I'm still astounded that Polymarket, as a feature, is embedded inside Substack. Not a third-party plugin but baked into the platform. YouTube is one thing. It's practically ubiquitous in terms of video sharing but Polymarket?
Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
371–380 of 559 posts
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#372Earlier quoted context omitted.
well I see more problematic the people actually doing the Iran attacks and murder of heads of state. Betting on those is distasteful, but doing those things is where the damage lies.
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Ali Khamenei was recently murdered, at a price tag of several tens of billions of dollars, so far. His more radical son now occupies his former position. As a result, is the world a better place?
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#373Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've seen contracts on whether California will burn this summer. Any bum defending these contracts is to me either a shill or way too dumb to understand the concept of incentives. Oh and there was an Israeli journalist that got life threats because he reported that an Iranian missile struck some place in Israel, and apparently there was a huge bet on it on polymarket.
Funny how average HNer is opposing Flock cameras that solve real crimes by covering it up as a "freedom" yet completely fine regulating contracts with hypothetical incentives.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#374Interesting comments here. I'd rather have prediction markets than casinos or sports betting services, because in the latter, you're playing again the house which can and will ban you for winning too much, while prediction markets are simply market makers taking a fee. Prediction markets are also regulated by the CFTC as they're futures contracts technically.
Seems like you're still betting against the house, you just can't be banned for winning too much
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#375Earlier quoted context omitted.
Enough people do care about pro sports that someone who doesn't still needs to worry about being caught in a riot should something like this happen. (they already worry about riots for real wins/losses)
There's also known relationship between sport betting and domestic violence.
The main relationship is to all gambling. Sports likely gets assumed to make it worse because people still believe the myth that the Super Bowl is the worst DV day of the year.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#376These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.
This is very naive. Many people have incentives to manipulate the financial markets, also with real world consequences. Should we ban financial markets as a result? Do you really think that there are no people, who have bet on the price of something in one direction or the other, who enact real world consequences on people or other entities in order to ensure their bet? This is par for the course.
These people committed crimes, such as the catch all 'securities fraud'. Polymarket is unregulated and lots of ways to commit ethical fraud without committing legal fraud.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#377These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.
Very close already. Death threats went to this journalist; seems someone bet on missile hits. https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-jour... It also incentivizes leaks from insiders, sometimes endangering others. A soldier was charged for betting on a military operation. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas... And of course throwing pro sports, but that's been happening for ag…
Leaks from insiders are always good.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#378Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unless you short the property. Essentially, sell it now on the bet that it will drop in value later. Then it burns down and you repurchase the vacant lot and return the property to the original owner. Evil, but most everything in real estate is evil.
And that's exactly the problem with Polymarket and such, it gives an incentive to be destructive because that's easy. Entropy is easy. With an insurance this trick won't work, because the insurance company will notice what you are doing. Polymarket doesn't care.
I don't think any corporation "cares" about social issues, but, fwiw, polymarket isn't as ok with it as you imply. Polymarket reportedly detected the suspicious behavior, reported it, then worked with investigators to nab Gannon Ken Van Dyke.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#379Earlier quoted context omitted.
Whoever did that deserves a few years in prison. Normally I'm not too much of a friend of draconian BS - but accurate reports of temperature, air pressure and wind speed are incredibly important for the safety of air travel. It's bad enough when such systems fail due to whatever sort of issue, but the last thing aviation needs is people intentionally blowing holes into the swiss cheese security model -.-
Also bad if such crucial information is based on a single sensor with barely any physical security
Well usually there isn’t an incentive to mess with this type of critical infrastructure, and yet, behold, the externalities.
Even foreign actors during war time wouldn’t go through the effort of messing with individual temperature sensors.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#380I don't usually see advertisements, but I was in a position recently to see a real-life television stream, and I was quite surprised to see them run an advertisement for Kalshi. I was pretty surprised that something like this would be advertised to normal people. I'd half expect the next ad to be for a hitman, or for beating your wife, or something. Seems crazy that this is tolerated whatsoever.
How is it any worse than ads for beer or sugar water?