Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

metaculus.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

381–390 of 419 posts

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#381

Post by mlindner »

axiosgunnar wrote: post #300
kspacewalk2 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Ukrainian whose relatives are being bombed and whose friends are currently enlisted - I sure hope they won't consider that at all. The only actions performed outside the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine should be in aid of stopping the invasion of Ukraine. Bombing troops and launch sites - yes. Attacking Russian servicemen wherever they can be reached - yes. Occupying even an inch of Russia - hell n…

> and it won't end ASAP if Russians suddenly have a non-absurd reason to defend their land. This is an important point. This is why we should keep reiterating to the Russian people that the sanctions are not to spite them and will be revoked immediately if Putin is gone.

They won't be revoked if the attitude doesn't change. If Putin is just replaced by another person like him (there are several) then that doesn't help things.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#382

Post by dustypotato »

pmoriarty wrote: post #160
user3939382 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you are conflating media and social media https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/ukraine-soldie... https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-snake-island-soldiers-russi... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-sold... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/russia-ukrai... I could go on, but you get the point. These were definitely fake stories propagated by the western media as part of thei…

Every one of the stories you link make it clear that the reports came from Ukranian sources. Nowhere in these stories do the news outlets claim that the Ukranian reports were independently verified. So I'm not sure what you're complaining about. These news outlets are reporting what Ukranian sources say, just as they report what Russian sources say.

In the first few sentences, they mention these things as facts. And maybe at the fifth or so, it's mentioned that "Ukrainian media reported". It's clear that they are sourcing it from Ukrainian sources, but they present them as facts too.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#383

Post by Chris2048 »

dcposch wrote: post #101
Chris2048 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if accompanied with guarantees of no further aggressions Which Russia cannot provide since they already promised not to invade.

After how this one went, it seems very unlikely they'd try again unless Ukraine was somehow disarmed first. (Disarmament was one of the Russian asks during yesterday's negotiations. It was rejected ofc.)

It was "unlikely" when Ukraine had the nukes it handed over. Now nothing is unlikely.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#384

Post by ant6n »

mariuolo wrote: post #267
suifbwish wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All Ukraine has to do is: 1. Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. 2. Anyone in their prisons, offer them clemency if they agree to fight (bad idea I know but it works)

> Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. Ukraine is not a wealthy country. Who might consider citizenship so desirable to risk his life over it?

If Ukraine wins, that Ukraine citizenship is gonna be an EU citizenship in a couple of years.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#385

Post by s1artibartfast »

thesmok wrote: post #377
s1artibartfast wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have any evidence of government action so I assume it is voluntary. A simple example is I tried to Google search Ukrainian troop locations last weekend and got zero hits. A number of Wikipedia articles for historic events are also actively being revised

> A simple example is I tried to Google search Ukrainian troop locations last weekend and got zero hits. Starting Feb 24th, every Ukrainian knows to never photograph our troops, never post about location of our troops, and to photograph and post enemy troops as much as possible. That's why you can easily find photos of vehicles marked Z, but it's very hard to find photos of vehicles wearing pixel camo.

That makes sense.

That doest explain why any loosely related information was scraped from the internet from the dawn of time

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#387

Post by jansen555 »

pmoriarty wrote: post #295
mullen wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing. A Nuclear Bluff is just that, a Bluff. Putin can't win in a nuclear war and if he uses nukes anywhere, he is done for. No one is going to have anything to do with him or Russia on any level after that.

"A Nuclear Bluff is just that, a Bluff. Putin can't win in a nuclear war and if he uses nukes anywhere, he is done for." We don't know what he would do. A desperate dictator might just use nukes. There's also the greatly increased risk of accidentally starting a nuclear war -- something we've come close to multiple times, even in peace time. In war time that's just short of WW3, the risk is increased exponentially. N…

No post body was provided.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#388

Post by frankharv »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #351
chii wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whataboutism is heavy. The USA aint no saints, but that doesn't absolve putin's invasion. "They did it first, so we should be allowed" isn't a defensible justification for war.

I'm not absolving anyone. It is a fucked situation. The hypocrisy of people saying they "should have snuffed them out like cockroaches" after 50 years of US atrocities is just astounding. Russia is a bully, but the US is 10x worse. Ukraine is the looser here. The US intentionally played them like a pawn and use their lives to get more leverage against Russia.

I am sorry for the tone of that offensive sentence. Perhaps I should have expressed the feeling in a more diplomatic wording. We did have them against the mat and let them up. Howz that for a PC version. There was cold war and we could have defeated the opponent. Instead we funded them.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#389

Post by [deleted] »

xxpor wrote: post #74
twblalock wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory. They aren't in a no-win scenario either. Kyiv cannot hold out forever. The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage and they can simply wait out the defenders, using that time to fix their supply lines. It's tempting to exaggerate a Russian setback into a total co…

>Kyiv cannot hold out forever. I agree with that, but if it takes going Full Grozny or Idlib on them, what's the point, other than saving face?

[deleted]

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#390

Post by culopatin »

ant6n wrote: post #384
mariuolo wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. Ukraine is not a wealthy country. Who might consider citizenship so desirable to risk his life over it?

If Ukraine wins, that Ukraine citizenship is gonna be an EU citizenship in a couple of years.

Riiiight. Why couldn’t they join the EU before the war if that’s the only thing in their way?
Post reply on HN