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It's Not Just Apple vs Android

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Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#41
What he and the Gruber peice he references (did he seriously say Gruber isn't an Apple Cheerleader?!) fail to mention is trend.

The trend is your friend, one of the first things anyone who's suffered a trader learns. It's not a case of how high or low something is, but where it is going to be relative to it's current place.

Press and Markets get this (the former to a lesser extent true) but the fear is that Apple have had their Halcyon days. Originally Apple didn't need to worry about such issues as apps, they had the first phone device with a web browser that people really spoke about liking. Heck they didn't even have GPS dispite most feature phones in the UK having it with maps.

A lot of analyists are asking, rightly so, why is Apple able to keep making such money, now the market is cramped. Want a better camera, buy the 920, want a better screen? Buy the HTC, want a larger phone, buy the S4, want a smaller phone buy the. Hell I don't even know, but you get where I'm going with this.

The brand of the iPhone people fear to be falling. In the old days of Windows 3.1 domination, the software took months to years to write. Most of them now adays have little if anything more than weeks of platform specific code. The alternate marketplace is huge, due to the size of the global market place. Hell a friend was just telling me how he thinks he'll make a profit porting to the new blackberry, despite it having very low uptake here in London.

These notions lend people to conclude that what is currently happening with Apple might not be sustainable. Gruber has been consistently wrong the last few months (in fact he is always as he predicts little but Apple growth) with regards to the decrease in share price and failure to develop new market share.

tldr; It might not be Apple vs Google. But neither are expanding their userbase rapidily, without encrouging on the other.

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#42

What he and the Gruber peice he references (did he seriously say Gruber isn't an Apple Cheerleader?!) fail to mention is trend. The trend is your friend , one of the first things anyone who's suffered a trader learns. It's not a case of how high or low something is, but where it is going to be relative to it's current place. Press and Markets get this (the former to a lesser extent true) but the fear is that Apple ha…

It is the ecosystem that Apple sells, not the hardware. People buy Apple because they know the handset will be supported for a specific period of time, that every developer wants to sell on iOS and works hard to be there, and that they can walk into an Apple store and get support any day they want.

For the hacker, most of these things are irrelevant, but for Joe-Schmo who wants to put minimal effort forward when managing their digital life, the iPhone is the pinnacle of abstraction.

Apple makes money because they sell the promise of a long, comfortable relationship and they fulfill it time and again. Even with Samsung, will I be able to update my s4 beyond Jellybean? The answer is a firm "maybe", but I know 100% that my iPhone will get updates for years.

That's why Apple makes money, because they sell peace of mind.

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#43

From Gruber's article: >By profit share, on the other hand, according to Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley, last year Apple took 69 percent of the handset industry’s profits; Samsung took 34. For just the last quarter, the numbers were 72 percent for Apple, 29 for Samsung. You will note that both the annual and quarterly numbers total more than 100 percent; that is because all other handset makers, combine…

>If iOS is beating Android, why can't Windows Server be considered beating Linux by the same metric?

If you're going to talk about iOS vs Android, you should look at what Gruber says about iOS:

> The same company that runs the best and most popular app store (including the most successful handheld gaming platform), and whose media entertainment ecosystem has, by far, the best reach worldwide. The same company whose platform disproportionately dominates usage statistics.

He says iOS has the best and most popular source for third party software, an opinion supported by all of the iOS-first or iOS-only software that is out there (Vine is a recent example). The iTunes music, movie and TV stores reach many more people than any other store [1][2], giving iOS more of the market for these things by default. The disproportionate usage share suggests iOS is a more valuable target for apps, reinforcing the favorable position of Apple's App Store, and for advertising. Google makes more advertising money from iOS than Android [3].

As Gruber argues, it sure seems like iOS is winning in every metric except the number of devices being sold that use it.

[1] http://www.macstories.net/stories/mapping-the-entertainment-...

[2] http://www.macstories.net/news/mapping-the-entertainment-eco...

[3] http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/mar/29/google-earn...

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#44

What he and the Gruber peice he references (did he seriously say Gruber isn't an Apple Cheerleader?!) fail to mention is trend. The trend is your friend , one of the first things anyone who's suffered a trader learns. It's not a case of how high or low something is, but where it is going to be relative to it's current place. Press and Markets get this (the former to a lesser extent true) but the fear is that Apple ha…

>These notions lend people to conclude that what is currently happening with Apple might not be sustainable. Gruber has been consistently wrong the last few months (in fact he is always as he predicts little but Apple growth) with regards to the decrease in share price and failure to develop new market share.

Apple wasn't priced as a growth stock, though. If a non-tech company had their kind of growth, the P/E of the stock would be well above 50. Apple, at their highest profit growth, had a P/E of 18. That's basically a normal P/E.

Is Apple's growth going to slow? Sure, that's inevitable. But Apple wasn't priced to grow to begin with.

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#45

What he and the Gruber peice he references (did he seriously say Gruber isn't an Apple Cheerleader?!) fail to mention is trend. The trend is your friend , one of the first things anyone who's suffered a trader learns. It's not a case of how high or low something is, but where it is going to be relative to it's current place. Press and Markets get this (the former to a lesser extent true) but the fear is that Apple ha…

The trend is that iOS's market share is growing, albeit not as fast as Android's has been.

As an aside, if you want a smartphone that is not humongous, your options are:

1) A low- to mid-range Android device,

or 2) Any iPhone

When was the last time a high-end Android or Windows Phone device was released with a 4" or smaller screen?

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#46

What he and the Gruber peice he references (did he seriously say Gruber isn't an Apple Cheerleader?!) fail to mention is trend. The trend is your friend , one of the first things anyone who's suffered a trader learns. It's not a case of how high or low something is, but where it is going to be relative to it's current place. Press and Markets get this (the former to a lesser extent true) but the fear is that Apple ha…

I'm not going to say he isn't pro-Apple, but he does at least attempt to find the nuance in the story. I was merely saying I don't dismiss him out of hand as some do.

Regarding the trend, I concur and I somewhat covered the excellence of most of the handsets now in the market certainly means a much more competitive marketplace.

I don't necessarily think Apple have stopped growing (their last quarter would seem to refute that[1]) but it wouldn't be a surprise if they are peaking.

[1]:http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/01/23Apple-Reports-Reco...

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#47
post #6

> Nokia (with Microsoft) make beautiful hardware and Windows Phone is lush, but for some reason is not getting the market love its quality deserves. Two points here: First, it pains me to see MS lumped with Nokia. I'll be clinging to my N9 for a very long time yet (and probably only move on when Ubuntu or Firefox phones are compelling). I miss Maemo/MeeGo. Second, the reason which MS doesn't get the love which its qu…

If your second point were the dominant factor, then Android should been hit even harder( in the US), since Google Voice has been included since 2011.

Google Voice still uses regular old phone calls, unlike pure VoIP setups like Skype. A carrier agnostic phone number and free data-based SMSes must rankle carriers, but it does at least require voice minutes.

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#48

What he and the Gruber peice he references (did he seriously say Gruber isn't an Apple Cheerleader?!) fail to mention is trend. The trend is your friend , one of the first things anyone who's suffered a trader learns. It's not a case of how high or low something is, but where it is going to be relative to it's current place. Press and Markets get this (the former to a lesser extent true) but the fear is that Apple ha…

It is the ecosystem that Apple sells, not the hardware. People buy Apple because they know the handset will be supported for a specific period of time, that every developer wants to sell on iOS and works hard to be there, and that they can walk into an Apple store and get support any day they want. For the hacker, most of these things are irrelevant, but for Joe-Schmo who wants to put minimal effort forward when mana…

True, and that peace of mind can be appealing to hackers as well. We only have so many hours in the day after all.

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the web is so wide open and been available for over 20 years to the public, I fail to see how Apple is responsible for this lock-in trend. Rather Apple has aptly uncovered an untapped desire among the public, which the web failed to provide. Yes, you can say Apple started it, so they're responsible. But this desire was ready for the pickin's. I don't fault Apple for picking it up. It must have been obvious to t…

Yes, but a 30% cut gives them all incentive in the world to further destroy the open marketplace (html). I do not have evidence that it is happening - but this must be an Apple goal. Simply because of how they are profiting from this arrangement. Or, to put it another way: the financial incentives for Apple are not at all aligned with my personal interests. Whereas I can not say the same thing about Google. I do not…

So you're claiming that the company who initially pushed web apps as the iPhone API but caved under pressure from developers, the same company who developed webkit. You're claiming this company is trying to destroy the web?

Do you not think that's a little unjustified?

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#50
post #44

What he and the Gruber peice he references (did he seriously say Gruber isn't an Apple Cheerleader?!) fail to mention is trend. The trend is your friend , one of the first things anyone who's suffered a trader learns. It's not a case of how high or low something is, but where it is going to be relative to it's current place. Press and Markets get this (the former to a lesser extent true) but the fear is that Apple ha…

>These notions lend people to conclude that what is currently happening with Apple might not be sustainable. Gruber has been consistently wrong the last few months (in fact he is always as he predicts little but Apple growth) with regards to the decrease in share price and failure to develop new market share. Apple wasn't priced as a growth stock, though. If a non-tech company had their kind of growth, the P/E of the…

I don't want to run in to a discussion on economic theory, but P/E has to be taken with a pinch of salt when looking at large firms.

Risk is the important thing for investors, P/E is normally a measure of value vs Growth expectation, but the Price will always be waited by the risk.

No matter how you cut it, people expected something from Apple with the stock valuation of last year. People are worried there is a trend of Apple loosing its ground, even loosing its after sales prodcuts things like music for example for Spotify.

I'm not suggesting that everyone assumed explosive growth, and $1400 a share by 2014, just that share prices are based on future expectation, not present state.

People (well the market) obviously that to be something more than they do now.

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