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Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

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Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#91

Post by nl »

save_ferris wrote: post #22
nl wrote: post #6

Am I the only centre-left type person in the world who thinks the Electoral College isn't a bad thing (in theory at least). In the Westminster 2-house system in Australia voters vote for representation from their seat. These seats have approximately the same number of people, but they also vote for an upper-house representative and the smaller states are over-represented in terms of population. This is because otherw…

> I don't think it's perfect, but in principle I don't see it as a bad things that people in say Montana have a means to influence the presidency. Under the electoral college system, voters in so-called swing states have much more influence on the outcome of the election than voters in states with established political supremacy. To your point above, in a system where the popular vote determines the outcome, every pe…

> voters in so-called swing states have much more influence on the outcome of the election than voters in states with established political supremacy

I can't imagine any system where there aren't "safe" areas that politicians essentially ignore.

Sometimes these "safe" states/areas aren't as safe as they were thought to be (2016 Midwest, 2020 Georgia and Arizona, Texas looks to be heading that way).

The Midwest is a perfect example: in 2016 people there felt that the Democratic party was ignoring their needs and switched their traditional trade-union based Democratic voting behaviour to Trump.

Areas get attention by changing their voting habits. I don't see this as a bad thing.

> On top of that, the electoral college enables the "faithless elector" scenario, in which chosen electors who cast the legally-binding vote for president opt to either vote against the wishes of the electorate or to abstain entirely[0].

Yes I agree entirely this needs to be fixed.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#92

Post by User23 »

IfOnlyYouKnew wrote: post #20
ve55 wrote: post #12

What I dislike about a lot of these potential fraud analysis techniques is that if a group that was performing fraud was aware of them, then they would simply perform the fraud 'properly' such that the given technique(s) don't show evidence (since they know what others are looking for and hoping to find, they simply ensure it isn't there). The same goes for similar techniques like Benford's law: once you know about t…

The system is secure and robust, at least with regards to the mechanics of individual votings. Among the main factors is its distributed nature. You just can't run a scam with senior citizen volunteers in thousands of individual precincts. Then, there are observers. Famous case from this week's election was Republicans complaining that their two dozen(!) observers weren't allowed closer than 6 feet to the ballots. It…

Chicago is famous for voter fraud, in the tens or even hundreds of thousands[1]. It's almost as if the USA has political machines that mastered electoral dipsy-doodle over a century ago.

[1] https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:9GDrIH...

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#93

Post by maxerickson »

mistermann wrote: post #81
maxerickson wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Michigan case was dismissed by the judge: https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/... As was the PA case: https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/11/07/trump-campaign-pa... Has the Trump campaign taken further action beyond what is discussed in your link? I know they had a press conference at the Four Seasons in Pennsylvania, did anything come of that?

> Michigan case was dismissed by the judge ------------------------------------ Thor Hearne, an attorney for the Trump campaign, said he wanted an order directing Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson to require "meaningful access" for campaign poll watchers to the counting of state ballots, plus access to videotaped surveillance of ballot drop boxes installed around the state after Oct. 1. Michigan Court of Claims Judge…

You can't prove a negative.

The point of my links is that there are not cases in court in Michigan or PA.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#94

Post by guscost »

Here’s someone who did analysis of 2020 NYT time-series data, and is trying to make a case that the currently-contested states show odd patterns. Note that this would be circumstantial evidence at best, but still a little fishy when compared with the timeline:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html

I made a GitHub repo of this analysis ported to Python3, with a quickstart and a matplotlib script, if anyone wants to try it. If nothing else it’s kinda fun to tinker with the data:

https://github.com/guscost/nyt-election-2020-analysis

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#95

Post by tastyfreeze »

umvi wrote: post #80
TheDong wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Federal law impacts all citizens. It doesn't just make laws concerning the states. Why should a man in wyoming's opinion on what federal laws I should live under count 70x as much as mine? Why should a minority of the country make a decision that impacts the majority of people?

Well if you believe Wyoming should just be steamrolled by California's desires 100% of the time, why shouldn't Wyoming secede from the union? In fact, why should any "small states" join the union in the first place if they are just going to be steamrolled by California and New York?

Being from Alaska I would argue that my vote for president has never counted. Some years there is a decision before my polls close.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#96

Post by js2 »

anonu wrote: post #67

I think arguably the electoral process makes fraud harder. If the goal was to tip the scales, in a popular vote you could basically do this anywhere across the country. But in an EV system, you would need to pick and choose 1 or probably more places (vulnerabilities) to attack to tilt things in your favor

I think arguably the electoral process makes fraud easier. If the goal was to tip the scales, in an electoral vote, the election is very close in the tipping point state, which is usually predictable ahead of the election. In 2016, you'd only have had to add 45K votes in PA. Conversely, if the vote were national, you'd have had to add 3M votes.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#97

Post by maxerickson »

tastyfreeze wrote: post #89
maxerickson wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So take a step back. Why would (the people of/in) California and Texas and so on choose to support such a republic? As it is you've defined a circle. "It's a republic so it should be run based just on the borders of the constituents".

Yes that is how it should be. Each state has different interests. By having electoral votes based on population we are not avoiding the problem of population centers directing the country. How is electing a president different than votes for a constitutional amendment? Each state gets one vote there.

Well, for one thing, the foundational document that the states used to establish the union has different rules for electing president than for modifying the union.

You aren't arguing that part of it, the part where people (likely) wouldn't put up with the system you propose.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#98

Post by gameman144 »

nanny wrote: post #63
Terrario wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What "protection" does the electoral college give to Kansas, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Idaho, or Montana? Their collective voice along with the rest of the “heartland” is the backbone of the GOP. Trump and Bush both won without the popular vote because the electoral college amplified their collective voice. The electorate doesn’t make them win, it gives them better odds. The campaign focus on swing states should explai…

Why should their voices be amplified while mine (in a rural part of NJ) is muffled? Why should the same persons vote be five times more powerful in Wyoming compared to if they lived in California? Why should we disenfranchise the millions of Trump voters in New York and millions of Biden voters in Texas? What about all the cities in red states and the rural areas in dense ones? I don't see a single good reason for th…

I think this is a better argument for proportional allocation of electoral votes per state instead of winner-take-all (a la Nebraska), rather than arguing against the electoral college itself. If you feel Trump voters' voices are muffled in NY or Biden voters' voices are muffled in Texas, I agree wholeheartedly and would be strongly in favor of proportional allotment of electors at the state level.

The electoral college, however, serves the explicit purpose of making Wyoming votes count more exactly because they are extremely disadvantaged when attempting to impact federal policy. The same argument against the electoral college could be made against the Senate (why should every state get the same number of Senators?), but I don't hear too many disagreements (yet, at least) that the Senate as an institution has value.

The top four states have roughly a third of the national population; if federal policy were enacted purely by population, why shouldn't they allocate all federal funds to themselves and deprive other states entirely? The Senate and the electoral college give enough of an advantage to small states that, even though no one or two small states are liable to flip an election by themselves, they are still able to have a voice in federal policy by coalition-building.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#99

Post by sthnblllII »

IfOnlyYouKnew wrote: post #36
grahamburger wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think of it as giving some representation to the land itself (and it's natural resources) as represented by the people who work and live there.

The coast of California would then like to send 20 electors (most of them with rather nice beards, some in wetsuits). Harvard wants to send another 40. Science is, after all, more important these days than natural resources. Just compare Switzerland (absolutely nothing of value in the ground) to Equatorial Guinea (top-10 oil reserves). The one export market where the US dominates is culture. Mind if Hollywood sends i…

Urban centres are always going to have an inherent political advantage because of the physically proximity to power. Shorter travel distance to lobby or protest government, closer polls, easier time canvasing, organizing political meetings etc. Have mechanisms to offset this so that rural and non-urban people who form the backbone of the economy are not disadvantaged is a good idea, although its hard to tell if the electoral college does too much to level the playing field or too little.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#100

Post by the1pato »

mistermann wrote: post #76
maxerickson wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In practice, interested parties observe the process. It's relatively party based (where parties have better access). https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/polici... It's relatively difficult to pull off hoodwink when you've got adversarial observers standing there.

> In practice, interested parties observe the process. On paper, interested parties are supposed to observe the process. What actually happens in physical reality does not always match the guidelines laid out on paper. > It's relatively difficult to pull off hoodwink when you've got adversarial observers standing there. I read assurances about what happens in physical reality on a regular basis. Often, these assuranc…

> I am not asserting that something improper has occurred here, but when journalists are asserting unequivocally and in unison that nothing improper has happened, because the US election system is non-exploitable (while providing zero evidence of this),

Yeah, this in particular has been very weird.

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