Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

japantimes.co.jp

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 430 posts

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#21

Post by eldavido »

deelowe wrote: post #12
klipt wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if the whole pandemic could have been prevented if we just manufactured masks at a higher rate and everyone wore them. Now even hospitals are running out.

I cannot for the life of me understand why we aren't turning every available textile mill into mask manufacturers right now. It should be trivial to do and clothes aren't a critical item. I'm sure most countries have planned something like this as it's a common need during major wars. We're basically saying that since it's not 100% effective, so it's not worth it. Meanwhile, neither is social distancing, but that's s…

Because different environments yield different behavior. Just like in finance or business.

I feel like we've grown accustomed to a world where money is readily available (low interest rates), there's relative peace/safety, little trade friction, and we can ship things around the world cheaply.

Maybe we need to let the pendulum swing back a bit and do a little more manufacturing in the US? The problem is that it probably isn't economically viable except in times of crisis. So unless the federal or state government comes out and subsidizes it outright (something they do do in China, btw) it probably won't happen.

I do, on the other hand, think the last few years might be peak globalization. Wages are rising in China, there's more trade tension, and more environmental consciousness (shipping)...I'm no Trump supporter, but you kind of can see the outline of how some manufacturing might be coming back to the US.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#22

Post by CobrastanJorji »

tomerico wrote: post #11
bruxis wrote: post #5

> New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more . This is an important factor that may indicate this "outlier" is more of a delay, rather than a reality of some exception. As a resident, I'm quite concerned ab…

Extreme testing policies wouldn’t hide exponential growth - if it is growing exponentially, you’d expect the number of people meeting the criteria to also grow exponentially.

It wouldn't hide it FOR LONG. In a month, we'll know which hypothesis was correct.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#23

Post by MikeAmelung »

tptacek wrote: post #19
sendos wrote: post #16

People are mentioning this is due to lack of testing, but if that were the case wouldn’t hospitals be overwhelmed like they have been in Italy and elsewhere? Testing or no testing if hospitals run out of ventilators for people in need, or out of masks, that would still happen if the disease was spreading like it does elsewhere

The counterclaim is that Japan has an unusually high per capita number of ICU beds.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-co...

So is this nonsense?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#24

Post by justicezyx »

Japnese are like Chinese, are quite obedient, therefore can follow quite throughly of the checks in the entry and exit of the country.

Plus, itself has much more modern and disciplined public health system, with more experiences dealing with similar issues.

Last but not least, the Japan lands are literally isolated from continents, making the transition of virus through other medium much more easier to track.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#25

Post by dguaraglia »

sendos wrote: post #16

People are mentioning this is due to lack of testing, but if that were the case wouldn’t hospitals be overwhelmed like they have been in Italy and elsewhere? Testing or no testing if hospitals run out of ventilators for people in need, or out of masks, that would still happen if the disease was spreading like it does elsewhere

I have no real data to back this up, but it could also be that there's a lower number of comorbidity across the average population. Or it could be that Japanese have perfected 'social distancing'.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#27

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

tptacek wrote: post #19
sendos wrote: post #16

People are mentioning this is due to lack of testing, but if that were the case wouldn’t hospitals be overwhelmed like they have been in Italy and elsewhere? Testing or no testing if hospitals run out of ventilators for people in need, or out of masks, that would still happen if the disease was spreading like it does elsewhere

The counterclaim is that Japan has an unusually high per capita number of ICU beds.

This appears to be true, it is #1 in hospital beds (not the same as ICU beds, but should be correlated)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_...

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#28

Post by eldavido »

greedo wrote: post #17
deelowe wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot for the life of me understand why we aren't turning every available textile mill into mask manufacturers right now. It should be trivial to do and clothes aren't a critical item. I'm sure most countries have planned something like this as it's a common need during major wars. We're basically saying that since it's not 100% effective, so it's not worth it. Meanwhile, neither is social distancing, but that's s…

Most of the textile industry has moved to Asia in the last 30 years.

This is such an important point and so widely misunderstood.

I feel like most Americans, when talking about the loss of US manufacturing, think of Ohio, Indiana, and other "rust belt" states, when the reality is, a huge amount of textile production centering on the east coast, from furniture manufacturing in North Carolina, to paper mills and cotton processing down to Atlanta, is gone.

My working theory is that it's because those places are national election battleground states. Just kind of shocking when you realize there are 30-40K coal miners in the entire US, not even a Google worth of people, let alone a midsize city, and this small group is deciding our elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_mining_in_the_United_Stat...

Post reply on HN