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Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

probablydance.com

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Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be worthwhile to look at the history of the electoral college [1]. It was not there to balance state powers (that's what the senate is for). It was a compromise between the people who did not want congress to be part of the voting (due to opportunity for corruption) and the ones that did not want a popular vote, because they did not trust the uneducated masses and feared mob rule. So the electoral college wa…

The article and your comment summarizes factions into simply "mob rule", and seem to lead the reader to believe the electoral college wasn't well thought out--just a compromise. While the 3/5ths idea is apalling, using it the way you've done is, in my opinion, done to try and enforce the idea that its fundamentally flawed. The electoral college is designed to balance power. " In The Federalist Papers, James Madison e…

I want to point out that diversity of opinion was celebrated in Federalist 10. The govenment was meant to constrain the power of factions and allow the diversity of people to flourish.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The president’s campaign argued that his supporters weren’t being allowed to monitor the tallying of mail-in ballots, but U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond instead argued the two sides to come to an agreement. Just a note on this; (part of?) the reason Judge Diamond asked the two sides to come to an agreement is because the plaintiffs admitted they already had observers in the room [0]: > During the hearing, a lawye…

And if you continue the colloquy you'll see the problem is the observers in the room were not allowed within several tens of feet of the ballots being counted, this making observation impossible. Hence why the judge ruled to allow observers closer.

> And if you continue the colloquy you'll see the problem is the observers in the room were not allowed within several tens of feet of the ballots being counted, this making observation impossible.

So assuming the motion linked at the top of the Twitter thread is the one the hearing is about, what you say does not appear to be completely correct.

The complaint in the original motion is that the County Board of Elections is "intentionally refusing to allow any representatives and poll watchers for President Trump and the Republican Party," and that "It has been studying the Order [to allow representatives/poll watchers to observe canvassing] for over an hour and a half, while counting continues with no Republicans present."

Assuming the Twitter thread is correct, the bits of the conversation I quoted show that the problems in the original motion do not, in fact, exist (as of the time of the hearing, at least), and that observation distance was a separate issue brought up during the hearing.

> Hence why the judge ruled to allow observers closer.

This is actually a ruling from a different case (emphasis mine):

> Earlier on Thursday, a Pennsylvania state court judge ruled that observers could stand as close as 6 feet (2 meters) away while election officials counted mail-in and absentee ballots.

The case the article/Twitter thread I linked was in a US District Court.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#383
post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because if they leave, they'll have the pleasure of getting steamrolled by other countries, including the United States. Fundamentally, you're making an argument against democracy, and in favor of giving people who live in small states greater influence than people who live in large states. A person who moves a few miles across the border from Colorado to Wyoming suddenly sees their vote count for 3 times as much in…

So would you say Canada (the entire country of which has a smaller population than California) regularly gets steamrolled by other countries, including USA? And if not, then maybe all the small states need to do is band together into their own country, away from large state bullies

Sometimes it does. It certainly doesn't get the preferential treatment from the US that Wyoming gets. Would the US treat Wyoming better as a state or as a foreign country? Just as importantly, how much leverage would Wyoming have in dealing with foreign countries? How much leverage would it have in trade negotiations with the EU, or with the US, for that matter?

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#384
post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People in population centers tend to think similarly due to a similar environment. What a city desires in the nation's leader does not necessarily align with rural voters. You must see the danger in a few, albeit large, groups having the majority of the population. Say LA and New York decide that a communist leader would be best for the country. How the hell do residents outside the cities stand up against that in an…

Say that less people, but in key states decide that an autocratic fascist should be best for the country, despite more people voting for someone else? How do the majority stand up against that?

It comes down to the question of whether we are a nation of a single people or a nation of autonomous states. We cannot be a nation of a single people due to the diversity of people spread across an immense chunk of land. What is important to me in Alaska is only tangentially related to what is important in NYC. A popular vote is a path to disbanding states and removes an important protection by the states against a tyrannical national government. By maintaining states we allow issues of state importance to only be important in that state instead of requiring the whole nation be subject.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There really couldn’t be, no. The mechanisms by which people think there could are easily falsified.

Are you saying voter fraud can't be a victimless crime? What "couldn't be"? How do you falsify me voting for my grandmother with dementia? My grandma will never know, and neither will anyone else. Look, I am more into data-driven policy than the vast majority of people. But the data saying you don't need to make a change is not the same as the data saying you shouldn't make a change.

> How do you falsify me voting for my grandmother with dementia? My grandma will never know, and neither will anyone else.

Yes, you could absolutely do that. But you can't swing an election that way.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be worthwhile to look at the history of the electoral college [1]. It was not there to balance state powers (that's what the senate is for). It was a compromise between the people who did not want congress to be part of the voting (due to opportunity for corruption) and the ones that did not want a popular vote, because they did not trust the uneducated masses and feared mob rule. So the electoral college wa…

The article and your comment summarizes factions into simply "mob rule", and seem to lead the reader to believe the electoral college wasn't well thought out--just a compromise. While the 3/5ths idea is apalling, using it the way you've done is, in my opinion, done to try and enforce the idea that its fundamentally flawed. The electoral college is designed to balance power. " In The Federalist Papers, James Madison e…

You quote quite selectively. For example your first link also says:

"Madison acknowledged that while a popular vote would be ideal, it would be difficult to get consensus on the proposal given the prevalence of slavery in the South:

    There was one difficulty, however of a serious nature attending an immediate choice by the people. The right of suffrage was much more diffusive in the Northern than the Southern States; and the latter could have no influence in the election on the score of Negroes. The substitution of electors obviated this difficulty and seemed on the whole to be liable to the fewest objections.[31]"
So pretty much what I said, the direct popular vote would have been ideal in Madison's view and the electoral college was a compromise. In fact the compromise was because the southern states wanted voting power according to the slaves they owned without letting them vote.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#387
post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What constitutes a small margin? Even in Georgia the margin is just over 10,000 votes. Fraudulently casting that many votes undetected would be a non-trivial task.

> What constitutes a small margin? I'm sure that within the context of the discussion and the number of votes cast, you can come up with a meaningful number. > Fraudulently casting that many votes undetected would be a non-trivial task. Non-trivial is a low barrier.

> Non-trivial is a low barrier.

Okay, I will clarify. Fraudulently casting 10K votes undetected is impossible.

And hey, the only actual evidence we have is from a couple republicans who tried to bring fake ballots to a precinct in Philadelphia. Maybe the real fraud we should be investigating is how one candidate beat his predicted performance by several points two elections in a row. What are the odds of that?

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In practice, interested parties observe the process. It's relatively party based (where parties have better access). https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/polici... It's relatively difficult to pull off hoodwink when you've got adversarial observers standing there.

> In practice, interested parties observe the process. On paper, interested parties are supposed to observe the process. What actually happens in physical reality does not always match the guidelines laid out on paper. > It's relatively difficult to pull off hoodwink when you've got adversarial observers standing there. I read assurances about what happens in physical reality on a regular basis. Often, these assuranc…

> for the last 4 years that Russia "hacked" the 2016 election

There is a difference between disinformation before the election and actually changing ballots, as you well know.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rendering the federal government impotent by ensuring that 10% of rurals owned it but 90% of populous states were subject to it wouldn't discourage people from getting their policy goals done at the federal level it would insure that there wouldn't BE a federal level in 10 years.

"Rendering the federal government impotent" is a good thing in the eyes of the ~50% of the US that lives outside your filter bubble. Having a strong federal government is not the settled matter you seem to imply it is.

Depends what you mean by settled matter. In discussion, I'm sure you can find a lot of people that think it's a bad idea, and I'm ambivalent myself. But as a matter of reality a strong federal government is what we now have. I think the federal government and the executive in particular is much stronger than the founders thought it would ever be.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a separate conversation, though. I agree reducing poll locations can make some people less likely to vote, but it's not in the same category as fraud.

To commit fraud at the level required though just isn't plausible in a national election. Even in a close state like PA, we're going to end up talking about 45k+ votes. In MI, 100k+ votes, WI 20k+ votes, etc... All these states have mixes of R/Ds running things, and any fraud claims quickly ends up in grand conspiracy fallacy territory. This is not some 1000 vote situation like FL in 2000 (which was actually much mor…

20k in WI, 45k in PA.....let's call the baseline as a swing of 20,000 votes in a single state.

That would be 7-20x the impact of election fraud from the Patterson, NJ election case this year (estimates range from 1,000 to 3,000 votes affected). [1] There were four men charged in that incident. [2] So with about 30-100 personnel with malicious intent, distributed across a dozen election districts, you could theoretically swing an entire state's results in the 5-figure ballot range.

While this is not PROBABLE, we should acknowledge that it is POSSIBLE, and take steps to mitigate the risk accordingly. But basic enforcement of election integrity just outright sucks. Why else would someone feel so bold as to video themselves ballot harvesting and thinking it's ok?[3]

[1]https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/evidence-of-massive-voter-f...

[2]https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/paterson-press/2020/0...

[3]https://www.twincities.com/2020/09/28/project-veritas-video-...

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