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Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

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Re: Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

#41
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the average salary country wide. What's the average salary in "some of the poorer regions"? Also I'm not sure rental rates in a country currently actively being invaded and regularly bombed is a good example.

The situation was actually comparable even before the full-scale invasion.

Fine, but you're still comparing apples to oranges by using the country-wide average salary against the average rent in the poorest regions.

Re: Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

#42
As ever, YMMV. Like most renters here, we're paying 2x what we were 5y ago. During that time, our region transitioned from the most affordable category to the least affordable.

The article shows our rents are up 4 percent; nothing shows any indication of slowing.

The folks most likely to be priced out of housing by escalating costs - they are the same folks who don't have the stack of cash needed to move to a different market.

Re: Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

#43
post #38

Source: https://www.redfin.com/news/rental-tracker-may-2025/

This is interesting:

“I’m not seeing many first-time homebuyers right now,” said Nicole Stewart, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Boise, ID. “Rental rates here are still more manageable than saving up for a down payment and mortgage. People are finding rentals that are nicer than the house they could afford at the same monthly cost. That’s in part because a lot of home sellers are overpricing their properties as they struggle to adjust to the changing housing market.”

> The typical U.S. homebuyer needs to earn over $50,000 more than the typical renter to afford monthly housing payments, and the gap has been widening due to high home prices and mortgages rates.

I’ve heard that buying a house is being “long” on the local labor market. What this is suggesting is that labor markets (i.e. salaries) in general have not kept pace with inflation and higher interest rates.

Re: Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

#44
post #13
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it was 2% in the soviet union

Ah yea, it looks like that's true. I didn't calculate the actual percentages, but it was very low. Thanks for the heads up - > Demand for housing also remains heavy because Soviet rents, heavily subsidized by the Government, are very low. A modest two‐room apartment will en for 6 to 8 rubles ($8 to $11.30) a month, including some utilities. A four‐room apartment wil rent for 14 to 16 rubles ($18.20 to $22.30). Apartm…

Sure... if you could actually find something to rent, as the article makes clear.

Re: Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

#45
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By 1933 [Social Democrats in Vienna] had built almost 60,000 dwellings, mostly in huge apartment houses... These were built so efficiently that the average cost per apartment was only about $1,650 each; since rent was expected to cover only upkeep and not construction cost (which came from taxes), the average rent was less than $2.00 a month. Thus the poor of Vienna spend only a fraction of their income for rent, les…

> rent was expected to cover only upkeep and not construction cost (which came from taxes) I think he meant non-subsidized rents.

Aka actual rent because subsidy can make rent for some group targetted for special treatment whatever the subsidizer wants. Subsidized rent is a stupid metric. What matters is the broad situation for everybody

Re: Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

#46
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much of the narrative has been that the problem is because nimby boomers won’t allow apartment complexes in single family neighborhoods, there are simply not enough apartments.

We've been rewarding voices who want to lock the gate behind them. They want their area frozen at the moment they moved into their home. What we learned is that those voices are catastrophic for entire classes of people - like new families.

This is oversimplified as an attack on the image of an enemy. Most people work hard as hell to call a place home, and understandably don't want their community "ruined", the definition of which they have variably (un)reasonable metrics for. That's the complicated truth. Yes, people also don't want things to change in general from the moment they called it home, but change isn't the same thing as "ruined".

Re: Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

#47

what's a good way to reconcile this with the common narrative that there's a big housing shortage?

Rents are still too damn high. The shortage will be over when rent is less than 10% of take home pay for a lower class laborer in NYC.

> when rent is less than 10% of take home pay

If that were ever true, people would chose to spend a higher percentage to get a nicer, bigger, or better located place.

Unlike many goods, there is practically no upper bound on what you can spend on housing. You can't buy a better phone for $3000, but you can continue to buy a better home up to $50 million (possibly more).

Re: Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

#48
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it was 2% in the soviet union

Except Soviet Union made you work for near slave wages. I would choose NYC over it 100% of the time.

2% of slave wages is actually even more impressive.

Re: Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

#49
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Still, she added, rents are about 20% higher than pre-pandemic levels, and consumers remain concerned about their financial situation and job security in recent surveys. When people throw around the word shortage what they mean is "availability at a price I'm willing to pay." Same with labor shortages.

That's... the definition of shortage

I think most would imagine it meant low inventory over fixed prices. If you have millions of overpriced widgets, it's not intuitive to call that a widget shortage.

Re: Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply

#50

what's a good way to reconcile this with the common narrative that there's a big housing shortage?

There's a housing shortage in places like California where people aren't allowed to build. There's no housing shortage in places like Austin, Texas where people are allowed to build.

The trouble is that Austin will just become California once those people buy homes, because that's how housing works in the US. It's an investment, and not just any investment, but the primary investment for the middle class. We don't actually want housing prices to come down.
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