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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#371

Post by bradleybuda »

tdeck wrote: post #349
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

Not buy these index funds. If you don’t want to own the entire market, don’t buy funds that seek to own the entire market. Funds like ESGV which exclude companies with poor governance have existed for a very long time - I can’t find a clear answer as to whether or not it will buy SpaceX, but I’m sure you can find funds that cater to your desires.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#372

Post by __MatrixMan__ »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

It would be very nice if we had a system where the money was backed by some kind of consensus about quality of life. But what we have has more to do with compulsion.

The more dollars there are, the more deeply in debt we are. If these were interpersonal debts where we all owe the dollars to each other such that they go away when whatever promise is eventually kept, that would be a tight knit society. But instead we're all indebted to the banks, so instead we have a lot of collateral at risk, and a lot of uncertainty about whether it's a stable arrangement.

If there isn't enough money to satisfy the asking prices set by the owners of these abstractions, then we can always go deeper into debt until there is. Or we could have a debt jubilee and let the prices re-settle to something more in tune with reality.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#373

Post by chii »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

High valuations and other people's wealth doesn't need to improve _your_ individual quality of life - just the quality of life of someone who's willing to pay and the participants of that system.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#374

Post by KPGv2 »

riffraff wrote: post #321
roflulz wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The S&P Shariah index fund is required to exclude SpaceX and already exists https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-shar...

Why? Was space exploration incompatible with Sharia? Is it the pornography bit of xAI?

One presumes it's because a huge amount of its revenue comes from defense contracts, which are haram. Here is n excerpt from the fund's exclusion criteria:

> S&P 500 Shariah Industry Exclusions. The index universe consists of all the constituents in the S&P 500 Shariah, excluding companies classified as part of GICS sub-industries 20101010 (Aerospace & Defense), 40203040 (Financial Exchanges & Data), 40201060 (Transaction & Payment Processing Services).

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#375

Post by senderista »

bonzini wrote: post #333
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI in space, for all that sweet sweet latency.

More like for all that sweet sweet cooling capacity. EDIT: guys, it's sarcastic... since the parent was talking about latency, cooling is something that is even worse in space than latency

This has been debunked countless times. You can't cool things efficiently in space.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#376

Post by energy123 »

nixon_why69 wrote: post #182
jandrewrogers wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are growing revenue at a high rate then taking profit is a misallocation of resources. That is short-term thinking. It is much better to reinvest in revenue growth. You can take small profit now or much larger profit later. Insisting that companies need to be profitable even when growing revenue rapidly is failing the marshmallow test.

The point is that the unit economics are way worse because inference is expensive. Cost of goods sold matters, even if you're reinvesting profits.

But we don't have visibility on the COGS until they IPO and file, right? So where is all this premature judgement coming from about their unit economics?

(not pointing the finger only at you, at least you identified that gross margins is the correct thing to look at rather than net profit!)

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#377

Post by tonfa »

newshackr wrote: post #215
s1artibartfast wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why? the cards are on the table. If you buy a turd from me after I disclose the composition, that is on you

You can't sell these ETFs without incurring capital gains, potentially large. So it isn't really a choice.

If you're truly convinced there's nefarious reasons for including megacap IPOs in passive index, you can always short the stock (or use derivatives) by the same amount.

I'm not sure you'll come out ahead. (Personally I don't get the outcry, except for nasdaq which has fairly stupid rules, delaying the inclusion of megacaps won't make the problem go away, but probably increase since the float will be massively larger). It's inherent to being a passive index.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#378

Post by dh2022 »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #207
cowmix wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll overpay -- but not by trillions.

Sure but SpaceX can get you into orbit for $1400 per kilogram, and future projection and goal is $100 per kilogram. The competition is at $15,000 per kilogram. I think it's a no-brainer for anybody trying to get anything into orbit. Unless someone figures out superior tech that surpasses SpaceX, I'm just not seeing why anyone would spend more for less capable and costly rockets.

At the rates you quote, $1 T (the size of the market) is 714,285 tons of stuff in the space each year. I don’t think there is enough space in space for that much cargo.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#379

Post by thephyber »

gruez wrote: post #173
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?

How about 1 more quarter of earning reports and estimates?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#380

Post by brikym »

tdeck wrote: post #349
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

I asked this the other day. The response was to buy VGT instead of QQQ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48324097#48334357
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