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Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

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Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#301

Post by vinay427 »

rayiner wrote: post #201
JamesBarney wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 18th century theory. In 21st century practice it's incredibly influential. Do we tax more for social security or cut benefits, do we extend medicare to 55 year olds or delay it until 70, can my daca friends get a job, can Icontinue to operate a company(Obamacare), not to mention war. It's far more influential than my city( or state government.(I live in Houston, this would probably be less true in states like New…

It’s not an 18th century versus 21st century thing. Switzerland manages to be a 21sr century country without equal representation at the federal level.

I live in Switzerland. There are a few key differences.

1. The scale of population difference between the most and least populous full cantons (that have equal representation in the Ständerat) is somewhat lower than CA versus WY, and they're geographically much (!) closer which I suspect at least allows for a bit more "intercantonal" exposure.

2. Even more importantly, in my opinion: the two houses in the bicameral system have essentially identical powers. There isn't a system of important executive or judicial appointments requiring only a Senate appointment (although the analogs here are blurry), so a majority of the national population's representatives must also sign off as well as a majority of cantons. Providing the Senate unique powers protect the tyranny of less-populous states without limiting the dependence on the federal government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Assembly_(Switzerland)

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#302

Post by ffdjjjffjj »

ve55 wrote: post #12

What I dislike about a lot of these potential fraud analysis techniques is that if a group that was performing fraud was aware of them, then they would simply perform the fraud 'properly' such that the given technique(s) don't show evidence (since they know what others are looking for and hoping to find, they simply ensure it isn't there). The same goes for similar techniques like Benford's law: once you know about t…

Another thing worth mentioning is it’s a lot easier to spread a faulty statistics analysis than it is to spread an explanation. I’ve seen a lot of viral posts about Benford’s law and the 2020 election. I finally dig up the data and the explanation - which is mundane - and yet I’m not seeing a bunch of viral “this is why those posts were wrong” responses.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#303

Post by camhart »

cycomanic wrote: post #257
tastyfreeze wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been thinking that maybe states should get an equal number of electoral votes. We would get the protection of the electoral college and every state would have an equal say.

It would be worthwhile to look at the history of the electoral college [1]. It was not there to balance state powers (that's what the senate is for). It was a compromise between the people who did not want congress to be part of the voting (due to opportunity for corruption) and the ones that did not want a popular vote, because they did not trust the uneducated masses and feared mob rule. So the electoral college wa…

The article and your comment summarizes factions into simply "mob rule", and seem to lead the reader to believe the electoral college wasn't well thought out--just a compromise. While the 3/5ths idea is apalling, using it the way you've done is, in my opinion, done to try and enforce the idea that its fundamentally flawed. The electoral college is designed to balance power.

" In The Federalist Papers, James Madison explained his views on the selection of the president and the Constitution. In Federalist No. 39, Madison argued that the Constitution was designed to be a mixture of state-based and population-based government. Congress would have two houses: the state-based Senate and the population-based House of Representatives. Meanwhile, the president would be elected by a mixture of the two modes.[35] "

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_Coll...

"Historians such as Charles A. Beard argue that No. 10 shows an explicit rejection by the Founding Fathers of the principles of direct democracy and factionalism, and argue that Madison suggests that a representative republic is more effective against partisanship and factionalism."

"Hamilton there addressed the destructive role of a faction in breaking apart the republic. The question Madison answers, then, is how to eliminate the negative effects of faction. Madison defines a faction as "a number of citizens, whether amounting to a minority or majority of the whole, who are united and actuated by some common impulse of passion, or of interest, adverse to the rights of other citizens, or to the permanent and aggregate interests of the community".[14] He identifies the most serious source of faction to be the diversity of opinion in political life which leads to dispute over fundamental issues..."

See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federalist_No._10

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#304

Post by nemo44x »

skunkworker wrote: post #165
User23 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chicago is famous for voter fraud, in the tens or even hundreds of thousands[1]. It's almost as if the USA has political machines that mastered electoral dipsy-doodle over a century ago. [1] https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:9GDrIH...

It seems like the "fraud" in that article was no more than people voting when they weren't on the voter registration rolls. Today because of the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 and the Help America Vote Act of 2002 require states to provide provisional ballots. While there probably was some "fraud", it looks like this is more of a process violation, and one barrier that fortunately has been eradicated.

In the book “Gang Leader for a Day” the author detailed how the local gangs and building mangers of various housing projects would coerce their members and tenants to vote and who to vote for. With retaliation if the person(s) didn’t comply.

For instance, the building manager could withhold things you needed. The gangs would also ensure they’d get preferential treatment from their aldermen, etc.

No idea if this was effective in influencing any outcomes.

My biggest concern with widespread mail-in voting is ballot stuffing (bribe for votes becomes easier) and abusive relationships forcing their family members (or community members) to vote a certain way by filling in the ballots themselves.

There’s a good reason the voting booth is private.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#305

Post by acdha »

zerocrates wrote: post #215
acdha wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> California and DC always vote Democrat, and Montana always vote Republican. Individual Republicans in CA and Democrats in MT have zero voice - their voices literally don't matter. This is only true if you hyper focus on the President (and ignore Bush/Reagan/Ford/Nixon in CA, Clinton in MT, etc.) - those voices are heard in the House and Senate, which have key impacts on what a President can actually do. It’s also o…

This discussion is about the Electoral College, of course it's focused on the President.

Yes, my point was that it wasn’t true that voices in certain states are ignored even if they don’t directly produce EC votes. A Republican Presidential candidate isn’t going to ignore California and New York voters who still elect members of Congress they’ll need to work with, donate the increasingly large amounts of money needed to run, and whose presence in the primaries affects who’s going to make it far enough to care about the EC.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#306

Post by tcgv »

michaelmrose wrote: post #277
jonhohle wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not a statistician or political scientist, but my intuition would say that it is probably easy to defeat any given statistical analysis of voting data, but would be difficult to defeat two or more simultaneously. In cryptographic terms, it might be possible to find a collision in MD5 or SHA1, but finding a collision in both for the same target payload would be significantly more difficult. This is actually a very…

- How does this work and simultaneously protect the secret ballot. For example how do I as an outside audit it if I can't check the a vote for foo wasn't counted as a vote for bar. I know in theory you could provide a means for THEM to verify it and again you have broken the secret ballot and they can prove to others how they voted. - With one technology used to secure the entire election on which hinges trillions of…

For one, a blockchain based voting system would allow individual voters to ensure that their votes haven't been tampered with, without breaking anonymity. If one or more voters fail to check their vote registered in the blockchain, they could submit a complain providing their voting key and voting receipt (this receipt could be any proof of vote, like a public verifiable signature provided by the blockchain at the time of voting)

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#307

Post by matwood »

btilly wrote: post #224
xyzzyz wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This "Chicago political machine" was later shown to have committed voter fraud in 1982. 26 people were convicted[1], and here's the grand jury report[2]. They had been getting away with it, until they didn't. Fortunately, as media reassure us, today voting fraud simply cannot happen: you'd need a whole conspiracy of dozens of people, a real, as one could call it, machine. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Illi…

Fortunately, as media reassure us, today voting fraud simply cannot happen: you'd need a whole conspiracy of dozens of people, a real, as one could call it, machine. This I find impossible to believe. How hard is it to intercept mail-in ballots, sign them, then mail them in? Who knows that you did so? I personally find it very implausible that in both elections that Trump was in he produced results about 3% better th…

> I personally find it very implausible that in both elections that Trump was in he produced results about 3% better than polls indicated he would.

We'll have to see once the final counting is done, but +/- 3% is within margin of error for most polls.

Polls also seem to have a hard time finding new voters to poll. It's very exciting to see the records numbers of people who voted, many for the first time.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#308

Post by 7952 »

ve55 wrote: post #12

What I dislike about a lot of these potential fraud analysis techniques is that if a group that was performing fraud was aware of them, then they would simply perform the fraud 'properly' such that the given technique(s) don't show evidence (since they know what others are looking for and hoping to find, they simply ensure it isn't there). The same goes for similar techniques like Benford's law: once you know about t…

A feature of simple paper based systems is that normal people can understand the system and can even help to validate the process. It may have flaws, but they are pretty apparent to everyone.

Technology and encryption seems far less easy to understand and more open to malicious complaints. A voter who doesn't trust the current system is not going to trust block chains or hashing algorithms.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#309

Post by blackboxlogic »

tastyfreeze wrote: post #89
maxerickson wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So take a step back. Why would (the people of/in) California and Texas and so on choose to support such a republic? As it is you've defined a circle. "It's a republic so it should be run based just on the borders of the constituents".

Yes that is how it should be. Each state has different interests. By having electoral votes based on population we are not avoiding the problem of population centers directing the country. How is electing a president different than votes for a constitutional amendment? Each state gets one vote there.

You've rediscovered the ancient art of drawing lines on a map to make some people more powerful than other people. Usually preferred by the 'some people'. Always followed immediate after by attempts to justify why cheating is good.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#310

Post by matwood »

jpxw wrote: post #261
belorn wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a golden opportunity for the left to implement a policy which historically the left has been advocating for and the right been blocking. National Identification. No more social security numbers, no knowledge about a name or a street. Practically every other country in the world has national identification and uses them as the building block for holding elections, social security, health care, licenses, drugs…

The left have been opposing voting requiring identification (on the grounds that it discriminates against those without it) for years. Even if they brought in national identification, they wouldn’t make it necessary for voting.

> The left have been opposing voting requiring identification (on the grounds that it discriminates against those without it) for years.

The left is worried that any ID scheme would be used to disenfranchise voters. Studies have shown that requiring an ID does not impact voter turnout for the most part, but we only need to look towards voter registration rules to see how the system can be gamed to prevent people to vote. Some states allow same day registration while others require 30 days, etc... I could think of similar rules around voter ID to add another hurdle to voting.

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