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Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#381

Post by K0SM0S »

Engineering-MD wrote: post #343
claytongulick wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4.3% is just simply wrong, even by absolute worst case measures. Please don't spread this number. Even in Wuhan, they revised the official number down to 1.4%, and every serious epidemiologist is saying it's likely much lower, because of undocumented cases. (Current models have it at 86% unreported).

Which model has it at 86% unreported? I just haven’t seen this particular study.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/scie...

> We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions.

I think that's what GP was talking about.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#382

Post by boomboomsubban »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #355
tagrun wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I gave two reasons, I'll give them here again: 1. Masks do work. Wearing a mask obviously provides a better protection than nothing for a healthy person. You can also read a few studies https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/003335491012500206 https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/744899/facemasks-hand-hyg... Mask isn't a substitute for hygiene and social-distancing, it's a complementary countermeasure. 2. You don't k…

>You can also read a few studies The first study only advocated wearing a mask when sick,or within three feet of someone who was sick, and concluded >there was no detectable additional benefit of hand sanitizer or face masks over targeted education on overall rates of URIs, but mask wearing was associated with reduced secondary transmission And from the second >facemasks seemed to prevent household transmission of in…

I made a mistake. I was reading about a study yesterday trying to show that stomach problems were a common symptom for people with coronavirus. This had me thinking "asymptomatic" meant showing irregular symptoms, when it is showing no symptoms.

That said, if you are asymptotic you aren't coughing or sneezing, so I'm unsure of how helpful a mask would be.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#383

Post by dunefox »

Aeolun wrote: post #371
ekianjo wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Man sorry to say but all your comments are completely wrong. - Social distancing does not exist in large cities like osaka and Tokyo. And that's a lot of people. Try to take a train at any time of the days and see if you can keep more than 10cm apart from anyone else. Good luck. - Masks: there's no masks sold anywhere as we speak. And that's been a month already. - Washing hands: more common than in other countries m…

> I can see parents and kids going together to play in parks with no care whatsoever. I don’t know if they have no care. They’ve just weighed the horror of staying in their home with a kid for days on end against their chances of getting infected and chosen what makes sense for them.

So they decide to risk their own and their childrens lives as well as countless others just because they cannot stand their children for more than a couple of hours. Very responsible.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#384

Post by mschuster91 »

MikeAmelung wrote: post #152
mschuster91 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Italy had over 1400 deaths by that point in their confirmed infection count. Italy has the problem that exploding rents after the financial crisis forced many young people to live with their parents and grandparents which not only means that they're heading for a demographic disaster as it's hard to get kids when grandma lives with you but also that the coronavirus has it easy to spread to elderly patients which ar…

It sounds like you've hit on a reason that it might not be as bad for anyone else. Grandma and grandpa are sitting around having dinner with a bunch of asymptomatic but infected young adults. Everybody rubs their faces together when they show up and leave. It's a recipe for disaster.

The US has a different problem - people showing up sick (or symptomless but infected) at work because they cannot afford to stay home or lose their job.

Germany... let's just say we had to enact strict lockdowns due to utter idiots going to "corona parties" and God I wish I were joking here.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#385

Post by steve_g »

chrischen wrote: post #149
adev_ wrote: post #78

Not so surprising. You have also the same outliers with Hong Kong and Taiwan. - In Japan, people naturally respect social distancing. Touching someone is considered rude, everyone bows instead of shaking hands and nobody kiss. - Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. - Washing hands is common, being clean (bath cult…

- People do shake hands in Japan. In Western countries hand-shaking is limited almost exclusively to business (I’d imagine the same goes for Japan). - Washing hands is common, but not necessarily any more of a practice than in Western countries. But in many places like in subway station bathrooms they do not have soap. Some of the cultural things like mask wearing (which was born out of the density and close proximit…

Maybe it's not a big demographic on Hacker news (or non-US western countries either), but there's a lot of hand-shaking that goes in in churches. That was true in my church up until a few weeks ago.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#386

Post by lonelappde »

stubish wrote: post #231
maps7 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. We're told that masks do not work

Look at who is telling you masks do not work. None of the authoritative sources I've seen over here have said that. They say things that can be misinterpreted that way, like "don't stop transmission" or "don't need masks" or "don't help as much". I haven't seen an authoritative statement that they don't help, either catching or spreading. Yet over here, despite many households already having good masks due to recent…

The CDC was being intentionally misleading to manipulate the public instead of speaking the plain uncomfortable truth that masks are useful but in a shortage (caused by catastrophic government failure at a simple task of stockpiling cheap nonperishable, valuable equipment) they want you to leave masks for people who need them *more. This has been called out by at least one epidemiologist.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#387

Post by lonelappde »

mirimir wrote: post #237
barry-cotter wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scarves are about the least effective makeshift masks, catching less than 50% of virus sized particles. A tea towel/dish cloth catches over 70% and a vacuum cleaner bag is over 80%, almost as good as a surgical mask. > Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory Infections among the General Population https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/

But breathing through a vacuum cleaner bag is too hard. Still, it might work if you did a radical pleat. I'll try it. As I recall, two layers of cotton t-shirt is the best option.

That would be awesome but I think you meant a "radial" pleat.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#388

Post by sunstone »

ekianjo wrote: post #345
adev_ wrote: post #78

Not so surprising. You have also the same outliers with Hong Kong and Taiwan. - In Japan, people naturally respect social distancing. Touching someone is considered rude, everyone bows instead of shaking hands and nobody kiss. - Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. - Washing hands is common, being clean (bath cult…

Man sorry to say but all your comments are completely wrong. - Social distancing does not exist in large cities like osaka and Tokyo. And that's a lot of people. Try to take a train at any time of the days and see if you can keep more than 10cm apart from anyone else. Good luck. - Masks: there's no masks sold anywhere as we speak. And that's been a month already. - Washing hands: more common than in other countries m…

So that leaves either green tea or nato as the magic antidote.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#389

Post by l_davis »

unishark wrote: post #362
l_davis wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I ordered cotton masks from Etsy. They are supposed to arrive by the end of the month. Select vendors in the US for speed. Amazon has lots of cotton masks, but they all seem to be shipped from China, which means they will take awhile to arrive. (Am assuming US buyers. Looks like Etsy vendors are all over though so you can probably find a vendor locally in many countries.) There are plenty of patterns for cotton masks…

I ordered something from Japan last week. I was worried about delays due to travel restrictions and they had a warning about them on the website. But it arrived in the US two days. It wasn't overnight shipping or anything fancy or expensive either. I was expecting 5+ days.

I order lots of stuff from Japan, from Amazon US from Japan-based sellers. It's taken anywhere from a few days to two months (my last purchase). So I didn't want to risk it. Didn't find Japanese sellers of masks anyway.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#390

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

chmod775 wrote: post #44
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This appears to be true, it is #1 in hospital beds (not the same as ICU beds, but should be correlated) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_...

> but should be correlated It's not, as shown by the very link you posted. ICU beds are a separate column in that table. Japan only has ~7.3/100k.

That seems to be correct. Oh well, I hope that the link helped.
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