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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#391

Post by lesuorac »

xracy wrote: post #356
lesuorac wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to lookup what your index fund is. They all have always had different inclusion rules and they may or might not have changed theirs recent to try to include SpaceX.

I think I'm looking at general "retirement funds" which are a little more opaque. e.g. Vanguard/TD retirement funds, when I looked into them, didn't have any information on "what is in them." Just general breakdowns.

Yeah it's not fun.

Vanguard offers a bunch of ETFs so I can't exactly give you a solid answer.

One of their specific etfs (VTI) tracks the CRSP US Total Market index [1] which has its methodology described here [2] and looking at the "CRSP INVESTABILITY SCREEN SUMMARY" it sounds to me like SpaceX would be added to VTI after 5 days ("Seasoning of New Securities - 5 days or greater if satisfying the fast-track IPO rules".

[1]: "The Fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the CRSP US Total Market Index (the “Target Index”), which represents 100% of the investable U.S. stock market," https://personal1.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/sp970.pdf

[2]: https://www.crsp.org/wp-content/uploads/guides/CRSP_Market_I...

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#392

Post by sunnybeetroot »

vinnymac wrote: post #329
radicalbyte wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google was easily 10x better than any of their competition. It was effectively alone in the market. Most of us were using 56k modems to access the internet back then, Google's search returned results within a couple of seconds. Yahoo, Lycos, Excite, Alta-Vista were still loading. Then the search results themselves were so good you could often just pick the first result. They eventually added a button which just took…

Curious, why do you say that as if the "I'm Feeling Lucky" button isn't still on the homepage in 2026?

Because it’s not there on mobile

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#393

Post by WarmWash »

ponector wrote: post #336
WarmWash wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe has been slowly committing economic suicide for the last 30 years by outsourcing everything to the US and China (and Russia), and it looks like maybe Europeans are finally starting to wake up to this. I wouldn't be one bit surprised if a rash of digital sovereignty movements in the near future hamper Chinese model adoption.

And yet average European citizen have a longer life with higher quality of living than US.

Burning furniture will in fact keep you warm, and if you can do it long enough, your kids will wonder why others toil with trees and axes so much.

The downside of course, is that it is much much harder to go back to chopping wood once that furniture is all gone. Especially if all you ever knew was burning furniture.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#394

Post by nothercastle »

EugeneG wrote: post #260
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

Reminds me of this... During Apple's 1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO), Massachusetts regulators banned residents from purchasing the stock. The state's securities regulators deemed the offering "too risky" and "over-valued," enforcing a state rule that prohibited IPOs with a price exceeding 25 times earnings.

Apple was a pretty crappy stock till the late 90s so you would have had to wait almost 2 decades to make decent money

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#395

Post by Eufrat »

kenyuz wrote: post #11

Every post anthropic generates feels like misdirection and bad summarization using AI. There is no sense of who the audience for this post is for and includes a lot of redundant information.

The motivation for such a terse thing is pretty obvious given the way they’ve generally announced things. It’s drumming up interest with as much vagueness as possible.

It’s a classic tactic. If you are unable to show real data (why?), then just give as little information as possible so that people can just fill in the gaps based on their own biases.

I mean, look at the way Mythos was announced…too dangerous to release outside of select customers, but they’ve announced they’re adding Mythos capabilities now, so I guess the danger has passed? What changed? What risk mitigations have taken place?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#396

Post by nothercastle »

qznc wrote: post #229
arrowleaf wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most (all?) 401k plans limit you to a pre-picked list of ETFs and mutual funds you can invest in. Not to mention the standard advice for decades has been 'broad market index fund'.

Afaik this is the first time that an IPO is big that it immediately gets a significant share of a broad market index fund. The rules among the providers are actually quite diverse, so it's complicated. The Rational Reminder podcast discussed it in April: https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/406 Their conclusion: It might be bad, but so be it. No need to change strategy.

The episode was excellent

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#397

Post by claudenm »

pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

I don’t think your first sentence is true. The hyperscalers have spent north of 1 trillion in the capex boom as a direct response to AI demand, If you’re a retail investor, you’re already quite exposed.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#398

Post by EvgeniyZh »

panarky wrote: post #224
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

I don't see how they can keep their margins with all the pressure from Chinise models. It got to be race to the bottom on margins.

They (together with OpenAI and maybe Google) can have better margins on frontier models, but the demand on those got to be much lower

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#399

Post by nostrademons »

gizajob wrote: post #364
nostrademons wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If people actually dumped index funds for cash en masse it would be catastrophic. To attach some numbers, MSFT averages about 35M shares in daily volume, and that includes all the market makers, HFTs, etc. BlackRock (iShares) owns 593M shares of MSFT and Vanguard owns another 482M. Together, the amount of shares that index funds own is about a month and a half of total trading volumes. I'd bet that such a crash would…

If you hit sell on a vanguard ETF and it sells on the market, then Vanguard isn’t the buyer is it? So in that situation with everyone dumping ETFs there would be a lag on the time taken for the ETF to sell and Vanguard to then dump the stocks back out in the market. It’s never occurred to me the situation where huge numbers of people dump index funds and how Vanguard/Blackrock account for that without becoming bag ho…

If it's an ETF it's a little complicated. The usual mechanism for selling an ETF is that there's a buyer on the other end who's buying shares in the ETF itself, not the constituent stocks. Arbitrage keeps the price in line with the index constituents; if the ETF diverges from its constituent assets, some HFT can buy the ETF and sell the constituents and that will force them to converge.

However, most ETFs are also setup such that they can create or destroy shares in response to large shifts in demand. In this case, if enough people hit sell, the ETF itself will buy back shares and use the proceeds to sell the underlying assets, in a transaction that mechanically should be market-neutral and just propagate the supply/demand of the fund down to the individual stocks.

With Vanguard specifically, it's even more complicated, because VTI is not a separate ETF. It's a share class of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. But the mechanism is largely the same - it has the same Authorized Participant system to mint new shares in case of high demand and redeem shares if everybody sells, and then passes these requests on to the underlying mutual fund, which can then piggyback on some of the tax efficiency benefits of the ETF.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#400

Post by lmeyerov »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #316
lmeyerov wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mostly by having a pulse for the last 10-20 years as someone in the bay area seeing it repeatedly play out as tech IPOs get dumped onto retail investors repeatedly, including the 'good' ones. Being lucky enough to participate in IPOs makes you check these wrt when to balance IPO pop exit (weeks/months) vs long-term tax benefits of holding (2yr+). - The initial pop is known to be manufactured by banks, so mostly benef…

Almost every retail investor has a random vibe like this about a market-timing hypothesis. They’re pretty much all cocktail conversation at best. Lock-up expiry is a real effect. Everything else you mention is Reddit stuff—trading the pop is practically a gamble.

? Very much agreed, the IPO pop is a manufactured pricing event focused on investor dynamics rather than direct fair market pricing, making it more of a gamble than normal. Including gambles in index funds defeats the point.

Maybe the confusing point was my involvement is (discounted) pre-IPO shares, which almost by definition, is not an activity accessible to retail investors.

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