President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia • Hacker News Board

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#41

Post by WastingMyTime89 » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 9:42 AM UTC

saiya-jin wrote: post #23

apexalpha wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There is no such thing as "partial mobilization". What do you mean by this? If you have 2 million men available in a full mobilization but call up only 300.000 this seems partial?

They will call them later. 300,000 noobs with minimal training, physique, crappy equipment, low morale and useless aparatchik leaders will be sent to meat grinder of eastern Ukraine. "Nas mnogo" strategy barely worked in WWII, with modern warfare (and continuing western aid) they won't make that much difference. High tech equipment in good numbers is what decides outcomes these days when armies clash. Plus Ukraine ca…

It’s more a political signal sent to the west. Russia was designing the war in Ukraine as a special operation. That put some limits on what they could officially do.

With the referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk, Russia is reframing the conflict as happening on Russian soil. That allows them to declare it a war and open the door to nuclear retaliation.

Mobilising and calling it a proxy war play with this line. It’s basically Russia telling the west they are serious about escalating if they keep pushing.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#42

Post by the_gipsy » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 9:42 AM UTC

_ph_ wrote: post #33

TheWoodsy wrote: post #12

Their main propaganda news channel has already said (incorrectly) that they are already fighting NATO and US troops in the breakaway areas. Is it time to make this a reality? I really don't see it ending without it happening. russia has shown that it has no regard for the suffering of any troops of any nationality. So purely from a population perspective, Ukraine will fail eventually unless they can effectively force…

The Ukraine can do it, if it gets supplied with the weapons to do it. Even with the weapons they got so far, they managed to hurt the Russian military a lot - hence the mobilization. They got some very powerful weapons, but still limited in number and choice. Just delivering long-range ammunition for HIMARS in large numbers might be enough to break any Russian offensive as all supply and all fixed positions were easy…

Doesn't Ukraine have a lot more to lose over time? Russia can just flatten the terrain, or ultimately nuke. The reverse isn't possible.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#43

Post by shusaku » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 9:43 AM UTC

It seems like every piece of news about this war gets buried in an avalanche of “beware propaganda and misinformation” caveats. But I suppose at this point it is safe to say this has gone quite poorly for Russia so far.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#44

Post by deelly » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 9:44 AM UTC

the_gipsy wrote: post #42

_ph_ wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ukraine can do it, if it gets supplied with the weapons to do it. Even with the weapons they got so far, they managed to hurt the Russian military a lot - hence the mobilization. They got some very powerful weapons, but still limited in number and choice. Just delivering long-range ammunition for HIMARS in large numbers might be enough to break any Russian offensive as all supply and all fixed positions were easy…

Doesn't Ukraine have a lot more to lose over time? Russia can just flatten the terrain, or ultimately nuke. The reverse isn't possible.

And?

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#45

Post by somedude895 » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 9:45 AM UTC

yodsanklai wrote: post #13

Stupid question, but what does Putin want exactly? what will end the war?

At first the aim was to overthrow the Western-oriented government and install a puppet government in Ukraine. Then he realized Ukrainians didn't actually want that and were willing and able to fight back. So now he's basically looking for anything he can reasonably sell as a success to his own populace to be able to end the war as soon as possible. Annexing more of Ukraine, especially the Donbass, is one such thing. The problem is that Ukraine isn't just going to roll with that, plus sanctions will only increase, again leading to further economic decline. He really can't win anymore. Only face-saving options are becoming a second Iran / North Korea, or a Chinese vassal.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#46

Post by hoseja » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 9:45 AM UTC

rozab wrote: post #34

globalise83 wrote: post #24

Personally I believe that NATO should occupy the whole of Western Ukraine up to about 100km from the frontline, with a clear warning that any direct fire on NATO troops will result in retaliation. This will free up the Ukrainians to fight Russia on the frontline without worries about Belarus etc.

do you know what occupy means

Be present somewhere. What you're thinking of is a derived meaning, because usually the presence is facilitated by use of force.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#47

Post by belorn » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 9:45 AM UTC

TheWoodsy wrote: post #12

Their main propaganda news channel has already said (incorrectly) that they are already fighting NATO and US troops in the breakaway areas. Is it time to make this a reality? I really don't see it ending without it happening. russia has shown that it has no regard for the suffering of any troops of any nationality. So purely from a population perspective, Ukraine will fail eventually unless they can effectively force…

> Ukraine will fail eventually unless they can effectively force-multiply like we've never seen in any other armed conflict.

If I look at other conflicts, especially in the middle east, population numbers aren't everything. Occupying a territory cost money and people the longer it last unless the occupation is willing to commit genocide and eradicate everyone who lives there. Ukraine is also a very large country, and even with the goal of lebensraum, it will take time for Russia to move Russians settlers over there so that they don't need to spread their military to uphold control over all the land. Ukraine on the other hand can focus their military on the conflict border without needing to keep troops behind to prevent insurgence.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#48

Post by _V_ » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 9:45 AM UTC

threatofrain wrote: post #30

_V_ wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd guess that this will end much sooner than it will come to pure population numbers on RUS/UA side of things. But the prospect of full blown WW3 is now much more real than it was a month ago, that's for sure.

World war? Between what systems of alliance? Does China want to stand with Russia? Esp. if nukes fly as Russia has threatened, what nation will ally themselves with Russia in a full-scale global conflict?

If I had to guess (and I'm really hoping that I'm wrong) I'd say that RUS will use small tactical nuclear weapons on UA which will trigger NATO response. Either direct on indirect but with such impact that it will not matter so RUS will escalate the conflict with NATO.

China is a question but I'd say that noone is benefiting from WW3 apart from perhaps military industry. So I don't really believe China will be too happy because they have a lot going on internally and they don't really need aditional problems that RUS will inevitably cause them.

But as I said: I really hope that time will prove me wrong.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#49

Post by KptMarchewa » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 9:45 AM UTC

ralphhughes wrote: post #27

TheWoodsy wrote: post #12

Their main propaganda news channel has already said (incorrectly) that they are already fighting NATO and US troops in the breakaway areas. Is it time to make this a reality? I really don't see it ending without it happening. russia has shown that it has no regard for the suffering of any troops of any nationality. So purely from a population perspective, Ukraine will fail eventually unless they can effectively force…

>Their main propaganda news channel has already said (incorrectly) that they are already fighting NATO and US troops in the breakaway areas. Thats interesting, I'm not doubting you but I would like to see the original source if possible, got a link?

Julia Davis tracks russian media. One of the examples of that is here:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/157165441023281152...

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#50

Post by koonsolo » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 9:45 AM UTC

TheWoodsy wrote: post #12

Their main propaganda news channel has already said (incorrectly) that they are already fighting NATO and US troops in the breakaway areas. Is it time to make this a reality? I really don't see it ending without it happening. russia has shown that it has no regard for the suffering of any troops of any nationality. So purely from a population perspective, Ukraine will fail eventually unless they can effectively force…

Russians are very inconsistent in their lying. On one hand they say they are already fighting NATO troops, and on the other hand they say that NATO needs to stay away else they will use all means possible.

I was in favour that NATO would secure the skies, but that is now too late I guess.

Ukraine didn't even receive the latest and best equipment such as battle tanks. Once they receive those (I'm confident they will), it will make it easier for them to retake land.