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Europe's Vaccine Disaster

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Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#391

Post by Throwawayaerlei »

thetis wrote: post #372
Throwawayaerlei wrote: post #50

Some had faith in the new mRNA technology, while others preferred to rely on more time-tested methods. Sometimes articles hide a great deal in one seemingly innocuous sentence. From what I've learned from Europeans, there's only one vaccine candidate of that nature the EU considered, a Sanofi Pasteur/GlaxoSmithKline combo, the former providing the infamous spike protein, the latter an adjuvant. Everyone expected this…

I just have been sollicitated to test the Janssen/Johnson and Johnson. Seems that it is still in Phase III in Western Europe. I'm not 100% sure to want to participate, split between: ok there is enough vaccine i'll be vaccinated in 3m OR OK i need to do this because we need more vaccines.

Janssen has finished recruiting for their 1 dose Phase III trial, but is still doing that for their 2 doses 8 weeks apart trials, this huge one https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948 and this small one in the US and Belgium https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04436276 There reporting on their one dose trial's efficacy results is pretty good, about what I expected, so if this gets you that one first dose ASAP its seriously worth considering. It's also a relatively mature platform, used previously for their Ebola vaccine which passed an European Phase III trial, but wasn't the earlier one that made such a difference in the last outbreak.

The other vaccines you might get are less mature platforms, AZ/Oxford 2 doses 21 days apart has less efficacy than Janssen's 1 dose (Oxford had not before 2020 ever tried testing their platform on more than 40 people at a time), the mRNA vaccines I'm sure you've heard all about, but I wouldn't make any bets on when Pfizer will be able to provide you a dose from their currently? closed Belgium plant.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#392

Post by monopoledance »

pelasaco wrote: post #386
monopoledance wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CDU is also the worst for trying to enforce their German politics through EU law. I am pro-EU, but I think the authoritarian countries (Poland, Hungary) need to be kicked out or at least punished. The EU states are too diverse right now in terms of values and economy. Hard to effectively lead such a bunch. I wish countries would send their best to the EU. We could get shit done. (tho, overall I am very happy with…

EU need those countries mainly because of cheap workforce, army and to create this buffer between Central Europe and Russia. EU cannot afford to loose the 8th strongest army of Europe and have it potentially getting aligned with Russia. It would be a disaster for Germany, to have Poland as enemy right now and have them doing military exercises together with Russia some km from the Germany/Poland border. Yes, Poland h…

> EU cannot afford to loose the 8th strongest army of Europe and have it potentially getting aligned with Russia.

I very much doubt Poland would align with Russia. They hate them since forever. Poland should be given the choice to play by the law and value human rights or see what nationalism is worth without the EU. They won't leave. They will follow. They have much, much more to lose.

> EU need those countries mainly because of cheap workforce

Who "needs" what? Exploiting cheap labor from Poland only works for Germany, because legal working standards and payment is allowing for this. German people would benefit too, if general exploitation was fought against.

If we tax industries according to their societal, environmental or climate damge, e.g. carbon tax, we can redefine our "dependencies". We don't need cheap farm workers, if we cut the meat industry; we would have much, much, much less demand in labor, land and energy, going for a mostly plant-based food production. Mass meat production is only viable because it's subsidized by the government and it's environmental/climate impact collectivized.

The industry needs cheap workforce. Capitalism needs a cheap workforce. Economic growth and exploitation of natural ressources needs a cheap workforce.

If we want to survive the shitshow ahead, a lot of things need to change. Compromising with populism and cultural degeneration is contra-productive.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#393

Post by Throwawayaerlei »

neximo64 wrote: post #128
Throwawayaerlei wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you be more specific? I'm happy to drill down to the individual Phase III trial protocols, but want to know which ones you're referring to. Plus I'm pretty sure I left myself a lot of wiggle room with efficacy claims like "very good" and "OK."

Some of the efficacy methods involved you saying you're sick and then getting tested (Pf/Mod). Others were you were swabbed weekly (thereby catching asymptomatic infections (AZ)). So the efficacy rates between the bunch aren't apples to apples comparisons. AZ has an understated efficacy rate, so it's better than 'OK'. It explains Jansens efficacy being broken down up to the number of hospitalisations (where it reduce…

AZ has an understated efficacy rate, so it's better than 'OK'.

Maybe, but their and Oxford's testing has been such a mess, with more than one lie promulgated by AZ in public claims (the blended efficacy based on an appalling Oxford mistake that suggested a better dosing that later didn't pan out), that I don't have much confidence in their current Phase III claims. Which date back to early December and haven't been publicly updated. Those are based on 4 trials in different countries, less than 6,000 each for the official 21 day apart dosing and a 70% efficacy claim.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#394

Post by pelasaco »

monopoledance wrote: post #390
pelasaco wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

kicking out Poland, means isolating Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and at the same time, giving a freeway from Moscow to Russia. It would be a bad move thinking from the geopolitics point of view.

I am sure Poland realizes how much it benefits from EU membership. Let those nationalist parties have their nationalism, or stop violating human rights. The EU could argue open and strong: Have it your way, or play for the collective. Don't let them use populist interpretations, confront them transparently. What's Poland without the EU? They don't have the economy to even fade like the UK. They would lose everything.…

> What's Poland without the EU? They don't have the economy to even fade like the UK. They would lose everything.

That's the typical arrogance from a west germans. Poland was already a country before EU and I don't remember in the history an non-authoritarian Poland. So that's how they are. So is Turkey and so many other European countries or partners. To ask for a diverse Germany, but try to kick out countries that don't really buy the German vision, is at least contradictory.

> Mind you, I am advocating for the enforcement of human rights and social progression, nothing more.

No you are not not. You are just repeating the other spectrum of populism. You and Poland are just different sides of the same coin.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#395

Post by monopoledance »

pelasaco wrote: post #394
monopoledance wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am sure Poland realizes how much it benefits from EU membership. Let those nationalist parties have their nationalism, or stop violating human rights. The EU could argue open and strong: Have it your way, or play for the collective. Don't let them use populist interpretations, confront them transparently. What's Poland without the EU? They don't have the economy to even fade like the UK. They would lose everything.…

> What's Poland without the EU? They don't have the economy to even fade like the UK. They would lose everything. That's the typical arrogance from a west germans. Poland was already a country before EU and I don't remember in the history an non-authoritarian Poland. So that's how they are. So is Turkey and so many other European countries or partners. To ask for a diverse Germany, but try to kick out countries that…

If you think e.g. the anti-LGBT situation, or women's bodily autonomy in Poland is "just another opinion", we really do not need to talk further indeed. As I said, it's about human rights and there is no room for debate.

Sure Turkey and Poland and so on were countries before. And they will be without the EU, no doubt. Being a country does not imply having strong, independent economies. Both Poland and Turkey play their geopolitical role against the EU. They wouldn't have to, if there was much else for them rely on, no? You think Poland would fare better than the UK? You think the EU would talk to Turkey, if Turkey wasn't conveniently dealing with those refugees? Have you talked to a person from Turkey recently? They aren't exactly happy with what they got.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#396

Post by pelasaco »

monopoledance wrote: post #392
pelasaco wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU need those countries mainly because of cheap workforce, army and to create this buffer between Central Europe and Russia. EU cannot afford to loose the 8th strongest army of Europe and have it potentially getting aligned with Russia. It would be a disaster for Germany, to have Poland as enemy right now and have them doing military exercises together with Russia some km from the Germany/Poland border. Yes, Poland h…

> EU cannot afford to loose the 8th strongest army of Europe and have it potentially getting aligned with Russia. I very much doubt Poland would align with Russia. They hate them since forever. Poland should be given the choice to play by the law and value human rights or see what nationalism is worth without the EU. They won't leave. They will follow. They have much, much more to lose. > EU need those countries main…

> I very much doubt Poland would align with Russia. They hate them since forever.

Germany and France were eternal enemies too. Now we cannot imagine Europe without both countries. If we kick Poland out of EU, the anti-EU sentiment will grow and Russia will be the only available partner in the region. At the same time Poland will have a strategic card in their hand. So they will do what they have to do.

Look the numbers look like:

"Intra-EU trade accounts for 80% of Poland’s exports (Germany 28%, Czechia and France both 6%), while outside the EU 3% go to both Russia and the United States.

In terms of imports, 69% come from EU Member States (Germany 27%, the Netherlands 6% and Italy 5%), while outside the EU 8% come from China and 7% from Russia."

So if EU kicks Poland out, who are going to be the next partners?

> Who "needs" what? Exploiting cheap labor from Poland only works for Germany, because legal working standards and payment is allowing for this. German people would benefit too, if general exploitation was fought against.

That's just populism.

> The industry needs cheap workforce. Capitalism needs a cheap workforce. Economic growth and exploitation of natural ressources needs a cheap workforce. > If we want to survive the shitshow ahead, a lot of things need to change. Compromising with populism and cultural degeneration is contra-productive.

That's just populism too.

So IMO, you want to fight populism with populism and fight for diversity, killing the cultural diversity in Europe.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#397

Post by pelasaco »

monopoledance wrote: post #395
pelasaco wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's Poland without the EU? They don't have the economy to even fade like the UK. They would lose everything. That's the typical arrogance from a west germans. Poland was already a country before EU and I don't remember in the history an non-authoritarian Poland. So that's how they are. So is Turkey and so many other European countries or partners. To ask for a diverse Germany, but try to kick out countries that…

If you think e.g. the anti-LGBT situation, or women's bodily autonomy in Poland is "just another opinion", we really do not need to talk further indeed. As I said, it's about human rights and there is no room for debate. Sure Turkey and Poland and so on were countries before. And they will be without the EU, no doubt. Being a country does not imply having strong, independent economies. Both Poland and Turkey play the…

And do you think that kicking Poland out of EU will make the life of the LGBT community and the abortion rights better there? The only way to help the communities there is to have the border open between both countries and offer assistance in Germany (as we do already, just not now, because of COVID-19). Sorry, your cancel culture won't fix any problem in the World.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#398

Post by pavelrub »

HugoDaniel wrote: post #378
oli5679 wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your article is blocked for me because I'm not a subscriber. I read this one, and Pfizer use of Israel medical data seems reasonable to me although worth being cautious about this type of thing. There are other examples (UK, US, UAE) that are not taking this data sharing approach and it didn't hinder the process. This doesn't seem too related to EU vaccine woes to me. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.haaretz.com/amp/…

Here is the title of the article you couldn't read: "Israel moves to head of vaccine queue, offering Pfizer access to country’s health-care database" Guess who stayed bellow on the vaccine queue?

You should stop spreading misinformation. The agreement Israel signed doesn't allow Pfizer any access to the "country's health-care database". That's complete nonsense. Nor is there anything even remotely "shady" or "undemocratic" about it.

Israel will provide Pfizer daily aggregate data that contains no identifiable health information (as defined by the Israeli Patient’s Rights Law), or any data that may result in the identification of individuals.

The signed agreement is publicly available, is under the oversight of Israel's Helsinki committee, and is in full compliance with Israeli law. Any citizen who believes their rights are being infringed upon, can petition to the Supreme Court of Israel.

The reason Israel was able to reach such an agreement, and the EU wasn't, is because Israel, given enough vaccines, will be able to vaccinate its entire adult population by the end of March, whereas the EU isn't even close to having such capacity, regardless of vaccine access.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#399

Post by partiallypro »

freeflight wrote: post #117
partiallypro wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany's death rate since the fall is higher than the US though. The US largely bungled the initial response, where as Europe seems to have bungled the ongoing problem.

> Germany's death rate since the fall is higher than the US though. That is, if you actually trust the latest data coming out of the US, which could be a very misleading thing to do [0] [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-cor...

I do trust the latest data coming out of the US. Why wouldn't I? Even if the CDC no longer counts cases (which I think this was reversed) you'd have to say thousands upon thousands of nurses/doctors/hospitals were all lying and pro-Trump, which is conspiratorial nonsense.

Case counts in every country are likely under-counted, but the death rates relative to counted cases is likely very accurate.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#400

Post by monopoledance »

pelasaco wrote: post #396
monopoledance wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> EU cannot afford to loose the 8th strongest army of Europe and have it potentially getting aligned with Russia. I very much doubt Poland would align with Russia. They hate them since forever. Poland should be given the choice to play by the law and value human rights or see what nationalism is worth without the EU. They won't leave. They will follow. They have much, much more to lose. > EU need those countries main…

> I very much doubt Poland would align with Russia. They hate them since forever. Germany and France were eternal enemies too. Now we cannot imagine Europe without both countries. If we kick Poland out of EU, the anti-EU sentiment will grow and Russia will be the only available partner in the region. At the same time Poland will have a strategic card in their hand. So they will do what they have to do. Look the numbe…

I am not advocating for "kicking poland out", but giving it a choice or rather impose penalties for it feasting on the imagery of EU as enemy and shit. Membership comes with rules Poland isn't following. Either get in line or get out.

I am saying it's in Poland's interest to play along.

Hungary on the other hand is probably fucked beyond at this point.

> So IMO, you want to fight populism with populism and fight for diversity, killing the cultural diversity in Europe.

You mean the cultural diversity of authoritarianism, workers exploitation and human rights violations? Yes, I would like to kill that.

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