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Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

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Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#331

Post by jbjohns »

matwood wrote: post #314
MagnumOpus wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to. In the US you can lose the nation by 3 million votes as long as you win 3-4 swing states in the presidential or senate vote -- be it your brother making 538 votes disappear or your staffers creating 203 ballots with your name on it...

3-4 swing states is still a national level. You're also talking about 20k-100k type numbers. This isn't someone winning by 100 votes. What's funny about this situation is that Biden is on track to win most of these states by a larger margin than Trump did against Clinton. She did ask for a recount, but I don't remember her ever going on and on about fraud.

Not fraud but she did write an entire book blaming Russia, and a whole host of other things.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#332

Post by AnthonyMouse »

EricDeb wrote: post #276
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> First, we do detect a small number of voter fraud cases. People have gone to prison for it. Fair enough, though now I'm wondering why I keep hearing "no shred of evidence of voter fraud" from so many people. > But voter fraud, on the "retail" level, is heavily penalized and extremely unlikely to impact outcomes. There are currently four states (AZ, GA, PA, WI) with less than 1% margin between the candidates. Georgi…

Trump also barely won MI, WI, and PA last time. No was nitpicking vote result curves at that time.. I'm sure they were equally as strange.

You were expecting Trump to question the results in states he won?

An accusation of hypocrisy doesn't tell you which time they were wrong to do it.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#333

Post by jcadam »

gwd wrote: post #239
btilly wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fortunately, as media reassure us, today voting fraud simply cannot happen: you'd need a whole conspiracy of dozens of people, a real, as one could call it, machine. This I find impossible to believe. How hard is it to intercept mail-in ballots, sign them, then mail them in? Who knows that you did so? I personally find it very implausible that in both elections that Trump was in he produced results about 3% better th…

> How hard is it to intercept mail-in ballots, sign them, then mail them in? Who knows that you did so? Well first of all, the person who was supposed to get the mail-in ballot in the first place. In Michigan, you can check to see whether they've received your mail-in ballot. Don't you think that if 100k Republicans in Michigan didn't receive their ballot at all, but checked and found that they had been registered as…

1. Halt counting (or at least 'reporting') in critical swing states simultaneously. We all saw this happen.

2. Kick out poll watchers

3. Figure out how many votes your preferred candidate needs.

4. Examine the voter rolls and see who never turned in a ballot.

5. Fill in ballots for those people (and if you're in a rush, don't even bother to vote in any down-ballot races) and mix them in with the legitimate ballots.

If you control a few key urban centers in a few key states - you can definitely pull this off. Given the behavior of the left over the last 4 years, I absolutely believe they did something like the above.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#334

Post by FeeJai »

MagnumOpus wrote: post #300
FeeJai wrote: post #272

Ok, so let's look what Merkel did what would never be possible in the US according to that post (and by the authors opinion proves that the US is so much more on the right than Germany): > In the 2008 financial crisis (and now again) the government paid part of workers’ wages to save jobs (Kurzarbeit) Trump went even further and sent checks directly to every taxpayer. > She stopped mandatory military service US got r…

>> She ran a balanced budget >That is considered as on the right in the US Every "right wing" US government in the last generation implemented substantial unfunded tax cuts that raised deficits and national debt... Politicians often say one thing when in opposition and do the oppositie when in power. Beyond that, you point out that "they US does it too" - accepting refugees, accepting gay marriage, making taxation mo…

> Politicians often say one thing when in opposition and do the oppositie when in power.

Totally agree, it's all talk and no do. Does not change the fact that intending to do so (or at least pretending the intent) would not make you a progressive leftist in the us as the author suggested.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#335

Post by AnthonyMouse »

alphabettsy wrote: post #197
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> First, we do detect a small number of voter fraud cases. People have gone to prison for it. Fair enough, though now I'm wondering why I keep hearing "no shred of evidence of voter fraud" from so many people. > But voter fraud, on the "retail" level, is heavily penalized and extremely unlikely to impact outcomes. There are currently four states (AZ, GA, PA, WI) with less than 1% margin between the candidates. Georgi…

There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud is what’s being said. It’s on the accusing party to provide that evidence and they haven’t. It also strikes me as strange that they’re targeting only the cities that they are. Detroit for example when it was actually Oakland and Kent Counties that most altered the outcome in Michigan for Trump. Election officials have many ways to audit elections for example knowing exac…

> It’s on the accusing party to provide that evidence and they haven’t.

But that's what I'm saying. What measures can we put into place to allow them to do that if it's actually true, or rule it out if it isn't?

I'm asking for a good way that someone could find evidence that someone else e.g. mailed in a large number of ballots fraudulently, and you're telling me that there is no evidence of that happening. Well yeah, that's the issue. What I want is a way to distinguish the case where there isn't evidence because it isn't happening from the case where there isn't evidence because we don't have a good system in place for detecting it.

I want the ability to show conclusively that this isn't happening if it isn't happening, not just a lawyer's argument that absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#336

Post by throwaway0a5e »

thu2111 wrote: post #286
motogpjimbo wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not American, so this comment confuses me. Why would illegal immigrants be allowed to vote or carry an official government-issued ID?

They wouldn't, it's just deliberate confusion. If an arm of the government knows someone is there illegally they're meant to report them for deportation or other handling, not offer them infrastructure and rights, but in the USA the problem of illegal immigration has reached such scales that a large part of the left basically advocates for giving up on border enforcement of any kind. They don't really campaign direct…

>They wouldn't, it's just deliberate confusion. If an arm of the government knows someone is there illegally they're meant to report them for deportation or other handling, not offer them infrastructure and rights,

You forgot the obvious middle ground, milk them for every penny.

If we had multiple classes of IDs you'd see every damn government transaction that requires ID come with a surcharge or different fee schedule for people using the variant that can be obtained without being a legal immigrant because those people can't complain.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#337

Post by matwood »

moduspol wrote: post #330
matwood wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I do share your skepticism that when the stakes are this high, nobody's trying to meaningfully affect this. Thing is, it's much easier to impact the result legally through voter suppression. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54380684 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-locations/so...

That's a separate conversation, though. I agree reducing poll locations can make some people less likely to vote, but it's not in the same category as fraud.

To commit fraud at the level required though just isn't plausible in a national election. Even in a close state like PA, we're going to end up talking about 45k+ votes. In MI, 100k+ votes, WI 20k+ votes, etc... All these states have mixes of R/Ds running things, and any fraud claims quickly ends up in grand conspiracy fallacy territory.

This is not some 1000 vote situation like FL in 2000 (which was actually much more complicated than everyone paints it out to be).

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#338

Post by arethuza »

thu2111 wrote: post #284
bartread wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK doesn't have national identification. The government tried to bring it in a decade or more ago but it was shot down by the successful no2id campaign. The UK also doesn't have a significant problem with electoral fraud: like the US it has robust processes in place to ensure that its (admittedly less than perfect) electoral system is implemented fairly[0], correctly, and with integrity. This doesn't depend on na…

Actual MPs disagree with you about that: https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/there-is-wides... "I believe the overwhelming majority of my constituents would be shocked if they knew the extent of corrupt election practices and voter fraud which happen each time there is an election. I want open and lawful elections, upholding the principle that every entitled voter should have one vote, and cast it freely."…

It would be interesting to see if he actually reported those cases to the relevant authorities. The Electoral Commission takes voting fraud pretty seriously:

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-w...

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#339

Post by ffdjjjffjj »

MagnumOpus wrote: post #291
chillwaves wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you commit fraud on the national level?

You don't need to. In the US you can lose the nation by 3 million votes as long as you win 3-4 swing states in the presidential or senate vote -- be it your brother making 538 votes disappear or your staffers creating 203 ballots with your name on it...

Which of course didn’t happen hear - Biden is on track to win by a clear electoral and popular margin. Florida in 2000 was decided by hundreds of votes though.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#340

Post by kthejoker2 »

kjaftaedi wrote: post #240
maxerickson wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What 'modern improvements' can be made over paper ballots?

Introduce a machine to print the ballot once candidates are selected. Voters take their properly formatted ballot, verify the information is correct, and drop it in a box. Machines should be able to do recounts quickly, and the paper trail receipts can be verified. No more having to worry about the different mistakes people make on their forms, and counts and recounts would be much faster and require less effort.

This is how it's done in Texas.
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