices for the privilege?

I would say those two examples are incomparable to what is available in the Bay Area in terms of outdoor recreation access.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#403

Post by darkwizard42 »

pjlegato wrote: post #393
p1mrx wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you're just renting... won't the price skyrocket when things go back to normal?

Almost all apartments in SF are rent controlled. The landlord can only raise the rent by some tiny nominal percentage mandated by the rent board every year.

This isn't really true... it only applies to units that were built before a certain year (1979). If you are in any kind of modern unit / luxury unit as noted by GP, then this won't hold.

However, most landlords in non-managed buildings are fairly reasonable about only raising rent 2-5% a year. Your mileage may vary.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#404

Post by sircastor »

kgermino wrote: post #120
khuey wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Staying within North America largely eliminates the timezone problem.

It also avoids a lot of cultural/communication problems. Even when everyone speaks the same language, words have subtly different meanings in different cultures. This is true across NA as well, but SF vs Atlanta is much closer than Chicago vs India or Brazil. Not to mention that these are also big countries with their own regional language variations.

I’m reminded of communications between Sega of America and Sega of Japan noted in console wars, where SoA would make a suggestion, and SoJ world respond “Ok”. The former understood that to be agreement, the latter was stating it as acknowledgment. Even though they were speaking the same language, their understanding was different and getting in the way.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#405

Post by selimthegrim »

lr4444lr wrote: post #350
luma wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long does the “high paying” part stay true when companies who need technical talent can now pull candidates from the entire world? I wonder if the move towards remote work might wind up pushing down IT wages across the board. edit: instead of downvoting, maybe help me understand why I might be looking at this wrong?

They've already had that option for many years. Mass outsourcing of U.S. high skill IT just never materialized. I suspect there's a much greater managerial gulf between Bangalore and New York than between Dubuque Iowa and New York.

Did you pick Dubuque because of the IBM shop there?

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#406

Post by xfour »

hkmurakami wrote: post #337
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except home prices are rocketing up rather than down ATM. If people are moving out, you’d think more of them would be selling their houses.

What's becoming increasingly clear is that the submarkets of urban condos, urban SFH, suburban condos, and suburban SFH are dissociating and exhibiting their own dynamics. Suburban SFH is performing very well.

If you take zip code level as granular enough https://realbloc.com has some data for ya.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#407

Post by tjr225 »

Nursie wrote: post #137
tjr225 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Culture and things to do include a lot more than just networking and museums. One example for instance is the vast amount of unique natural beauty surrounding the Bay Area. Even rural places that have that are also expensive- though admittedly not nearly as much so. This is generally reflected in salary though.

> One example for instance is the vast amount of unique natural beauty surrounding the Bay Area. But that's not what you move to most cities for. SF may be exceptional in having that stuff as well , but for most cities, if you lock down the social/cultural aspects, then the natural beauty is elsewhere.

It might not be why you suspect people move to cities for; but I suspect people pay a premium to live in a city that also happens to be surrounded by beauty.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#408

Post by bezmenov »

josephg wrote: post #386
boringg wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a good deal.

Only because of how insane housing in SF is. For comparison I own a 2br apartment in Melbourne, Australia. It takes about 15 minutes to walk from here to the heart of the city. My mortgage repayments (including interest) are about $700usd/month.

Better coffee and no human excrement on the sidewalks too.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#409

Post by nemo44x »

phkahler wrote: post #379
jonahbenton wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mortgage interest rates at all-all-all time lows. It's a little ridiculous to say that given that mortgages are, say, a 50 year old product. All time not very long. But debt and interest have been with us for thousands of years and it is likely that there has never been such low cost liquidity for durable assets (houses) as there is now. When you think about why THAT is, it should make you worried to buy that house.

There's only one way for interest rates to go from here, and home prices vary inversely with those rates. For middle class folks still working, I'd say save your money and wait for the next housing collapse. Sure, interest rates may be higher but you'll have cash. Or I could be wrong...

Possibly but there’s still a long way down to go. I can’t fathom negative rates but I wouldn’t be shocked to see rates get below 2% and maybe stay like that a long time.

When the economy was roaring a couple years ago the Fed was starting to bump rates up it shook the markets bad. Started ratcheting down since.

If they can somehow get inflation higher then I could see rates moving up a bit. But it just hasn’t happened. So much of the rest of the world has lower rates (much lower) as well.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#410

Post by kfarr »

xivzgrev wrote: post #295
rcpt wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> as someone in NYC NYC is a legit megacity - New York has been described as the cultural, financial, and media capital of the world. SF is small by comparison. Only a small portion of SF is walkable and even then the blocks are long. Transit is sparse and dirty and most people end up owning cars. Despite this housing is more expensive than NYC. Unless you think it's reasonable to pay $4k a month for a one bedroom in…

Bro have you ever visited indianapolis? Yes the two cities are about the same size population but that’s about the only similarity. SF has a different climate, geography, cities, people, food, politics, etc.

Yeah that's a pretty hilarious comparison. It just so happens I grew up in Indy and now live in SF. Been here for 15 years and would not move back. Not at all the same.
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