Europe's Vaccine Disaster • Hacker News Board

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#381

Post by beagle3 » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 4:16 PM UTC

yyyk wrote: post #375

tsimionescu wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main point that beagle3 makes is that the Pfizer study actually shows ~89% efficacy starting 12 days after the first dose, which improves to ~90% immediately after the 2nd dose (day 21) and ~95% 7 days later (day 28). The Maccabi study was designed with this comparison in mind: they look at efficacy in days 1-12 and 13-24 after the first dose. They are mainly interested in comparing the Pfizer results for days 13…

You are correct, but this doesn't show a conspiracy like a certain other commenter hints at. We always knew that the the Pfizer vaccine has a lower chance of preventing transmissions, the original treatment regime was two doses, and we further know that the Pfizer vaccine wasn't originally tested vs B117 and the other mutations and it's quite possible it has lower efficiency vs those. Still, there's a good chance two…

No, it doesn’t show a conspiracy.

The political rather than medical decision making in Israel is out in the open, there’s no need for conspiracies.

It took @RanBalicer 3 days to acknowledge the abysmal data, and it was not “gee, we might have made a mistake in the model”, it’s always “an unexpected twist in the mutation/behaviour/population”. It is beyond embarrassing. But I digress.

Let’s just agree that the 95% RRR for “reported mild symptoms” is meaningless, and that the 50% number from Maccabi is actually good news, and we should use that number in models and predictions?

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#382

Post by petre » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 4:17 PM UTC

mikem170 wrote: post #351

petre wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just take a look at Reuters' stats page. It's easy now as we have just passed 100m infections with 2m deaths. That amounts to 2 dead out of every 100, globally. https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m... Death rate is 0.16% in the US though.

I was relating the number who died in the U.S. versus the total population, calculated from published deaths per million per country [0] The link you provided says that 2.2 million people globally reportedly have died of covid. Out of world's population of 7.8 billion that amounts to 1 out of 3545 people who have died, or 0.028%. I wonder if a lot of people have misconceptions about their odds of dying from covid, gi…

One can't die of a disease without contacting it first, can they?

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#383

Post by HugoDaniel » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 4:18 PM UTC

oli5679 wrote: post #360

HugoDaniel wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a coordinated effort, a fair comparison needs to at least take that into consideration. Even so: Why are you comparing "today" EU numbers with those of countries that started a one or two months earlier? If so, what makes you think that is a fair comparison (even disregarding the cost of the coordinated effort)? Can we compare "today" EU numbers with those of countries that have just started vaccinations? Would t…

No, the governments learned of Covid at the same time. There was no law of nature constraining the EU to start later, or compelling US and UK to start earlier. Normally, it makes sense to do this. Negotiate price, avoid hassle of repeated procurement energy, wait until you have more certainty about trial results and manufacturing process. This situation was a national disaster, not a normal procurement exercise. The…

EU is not a country.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#384

Post by oli5679 » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 4:31 PM UTC

HugoDaniel wrote: post #378

oli5679 wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your article is blocked for me because I'm not a subscriber. I read this one, and Pfizer use of Israel medical data seems reasonable to me although worth being cautious about this type of thing. There are other examples (UK, US, UAE) that are not taking this data sharing approach and it didn't hinder the process. This doesn't seem too related to EU vaccine woes to me. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.haaretz.com/amp/…

Here is the title of the article you couldn't read: "Israel moves to head of vaccine queue, offering Pfizer access to country’s health-care database" Guess who stayed bellow on the vaccine queue?

From the press reporting it seems that the EU was the source of delay. UK and US had no data sharing. The Israeli data sharing is because both parties want more granular information on the vaccine's effictiveness over time and by age and other health demographics. It has nothing to do with the speed at which the delivery was agreed, as evidenced by the numerous other agreements signed without such programs with US and UK.

"Meanwhile, the Commission’s negotiations with producers of mRNA vaccines were dragging on. COVID-19 didn’t just lend urgency to the negotiations: Talks were held virtually, adding an intangible complication. Austria’s Clemens Martin Auer, the chair of the member country steering board for the negotiations, remarked in late August that he had still never actually met Gallina in person — though he was by then a committed fan.

Talks with American companies, especially Pfizer and Moderna, proved especially thorny: Both reopened aspects of the contracts that had already been determined when the companies, in the view of the Commission official close to the negotiations, thought they had a bit more leverage."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/europe-...

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#385

Post by oli5679 » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 4:37 PM UTC

HugoDaniel wrote: post #383

oli5679 wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the governments learned of Covid at the same time. There was no law of nature constraining the EU to start later, or compelling US and UK to start earlier. Normally, it makes sense to do this. Negotiate price, avoid hassle of repeated procurement energy, wait until you have more certainty about trial results and manufacturing process. This situation was a national disaster, not a normal procurement exercise. The…

EU is not a country.

It's a government that was tasked with procuring vaccines, and has done a worse job.

I don't see any inherent constraint preventing them for agreeing contacts under the same terms, approving vaccines reviewing the same analysis and distributing using the same logistical processes as the UK and USA.

They had the same information and access to funds as other programs, and failed to effectively prepare and execute an adequate plan.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#386

Post by pelasaco » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

monopoledance wrote: post #363

pelasaco wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

thats true. At least in Germany, you are just sent to the EU Parlament if you re not performing well in the country level.

The CDU is also the worst for trying to enforce their German politics through EU law. I am pro-EU, but I think the authoritarian countries (Poland, Hungary) need to be kicked out or at least punished. The EU states are too diverse right now in terms of values and economy. Hard to effectively lead such a bunch. I wish countries would send their best to the EU. We could get shit done. (tho, overall I am very happy with…

EU need those countries mainly because of cheap workforce, army and to create this buffer between Central Europe and Russia.

EU cannot afford to loose the 8th strongest army of Europe and have it potentially getting aligned with Russia. It would be a disaster for Germany, to have Poland as enemy right now and have them doing military exercises together with Russia some km from the Germany/Poland border. Yes, Poland has a strong aversion to Russia, but being kicked out from EU, would force them to search for new partners, and Poland, together with Belarus, would open a tunnel from Moscow to Berlin. Germany dont want it. Russia would do everything to have it.

Another point is that a lot of sectors in Germany depends heavily on Polish workforce, specially in the border region like Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg Vorpommern.

> The EU states are too diverse right now in terms of > values and economy. Hard to effectively lead such a bunch.

That´s exactly one of the main complains from Hungary and Poland, regarding migration. A diverse country in terms of values is hard to lead. So in that matters you are pretty well aligned with them.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#387

Post by yyyk » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 4:50 PM UTC

beagle3 wrote: post #381

yyyk wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are correct, but this doesn't show a conspiracy like a certain other commenter hints at. We always knew that the the Pfizer vaccine has a lower chance of preventing transmissions, the original treatment regime was two doses, and we further know that the Pfizer vaccine wasn't originally tested vs B117 and the other mutations and it's quite possible it has lower efficiency vs those. Still, there's a good chance two…

No, it doesn’t show a conspiracy. The political rather than medical decision making in Israel is out in the open, there’s no need for conspiracies. It took @RanBalicer 3 days to acknowledge the abysmal data, and it was not “gee, we might have made a mistake in the model”, it’s always “an unexpected twist in the mutation/behaviour/population”. It is beyond embarrassing. But I digress. Let’s just agree that the 95% RRR…

I don't have an anti for Balicer, so I don't care if his models are right-or-wrong. It's natural to have mistakes, and changing position after 'only' 3 days is fine enough. I also agree that we heard some good news, but I do think that the 95% RRR is relevant - people who have a strong enough immune reaction to make the disease asymptomatic are people who have been protected. Once enough people have been protected, than hospital burden will go down and Israel could manage this thing.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#388

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 4:55 PM UTC

beagle3 wrote: post #381

yyyk wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are correct, but this doesn't show a conspiracy like a certain other commenter hints at. We always knew that the the Pfizer vaccine has a lower chance of preventing transmissions, the original treatment regime was two doses, and we further know that the Pfizer vaccine wasn't originally tested vs B117 and the other mutations and it's quite possible it has lower efficiency vs those. Still, there's a good chance two…

No, it doesn’t show a conspiracy. The political rather than medical decision making in Israel is out in the open, there’s no need for conspiracies. It took @RanBalicer 3 days to acknowledge the abysmal data, and it was not “gee, we might have made a mistake in the model”, it’s always “an unexpected twist in the mutation/behaviour/population”. It is beyond embarrassing. But I digress. Let’s just agree that the 95% RRR…

[deleted]

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#389

Post by pelasaco » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 5:03 PM UTC

monopoledance wrote: post #363

pelasaco wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

thats true. At least in Germany, you are just sent to the EU Parlament if you re not performing well in the country level.

The CDU is also the worst for trying to enforce their German politics through EU law. I am pro-EU, but I think the authoritarian countries (Poland, Hungary) need to be kicked out or at least punished. The EU states are too diverse right now in terms of values and economy. Hard to effectively lead such a bunch. I wish countries would send their best to the EU. We could get shit done. (tho, overall I am very happy with…

kicking out Poland, means isolating Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and at the same time, giving a freeway from Moscow to Russia. It would be a bad move thinking from the geopolitics point of view.

Re: Europe's Vaccine Disaster

#390

Post by monopoledance » Sat, Jan 30, 2021, 5:19 PM UTC

pelasaco wrote: post #389

monopoledance wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CDU is also the worst for trying to enforce their German politics through EU law. I am pro-EU, but I think the authoritarian countries (Poland, Hungary) need to be kicked out or at least punished. The EU states are too diverse right now in terms of values and economy. Hard to effectively lead such a bunch. I wish countries would send their best to the EU. We could get shit done. (tho, overall I am very happy with…

kicking out Poland, means isolating Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and at the same time, giving a freeway from Moscow to Russia. It would be a bad move thinking from the geopolitics point of view.

I am sure Poland realizes how much it benefits from EU membership. Let those nationalist parties have their nationalism, or stop violating human rights. The EU could argue open and strong: Have it your way, or play for the collective. Don't let them use populist interpretations, confront them transparently.

What's Poland without the EU? They don't have the economy to even fade like the UK. They would lose everything.

We don't have to endure their shit, their nationalistic, misogynist and homophobic populism in the EU politics.

Sure we depend on them geopolitically, but so do they. They are afraid of Russia much more than the rest of the EU. And they are nothing without the EU economy.

Mind you, I am advocating for the enforcement of human rights and social progression, nothing more.