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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#71

Post by imwillofficial »

bostonsre wrote: post #64
beepbooptheory wrote: post #57

I just have no confidence that we can really know anything for sure one way or another. The media so far (in the West) ranges from tangibly self-conscious to overt propaganda, much of which is proven false a day later. There is no harm in this in itself, propaganda is as much part of the war as any other part, I get that, but I at this point I wouldn't be surprised that Russia is doing much better than what is being…

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev

Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically

Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#72

Post by DennisP »

babyshake wrote: post #34
rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

Prediction markets for real money that relate to violent outcomes are a very dangerous territory ethically. You could bet the Kyiv will fall and then provide support or resources to the Russian forces, for example. A more practical example would be something like an assassination prediction.

It'd have to be a very liquid market, to make it profitable to provide enough support to make a material difference.

I'm not convinced assassination markets are practical. If you make a prediction that a person will be assassinated on a particular day, and put money on it, you'll make the odds for that day spike up, thus warning the target to take new and unpredictable precautions.

If you try to counter this effect with less specific predictions, then more people will take your side of the bet so you'll get worse odds.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#73

Post by sillysaurusx »

imwillofficial wrote: post #71
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

The nuclear reactor was shelled. I saw it live.

Doubt it had anything to do with radiation though.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#74

Post by xxpor »

twblalock wrote: post #60
InTheArena wrote: post #36

Armies have momentum. Germany almost lost in 1941 when Barbarossa failed. Hitler managed to keep his armies from disintegrating, but it was a near thing. Japan's armies went far further then they had any right too in the same period, because of the perception of invincibility, higher morale, and everyone underestimating them for racial reasons. It's very clear that the Russians badly screwed up their logistics chain…

The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory. They aren't in a no-win scenario either. Kyiv cannot hold out forever. The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage and they can simply wait out the defenders, using that time to fix their supply lines. It's tempting to exaggerate a Russian setback into a total co…

>Kyiv cannot hold out forever.

I agree with that, but if it takes going Full Grozny or Idlib on them, what's the point, other than saving face?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#75

Post by JacobiX »

jquery wrote: post #38
soperj wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them. How long did it take for the US to take Afghanistan?

Iraq was on the other side of the world from us, not next door, and we took that over in a matter of days.

Just to correct the info: the invasion of Iraq (a much weaker country) by the combined force of troops from the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Poland lasted just over one month … but it’s not really comparable situation here for the reasons you pointed.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#76

Post by nugget »

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/thousands of organizations (Governments, NGOs, companies, individuals) to flood Ukraine with every conceivable item they might need to support combat operations. Almost all of the commercially available weapons systems, ammunition, and body armor that we could find was already headed to Ukraine. We decided to focus on battlefield/first responder medical kits and supplies since those items were needed, but hadn't been mobilized as much. "Soldiers win battles, logistics wins wars." I heard that last week and it stuck with me.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#77

Post by alangibson »

nwiswell wrote: post #7
deutschew wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lack of natural barriers, the Ukraine, Belarus lands are flat which means very little places to hide for the insurgency. in Afghanistan the Taliban could hide out in network of caves and there is just no flatten mountains, the Vietcongs could utilize underground networks and dense forests to operate. One hope for Ukraine is urban warfare, Putin launched two miserable wars against Chechnya and they were decimated from…

Yes. The terrain for Ukranian insurgents will simply be civilians. How can you tell who is going to shoot you in the back when you turn around? Unfortunately, we live in a new age and China has perfected facial recognition software, which they will probably have no scruples about providing to Russia. I'm not sure a crowd provides the same kind of anonymity that it once did.

It depends totally on how unified people remain. I don't think facial recognition cameras will last long against crowds that have proven themselves willing to dance on top of enemy tanks.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#78

Post by awb »

imwillofficial wrote: post #71
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

Were these reported by mainstream / reputable sources?

I only saw them on social media.

But I did see a source that radiation did rise around Chernobyl, probably due to dust getting kicked up by vehicles and foot traffic.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#79

Post by jacquesm »

akomtu wrote: post #53

Putin is dumb or desperate (maybe trying to score a quick victory because of some more pressing matters). All he needed to do is to assemble a big enough chunk of his army at the borders, do some maneuvers from time to time, pepper it with threatening rhetoric to keep everyone stressed, but never attack. This "psychological siege" would tank the economy of Ukraine and he could demand progressively bigger concessions.…

Hindsight is ...

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#80

Post by notch656a »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #37
deutschew wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lack of natural barriers, the Ukraine, Belarus lands are flat which means very little places to hide for the insurgency. in Afghanistan the Taliban could hide out in network of caves and there is just no flatten mountains, the Vietcongs could utilize underground networks and dense forests to operate. One hope for Ukraine is urban warfare, Putin launched two miserable wars against Chechnya and they were decimated from…

Ukraine is tundra. Right now it's entering the muddy season. Russia could only possibly even attack using airforce now, because anything on the ground is going to sink. Ironically, Xi telling Putin to wait till the Olympics were over probably cost Putin the war, because of all the abandoned vehicles stuck in the mud. There's a convoy with who knows how many vehicles but it stretches 40 miles and it's never digging ou…

Plot twist, Xi knew that tricking Putin into delaying the invasion would weaken their neighbor, allowing Xi to profit.
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